WI Portuguese, but no Spanish, voyages of discovery in 1400s and 1500s?

raharris1973

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What if the Reconquista stretched out longer and marriage alliances of Castille and Portugal were less successful, resulting in a Spain too distracted by events on the peninsula (and maybe in the Med) to undertake Atlantic expeditions and explorations?

Is there a plausible way to slow down Castille this much, perhaps by a hundred years, yet not slow down Portuguese seafaring and other European developments like the spread of the Renaissance, gunpowder weaponry and Gutenburg's printing press not at all?

If so, imagine the Portuguese discover Brazil while trying to round Africa, if not earlier.

With no comparable Castillian effort to sail west, and presuming no efforts by other European monarchies in northern Europe to send anything other than discreet fishing expeditions to the west, how long would it take the Portuguese to a) map the Brazilian coast, b) discover the Caribbean, c) discover Mesoamerica, d) discover Peru and e) subjugate or conquer any of the same?
 

raharris1973

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Also, if Spain is not as united and as powerful, could this delay or entirely forestall the expulsion of Jews from the Spanish kingdoms, or at least forestall Spain's ability to press Portugal into taking a similar course, and allow the Portuguese empire to have some Jewish communities mixed in throughout the larger Catholic communities?
 
Also, if Spain is not as united and as powerful, could this delay or entirely forestall the expulsion of Jews from the Spanish kingdoms, or at least forestall Spain's ability to press Portugal into taking a similar course, and allow the Portuguese empire to have some Jewish communities mixed in throughout the larger Catholic communities?
As I remember there was no big effort before Colombus as, as you pointed out, they were too busy with the Reconquista.

The Portuguese might have discovered Brazil IOTL before 1500, there might even have been secret expeditions. If there is not Spanish competition, the Portuguese might keep a way tighter lid on what they were doing. People would just see spice ships coming back with not even a vague idea of the route taken. IOTL, they had to publicise it a tiny bit to assert their claim against Spain.

The point about the jews is quite interesting as it's argued it's the influx of jews that allowed Manuel to finance a lot of his explorations.
 
Agree with Tanc49.
Also: Only Portugal doing business in the New World would mean way less colonisation altogether. A few spots along the coastline only for quite a while. The Caribbean may be discovered a few decades after Brasil, Mesoamerica, too, perhaps, but Peru may remain undiscovered for quite a while. Certainly no wholesale conquests like Pizarro`s and Cortez`.
 
The French were equipped to go into the Americas in a big way. They actually were the original founders of Rio de Janeiro, not the Portuguese, who kicked them out. They also sent the first real expedition up the North American coast.

The French had two problems. First they kept being the second entrant in the colonial markets, or if they were first faced competition almost immediately. The second was France's continental commitments. Spain did both, but the Habsburgs had a collection of kingdoms that included, significantly, always at least part of the Netherlands and Italy and eventually included Portugal. Castille itself could focus on the Americas, with interventions in Europe on occasion, much as England later did. The French kings could have opted out of intervening in Italy, but they had to make their northeastern frontier their first priority and that means directing spending to armies and fortresses.

With no Castillian presence in the Americas, you don't get rid of the continental problem for the French, but you do get rid of most of the second entrant problem. And this may help with Italy. If the POD is that Spain concentrates on the Med and ignores the Americas, the French don't bother trying in Italy after 1498. If the POD is a weak Castille or Spain, the French don't face much competition in Italy. I'm not sure what happens with the Netherlands. But no Castille in the Americas benefits the French most and they probably wind up taking over Mexico as well as Cuba at the least. But they may not go into Canada in this scenario.

This raises the option of centralized American states surviving, most likely in the Andes though you can't rule out a Mayan comeback. They still get hit hard by smallpox. Also, the Incas were heading towards a collapse due to overcentralization and pouring too much resources into ancestor worship. The Aztecs were always one bad decade from being taken down by their enemies. But the Incas and the natives of what is now Mihuacan did have metallurgy, so if they don't get hit by Castillian conquistadors in the 1520s and 1530s, and their first contact with Europeans is more peaceful, there is a fighting chance for some of these states to survive.

Also this affects what became the Philippines, Luzon probably winds up being taken over by China.
 
The French were equipped to go into the Americas in a big way. They actually were the original founders of Rio de Janeiro, not the Portuguese, who kicked them out. They also sent the first real expedition up the North American coast.
Do you have a good source about it? That sounds quite interesting.
 
There's a lot of butterflies between those two. You could very well end up with a Portuguese or Dutch Philippines.
I would vote against it becoming Portuguese.

They were already stretched very very thin, plus the Philippines are not at a "knot" of trade.

The Portuguese took Qilwa, Malacca, Cochin, Aden, Hormuz... Places where trade had to go through. That way they could control trade networks and be the Lords of the Sea.

The Philippines are a bit out aren't they? You're just as good controlling Macao and Malacca
 
I would vote against it becoming Portuguese.

They were already stretched very very thin, plus the Philippines are not at a "knot" of trade.

The Portuguese took Qilwa, Malacca, Cochin, Aden, Hormuz... Places where trade had to go through. That way they could control trade networks and be the Lords of the Sea.

The Philippines are a bit out aren't they? You're just as good controlling Macao and Malacca

True but if they control the South American silver trade instead of Spain then there's a lot more incentive to have the Philippines since trade across the Pacific will have to pass by there anyway on the way to China.
 
"True but if they control the South American silver trade instead of Spain then there's a lot more incentive to have the Philippines since trade across the Pacific will have to pass by there anyway on the way to China."

They won't. Portugal is stretched too thin to take over Mexico or Peru. Either these places go to France or they stay under native control.

If there is a "Manila Galleon" at all in this timeline, its Chinese. And no Manila Galleon or a Chinese version both produce lots of butterflies.
 
It is possible for the galleons to pass via taiwan instead..Northern Luzon was the intermediary in the Majapahit-Ryukyu trade..so this trade would continue instead..
 
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