WI: Portugal keeps control of Mombasa and the Swahili coast in 1729?

Portugal famously lost Mombasa and control and much influence over the swahili coast in 1697 against the Omani empire, which was at its peak in the late 17th century.


In 1728, during a period of instability and civil war in the Omani empire, the Sultan of Pate Bwana Tamu Mkuu revolted against the omanis (the omanis had become unpopular in the swahili coat, partially because of sectarian differnces between the Ibadis omanis and the shafi'i swahilis) and asked the portuguese in Goa for help, portugal managed to briefly take control of Pate and Mombasa in march 1728. In the following weeks most of the swahili coast made formal submission to the Portuguese Crown, and portugal regained some of its former trade influence.

However the portuguese commander Luis de Mello de Sampaio left behind Alvaro Caetano de Mello e Castro as Governor of Mombasa, and he proved to be unable to keep any discipline among his soldiers, and he and the garrison lost support from the local nobility and townspeople. Despite pleas by the governor of Pate Antonio de Albuquerque Coelho (a Brazilian) on the behald of the Sultan Bwana Tamu, Alvaro Caetano did nothing, disgusted by his treatment at the hands of caetano, the local noble Manni Hannid decided to switch sides in april 1729, taking the portuguese in mombasa as well as those in Zanzibar by surprise (those were quickly overran), the Pate garrison was attacked by June, the two garrison in Pate and Mombasa stayed in their fort until November when he fled to Goa.

Meanwhile a portuguese fleet of 5 ships and 1,250 men (which would have outnumbered the besieging arab and native forces) had been assembled in goa to help the defenders and sailed and arrived in the swahili coast in january 1730, but seeing that both forts had surrendered, they returned to goa. However the second, half hearted attempt at retaking the forts in May 1730 failed because of a Hurricane.

Famous Historian of Portugal (among other things) C.R. Boxer speculates in "The Portuguese onthe Swahili Coast 1593-1729" that had the other, Brazilian Governor Antiono de Albuquerque been appointed at mombasa instead of the tactless Alvaro Caetano, the rebellion of mombasa would have very likely been avoided,

furthermore the Omani were at the time far from their apex and likely were unable to retake the cities anytime soon, which means portugal wouldn't have to fear losing mombasa or pate or zanzibar during the costly wars against the Marathis.

So, what if Portugal had kept Mombasa and influence over the Swahili coast - this is also a more general question if portugal never lost it in 1697 in the first place, although it would have to face a stronger oman at the time -

Could portugal have kept it durably, or would it have lost at a later date? Zanzibar and the Swahili coast rebelled against Oman in 1784 IRL, but were defeated, would they also do it there? Considering portugal's history in the 18th century, it seems likely it would be able to keep it during that century

More worryingly, in the 1820s-1830s, Portugal would be in a civil war assuming minimal butterfly, at the same time Oman, now allied with Britain, was stronger and IRL invaded Mombasa in 1837, now the history of Oman would likely be very different, but i don't know nearly enough to speculate about this.

If portugal manages to keep control over the swahili coast and zanzibar through the early 19th century, would it reduce british influence in east africa and could portugal get a decent claim on part of east africa (at least, i think, the more coastal part and part of highlands, not so much the region around lake victoria), would britain want these too and could there be some dispute between the claims?

Thanks for your answers.
 
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I was thinking that France could get it quickly, IRL Le Bourdonnais (Governor of Reunion and Mauritius) joined the portuguese for a few years around the late 1720s - 1732 with the intent to retake mombasa, a decade later he would ask, with the support of the french court for portugal to drop any claim on the region north of cape delgado (North of Mozambique).

I doubt portugal would give it away, but it could perfectly lose control over the region during the 7YW, and maybe france could get it, alternatively britain could take advantage from the victory to seize it (and anyway would likely take zanzibar anyway during the napoleonic wars)
 
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