A Communist revolution in 1975 would not last long. The USA had a lot of interests in Portugal and they would not support. Plus the North is very anti-communist. It could lead to the civil war result but in the end the North would win and we can end with a more leftist Portugal.
WI: Portugal goes red in 1975
- Thread starter Alexpira
- Start date
This would have major butterflies for the Spanish transition to democracy. If Portugal goes red after a democratic revolution then the Spanish military and conservative Francoist leadership would think that it would happen in Spain too.
I can see a crack down on the protests happening and the Prime Minister at the time, Carlos Arias Navarro, siding with the military and their representatives in parliament (El Búnker) which would strangle the OTL transition before it really started.
Although the pro-democracy King would have had massive sway in the army their fear of a repeat of the Portuguese democratic revolution turning communist would probably make them ignore the King.
Therefore you could have a Communist Portugal being invaded by Spain under military rule, supported by NATO due to reasons Tocomocho said above.
How long the military rule in Spain could last, I don't know. The Spaniards were yearning for democracy and to become part of Western Europe. However, if their chance after the death of Franco is stopped, I don't know when it would come again.
I can see a crack down on the protests happening and the Prime Minister at the time, Carlos Arias Navarro, siding with the military and their representatives in parliament (El Búnker) which would strangle the OTL transition before it really started.
Although the pro-democracy King would have had massive sway in the army their fear of a repeat of the Portuguese democratic revolution turning communist would probably make them ignore the King.
Therefore you could have a Communist Portugal being invaded by Spain under military rule, supported by NATO due to reasons Tocomocho said above.
How long the military rule in Spain could last, I don't know. The Spaniards were yearning for democracy and to become part of Western Europe. However, if their chance after the death of Franco is stopped, I don't know when it would come again.
As mentioned, the Azores were strategically valuable enough to do so. I agree that there would be problems with the will of the civilians back home. But if a civil war broke out, Lisbon might try to use the North Atlantic Treaty to get help.
Too close to UK and France and West Germany and all that, to not act... albeit dangerously close to act TOO unrestrainedly. The medias are also too close for 'unlawfull' acts to happen, same for Mexico. Dangerous game of measuring use of force.
Imagine if there is Vietnam-anti-sandinistas grade events happening... Like Guernica(?) Bombing 2,0....