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The Brazilian War of Independence was fought between 1822 and 1825, and ended with a Portuguese recognition of Brazilian sovereignty. But what if things had turned out differently?

The Portuguese troops were much better prepared and equipped than the Brazilian ones, if they only had commited a little bit more and made fewer tactical mistakes they could have won.

How would history progress in that scenario?

The Portuguese Cortes' plan was to turn back Brazil into a "normal" colony (they'd been elevated to a united kingdom with Portugal during the Napoleonic wars), but I imagine the war could be enough to have slapped some sense into their heads.

If were them, I would probably do something along these lines:
  • Formally abolish the United Kingdom and declare Brazil to be "an integral part of Portugal", but without closing the ports and while still giving some autonomy to local authorities
  • Divide Brazil into several smaller states. Ressurect the historical State of Maranhão in the North and possible create a new state in the South composed of Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio grande do Sul as Cisplatina/Uruguay. This would leave Brazil proper with only the Central and Southeast regions.
  • Give these states a relatively fair amount of representation in the Cortes, but, at the same time, centralize some aspects of administration.
  • Try to promote Portuguese culture and nationalism in Brazil
Now, it's relatively plausible that the Cortes might decide to take policies similar to this, if they're smart enough, but a problem should definitely arise once João VI dies. With Pedro IV (or, Emperor Pedro I of Brazil, if you prefer) probably exiled and labeled a traitor, the next king of Portugal would almost certainly be his Absolutist and arch-conservative brother Miguel. This is when history becomes rather hard to predict....

What are your thoughts on this scenario?
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