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He only missed out on the final round by a single vote (Clarke - 59, Smith - 54, Portillo - 53), so if one more MP had voted for Portillo rather than IDS, Portillo would have made the final round instead. I imagine that Portillo would have been able to defeat Clarke and become Conservative leader.

How would a Portillo leadership have changed the course of recent British political history?

IMO, the Tories would have done better in 2005 than in OTL by maybe 20-25 seats, perhaps even trimming the Labour majority into single digits. At times during the 2001-2005 parliament, the Conservatives would have had solid and sustained leads in the polls. Portillo was about the only high-ranking Tory at that time who matched Blair's charisma and political skills.
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