Wi Portillo Holds On In 1997?

Hi,

Title says it all really. What if Michael Portillo had realised he was in trouble in the run-up to the 1997 UK General Election? He fights a better local campaign, enabling him to keep his seat in parliament (though all the other results are unchanged, meaning Blair has a majority of 177).

I imagine he stands in the leadership election after Major's resignation? If so, I think Hague and possibly Howard, would stand aside, leaving Clark as Portillo's only aponent. Major would probably favour Clark in these circumstances for obvious reasons, but I'd imagine Portillo is elected Tory leader without much diffeculty.

My question is, how does Portillo do as leader from 1997 to 2001, compared to Hague in OTL? Who's in Portillo's shaddow cabenet?

I can't see any reason why Blair wouldn't still win in 2001, but would Portillo do any better than Hague? Would he stay on past the 2001 defeat and if not, who takes over the conservative leadership?
 
With all due respect, I don't that a Portillo-led Conservative Party would make any real difference to the outcome of the 2001 general election. Assuming of course that he does win the leadership election, and of course that he resigns after the 2001 defeat, then this does place William Hague in a more interesting position.

Would Hague win the 2001 Tory leadership election? He's definitely more charismatic and popular than Iain Duncan-Smith (hell, a three-year-old Belorussian child is more charismatic than IDS), and this could affect whether Michael Howard ever leads the Tories. Of course, the 2005 general election would be largely unaffected as Labour's majority from '01 would be sufficient to carry them over into a third term.
 
1997 Election..

This was covered in a counterfactual written by Duncan Brack, I believe.

Portillo would certainly have been a challenger for the leadership in 1997 and it's not hard to imagine him, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard being the last three and Portillo winning by 93-70.

Would Clarke have served in a Portillo Shadow Cabinet? It's not hard again to suspect he would but, as other have suggested, would this have made any difference in 2001?

Ir's possible to imagine a 2005-style result with Labour's majority cut to 70-80 and Portillo saying that next time would be different.

However, assuming 9/11 happens and the journey to the Iraq involvement begins, would Portillo be as pro-war as IDS was in OTL? He might face a deal of problems if he was and instead of advancing in 2005, the Conservatives lose ground to the anti-war Lib Dems and Blair wins again.

Portillo might then be challenged and might face Hague who would become leader.
 
Hi,

Title says it all really. What if Michael Portillo had realised he was in trouble in the run-up to the 1997 UK General Election? He fights a better local campaign, enabling him to keep his seat in parliament (though all the other results are unchanged, meaning Blair has a majority of 177).

I imagine he stands in the leadership election after Major's resignation? If so, I think Hague and possibly Howard, would stand aside, leaving Clark as Portillo's only aponent. Major would probably favour Clark in these circumstances for obvious reasons, but I'd imagine Portillo is elected Tory leader without much diffeculty.

My question is, how does Portillo do as leader from 1997 to 2001, compared to Hague in OTL? Who's in Portillo's shaddow cabenet?

I can't see any reason why Blair wouldn't still win in 2001, but would Portillo do any better than Hague? Would he stay on past the 2001 defeat and if not, who takes over the conservative leadership?

Tony Blair is pretty much unbeatable in 2001. The economy was doing well and some reforms were made that either had public support or little opposition. The Tories had been in power for 18 years and the Labour Government had done little to alienate the former Tory voters who switched to Labour in '97.

Portillo may win the Tory leadership but because he didn't have his 'Portillo moment' he is still seen as a Right wing Thatcherite clone that no one wanted in the 21st Century.

The 2001 Election result is little different and he's out. Whether Hague takes over or not would depend on the Tory membership rather than MPs. OTL it was the membership who voted for IDS.
 
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