WI Portillo 2001

What if Michael Portillo was elected Tory leader in 2001? Would he be able to modernize the Tories or fail? Would he be able to get a hung parliament in 2005? What would be the effects? What if?
 
What if Michael Portillo was elected Tory leader in 2001? Would he be able to modernize the Tories or fail? Would he be able to get a hung parliament in 2005? What would be the effects? What if?
Depends on the PoD. If it is that the stories about his past homosexual experiences never come out, I think he would have been better equipped to modernize the party. His Euroscepticism would do a lot to win him support from the right, to make him forgive his more socially liberal policies, but there is a question mark whether europhiles on the left of the party would be willing to accept his euroscepticism in return for those concessions. I would say there would likely still be a degree of turbulence within the party, as there was under IDS, although it might be a bit toned down.

As for the election though, I think Portillo is unlikely to get anywhere near power. The Tories had a 247 seat gap between them and Labour, it is very difficult to see that being overturned in one go, especially if they backed Iraq, which they would have still done under Portillo. The best they can probably hope for is to force a hung parliament, with Labour remaining the largest party, but under such circumstances they would still be unlikely to make the maths work for a coalition with the Lib Dems, which would be basically impossible anyway with Charles Kennedy at the helm, who would always opt for Labour. That is unlikely given factors like infighting and backing Iraq, but if Portillo can minimize the effects of those things and he is popular I can just about see it. Under those circumstances, I think even the Tories would be willing to admit he has earned another shot at in 2010, when power would be in there grasp.
 
So, 2005 sees a hung parliament, Tories narrowly win popular vote with 34% but Labour gets more seats, LibDems give supply and confidence to Labour. A week later Blair announces he will resign, Brown elected. Brown calls snap election in January 2006, wins majority, while Kennedy is forced out. Portillo may or may not resign afterwards. From then on...butterflies.
 
In many ways Michael Gove is the heir of Portillo. Eurosceptic, economically Thatcherite and socially liberal. And a love for broadcasting.

Portillo as leader from 2001 would have been less of a disaster than IDS........but that's all. The Tories weren't ready for a moderniser then, just as Labour weren't in 1983.
 
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