WI: Pope remains in Avignon in 1377

What would happen to the French Monarchy? Would it turn more clerical, and, later on, make the possibility of the presence of Calvinists/Lutherans on French soil very unlikely? Would it result in a development of a decent nation-state in Italy before the 1800' ?

For this to happen, let's say that Gregorius XI reveals his intentions of bringing the Papacy back to Rome too early, and, in 1376, Charles V, in a moment of either brightness or in a show of his usual insanity, orders to kill Gregorius. The next Pope, out of fear, decides to not move the Papacy away from Avignon.
 
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You get schism again. The Papacy's credibility outside of France is at an extreme nadir after Innocent; now an attempt to fix the problems from the top down has been squelched by assassination. There will be a Pope in Rome after this, and everyone outside of France will count the Roman pope the legitimate one.

The question becomes whether the Roman Pope can call a crusade against the Avignon schismatics and get people to actually show up for it. It would be hard - Spain and the Empire both have Muslims closer to home, Italy and England probably won't do the job. So I think a French national church - which is what the Avignon papacy becomes by accident - actually has more latitude to adopt Calvinist ideas when they come along.
 
To start with, Charles VI, mad or not would probably not be in the position to order an assassination at the age of 8 while his father still reigned. In 1376, that order would have to come from his father, Charles V, who was a far less volatile personality. If he disapproved of the actions of the Pope, his methods would probably imitate Philip the Fair; a trusted adviser would be sent south to "convince" the Pope of the error in his ways. Through threats, or perhaps force, the Pope would change his tune, and if he died during or after the persuasion, well such things happened in the Middle Ages.

All an assassination, or suspicious death of the Pope would accomplish in this case would be to continue the Avignon Papacy, and possibly move up the date of the Western Schism. If the former, another Frenchman would be elected Pope due to the influence, and perhaps the coercion of the French Crown. The grumbling within the Church outside of France would get louder. All that it would take would be the spark of some sharp division over a Pope, or a theological position to create a schism.

Even if the sole legitimate Pope continues to reign in Avignon for another generation, the French Crown (or the House of Valois) would have difficulty continuing to dominate the Papacy. Once Charles VI does comes of age, his incapacity would probably extend to ecclesiastical affairs. Even if his minsters managed to keep the Church under France's thumb and united, the Treaty of Troyes would probably transfer the effective custody of the Pope to the English.

Long term, the longer the Papacy remains under the sway of a secular ruler, the more its secular power is likely to decline. Even the nominal authority over Rome would probably be lost to the local nobles, or one of the Italian states, making the Pope in Avignon's claim to be the successor of St. Peter difficult to make.
 
King Philip IV of France had been instrumental in securing the election of Clement V, a Frenchman, to the papacy in 1305.
To escape the oppressive atmosphere in Rome, in 1309 Clement chose to move the papal capital to Avignon. At that time Avignon was the property of papal vassals.
Avignon was purchased from papal vassals in 1348.
There was the perception that Avignon belonged to France.
There was the perception that the popes were therefore beholden to the French Crown for their livelihoods.
 
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