WI: Pope Alexander VI lives longer

In 150s the House of Borgia seemed to be at the height of their power. They Borgias controlled the Papacy, the Duchy of Urbino, the Romagna and parts of Tuscany, not to mention marriages with both Ferrara and France/Navarre. Sadly for them,when Pope Alexander VI died, that power vanished completely and near totally. SO my question is qhat if Pope Alexander VI didn't die in 1503? He as already 72, quite old for the era in which he lived, but what if he lives 4 or 5 years longer? Would this give Cesare the time needed to consolidate his Duchy of the Romagna, or to find a good (Borgia or Borgia leaning) candidate for the Papacy? Or would it just give a dieing family a few more years to cling to power?
 
What broke the Borgia's grip on power were very specific conditions which Alexander's death does not exclusively explain. As Machiavelli stated, you didn't need to prolong his papacy, but to make sure that when he dies in 1503, Cesare is able to jump in and consolidate his power. This, however, didn't happen, as he was on his own deathbed at the time (possibly poisoned while eating with his father). Nevertheless, even in this decaying condition, Cesare was able to elect a pro-Borgia pope, Pius III, but he had the misfortune to die within 30 days of reign. Then, the throne of St. Peter went to Julius II, a lifelong enemy of Alexander VI, when Cesare was not yet fully recovered.

If Cesare had not been poisoned with his father, he would have engineered a plan to get the College of Cardinals to vote to one of his supporters after Pius III's death, perhaps even one of his several cardinal kinsmen. Make sure that Della Rovere doesn't get the crown and Cesare will have all the time in the world to consolidate the Romagna and play a big role in Italian politics in the near future. This might even butterfly The Prince as we know it and from there you can draw the consequences.
 
What broke the Borgia's grip on power were very specific conditions which Alexander's death does not exclusively explain. As Machiavelli stated, you didn't need to prolong his papacy, but to make sure that when he dies in 1503, Cesare is able to jump in and consolidate his power. This, however, didn't happen, as he was on his own deathbed at the time (possibly poisoned while eating with his father). Nevertheless, even in this decaying condition, Cesare was able to elect a pro-Borgia pope, Pius III, but he had the misfortune to die within 30 days of reign. Then, the throne of St. Peter went to Julius II, a lifelong enemy of Alexander VI, when Cesare was not yet fully recovered.

If Cesare had not been poisoned with his father, he would have engineered a plan to get the College of Cardinals to vote to one of his supporters after Pius III's death, perhaps even one of his several cardinal kinsmen. Make sure that Della Rovere doesn't get the crown and Cesare will have all the time in the world to consolidate the Romagna and play a big role in Italian politics in the near future. This might even butterfly The Prince as we know it and from there you can draw the consequences.


I didn't know that they were probably poisoned. I always thought it was some sort of sickness like the plague or something like that, but poison makes a lot of sense, especially considering the era.

OK so lets say Cesare avoids being poisoned or recovers faster. If he recovered, he could engineer the election of another pro Borgia Pope, perhaps the French candidate Georges d'Ambois, then he could remain the power behind the throne and consolidate his Duchy. Considering he was supposedly planning the conquest of Tuscany when his father died, this Duchy would be a very powerful player in Italian, and possibly European, politics. The only problem is who would succeed him. He only had one legitimate child, a daughter, Louise Borgia. So would his wife, Charlotte d'albret, join him in Italy or would this marriage be annulled. Now I know Cesare had Syphilis but I don't think this effected his ability to father children. He supposedly caught the disease in 1498 during a visit to Naples, but his daughter Louise was born in 1500, so he was still able to father children. If Charlotte d'albret could still bare one is another story so it could go either way.
 
He might try to marry one of his illegitimate sons to his daughter, should all else fail, or just get a divorce from Charlotte, although this might put his French alliance in jeopardy.
 
A longer lived Pope Alexander might result in the following:

- Rodrigo de Aragón is reunited with Lucrezia and receives even greater promotion thanks to grandpa. I can see him being put forward as a candidate to the Neapolitan throne (a fief of the Papacy, after all) or as a potential heir to Cesare. A marriage with his cousin Bona Sforza might be a means of obtaining Bari, Rossano, and claims to Naples + Milan which grandpa might try to enforce.

- Louise Borgia makes a far grander match than she did OTL. Alexander and Cesare would probably angle for Charles V or Ferdinand, but more likely match might be Frederick of Aragón, the Duke of Calabria; he only fled (or was taken) to Spain in 1504. In this scenario he might make a useful token for Alexander and his ally (whoever he might be at that moment) to advance as King of Naples. More realistically she might end up marrying one of her Borgia cousins or a bastard scion of Aragón, like a Montalto or something.

- Following Charlotte d'Albret's death Cesare would no doubt remarry and quickly. Germaine de Foixe, niece of King Louis XII and dowager of Ferdinand, would make for an ideal match.
 
A longer lived Pope Alexander might result in the following:

- Rodrigo de Aragón is reunited with Lucrezia and receives even greater promotion thanks to grandpa. I can see him being put forward as a candidate to the Neapolitan throne (a fief of the Papacy, after all) or as a potential heir to Cesare. A marriage with his cousin Bona Sforza might be a means of obtaining Bari, Rossano, and claims to Naples + Milan which grandpa might try to enforce.

- Louise Borgia makes a far grander match than she did OTL. Alexander and Cesare would probably angle for Charles V or Ferdinand, but more likely match might be Frederick of Aragón, the Duke of Calabria; he only fled (or was taken) to Spain in 1504. In this scenario he might make a useful token for Alexander and his ally (whoever he might be at that moment) to advance as King of Naples. More realistically she might end up marrying one of her Borgia cousins or a bastard scion of Aragón, like a Montalto or something.

- Following Charlotte d'Albret's death Cesare would no doubt remarry and quickly. Germaine de Foixe, niece of King Louis XII and dowager of Ferdinand, would make for an ideal match.


Interesting Ideas. The main problem I see of the the bat is Rodrigo de Aragón died in 1512 and Naples was all but conquered by Ferdinand of Aragon. As for Louise Borgia, I don't know about Emperor Charles or King Ferdinand (sure she would have been much closer in age to Charles than Mary of England but I think she would be to low ranking) but maybe the Duke of Milan or Duke of Florence. Or perhaps a higher French Match, since she was half French after all. Another interesting match for her might be Francesco Sforza, son of Gian Galeazzo Sforza Duke of Milan and rightful heir to the Duchy. Such a marriage could potenially give Cesare's heirs control Northern and Central Italy

Rodrigo might be considered for the Heir to the Duchy of the Romagne, perhaps marrying Louise Borgia to keep the Duchy in the family. Especially if Cesare doesn't have any sons. He could marry Bona Sforza, if he had more to offer, like his own duchy or an ability to press her claims in Milan. Maybe a Medici or Savoy match would be better.

When Ferdinand II died, Germaine de Foixe was nearly 30. Wouldn't it make more since for Cesare to marry a younger princess, especially if he was concerned about heirs?
 
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