WI Poll: Yugoslavia does not have 1941 coup, stays in Axis..occupied by Soviets or Wallies @ VE Day

Which side will occupy/have the greatest influence/control over postwar Yugoslavia?

  • Soviets

    Votes: 28 68.3%
  • Anglo-Americans

    Votes: 13 31.7%

  • Total voters
    41

raharris1973

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What if Yugoslavia did not have its spring 1941 coup and this allows the country to "keep its head down" that year, remain a formal Axis member and trading partner of Germany that doesn't have to do much of anything in terms of a major contribution or DoWs (like Bulgaria in OTL)?

I think the lack of a Yugoslav campaign, the consequent occupation and partisan movement are simply not going to change the outcome of the war, and Nazi Germany and its allies, indeed all Europe, will end up split between areas conquered or liberated by the Soviets and areas conquered/liberated by the Anglo-Americans.

Which side will occupy/have the greatest influence/control over postwar Yugoslavia?

A) Soviets

B) Anglo-Americans
 
I think if the coup doesn't happen then, then something else will cause public opinion to demand action against the Axis later on once they're clearly losing, and possibly major tensions between the Serbs and Croats over what to do. They might not get out intact at all, but divided like Germany itself.
 

Deleted member 1487

It could well alter a huge deal, as the Axis used a lot of troops to hold it down, including some quality troops. It might help Barbarossa a bit due to invasion forces not then being recently worn due to the invasion of Yugoslavia, plus save a few dozen aircraft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Yugoslavia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_in_Yugoslavia
There were apparently 300k German troops there in 1944. 25,000 killed and missing.
In 1941 4x 2nd line German divisions would have helped in Russia for critical occupation duties.
Plus this anti-partisan offensive happened in 1941:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Uzice

Then in 1942:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Southeast_Croatia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Trio

In 1943:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_White
  • 90,000 men
  • 12,000–15,000 Chetniks
  • 12 air squadrons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_Black
127,000 men
300+ aircraft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Kugelblitz
Operation Kugelblitz, the first of the offensives, was executed by the 5th SS Mountain Corps

In 1944:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Rösselsprung_(1944)

By 1945:
Set against the Yugoslav Partisans was German General Alexander Löhr of Army Group E (Heeresgruppe E). This Army Group had seven army corps (the XV Mountain, XV Cossack, XXI Mountain, XXXIV, LXIX, and LXXXXVII). These corps included seventeen weakened divisions (1st Cossack, 2nd Cossack, 7th SS, 11th Luftwaffe Field Division, 22nd, 41st, 104th, 117th, 138th, 181st, 188th, 237th, 297th, 369th Croat, 373rd Croat, 392nd Croat and the 14th SS Ukrainian Division). In addition to the seven corps, the Axis had remnant naval and Luftwaffe forces, under constant attack by the British Royal Navy, Royal Air Force and United States Air Force.[62]

The occupation being avoided would save the Germans a ton of hassle and the resulting manpower available for the East could well change the course of the war which then alters which camp Yugoslavia falls into post-war.
 
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Probably the Soviets. Geographically their gonna be right on their door step by the end of '44 while the WAllies are still a good bit of the way down in Italy. Although if the Yugoslav's acted quickly they could possibly open their ports to WAllied forces during August-September... Greece would be the OTL precedent here.
 
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Yugoslavia will almost certainly switch sides - join the Allies in a moment of German/Axis weakness (assuming the war goes the same way, which is not certain) and do its best to link up with and bring in the Western Allies. So Yugoslavia probably ends up with the Anglo-Americans. Although the Soviets could get the country, or a part of the country, if Hitler sees it coming and pulls a Margarethe on them.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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if Hitler sees it coming and pulls a Margarethe on them.

Could Hitler really be surprised? Wouldn't a Margarethe be inevitable? Could the Yugoslavs really stage their surrender & side-switching at just the right time so that the Germans cannot crushingly retaliate? Succeeding in defecting to the WAllies is a tough tightrope to walk I think.
 
Could Hitler really be surprised? Wouldn't a Margarethe be inevitable? Could the Yugoslavs really stage their surrender & side-switching at just the right time so that the Germans cannot crushingly retaliate? Succeeding in defecting to the WAllies is a tough tightrope to walk I think.

It is tough, but not impossible. Especially if Yugoslavia doesn't defect alone and Germany has to think about 2 or more Margareths at the same time.
 
Option 1 - WAllies in Italy and Romania collapses
In this case, Yugoslavia will simply declare war on Germany and invite Anglo-Americans troops to land in its ports many, many weeks before the Soviets even have a chance to reach their borders. Churchill would not hesitate, though there is a minor chance FDR blocks the whole thing and lets the Soviets swoop in

Option 2 - no Wallies in Italy and Romania collapses
For some reason, there has been no Italian campaign. Maybe Op. Husky failed or was never launched, and Mussolini is still running the country (meaning the Strait of Otranto is off-limits to Allied shipping). In this case, avoiding the imposition of a Moscow-friendly government will be very very hard.

Option 3 - WAllies in Italy and Romania doesn't collapse
Second Iasi-Chisinau Offensive fails, Stalin decides to finish off whatever was left of Romanian refining capacity with tactical bombers and then redeploys as many formations as possible for the critical push in Poland. Yugoslavia almost certainly goes Anglo-American with no soviets around

Option 4 - No WAllies in Italy and Romania doesn't collapse
The war ends with Hitler dead, but with Mussolini and Antonescu still in power at the time of the fall of Berlin, with everything south and east of the Carpathians still controlled by the Axis. In this situation, it's highly likely IMO that nothing actually happens to Yugoslavia
 
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Wait! WAIT! Wrong, there is still a pulse!

Option 1b - WAllies in Italy and Romania collapses

Yugoslavs act as the Turks & Spainards & convince the Allies they are not worth invading. As Germany loses its offensive capability in 1944 Yugoslavia increasingly cooperates with the Allies in cutting off material to Germany, allowing overflights, looking the other wayas agents & OSS or SOE operations pass through. When the collapse comes in 1945 they cooperate further by assisting in rounding up German forces in Northern Italy ect... much like the Swedes did in Denmark.
 

Deleted member 1487

The question is how would the course of the war change to that point with the forces the Axis used in Yugoslavia from 1941-45 used elsewhere, like the USSR?
 
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