WI/Poll: China Invades Taiwan

WI: China Invades Taiwan

  • USA Responds Militarily: China Wins | Taiwan is Annexed

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With all the military blustering going on in the east Chinese sea these days, many are predicting a more militarily jingoist China is coming into form before our eyes.
Given the history of the PRC and ROC, many also predict that the US and China will inevitably come to blows of the status of Taiwan within the next few decades, given that China officially believes the island nation is PRC territory de jure, while the US backs the ROC's right to self determination.

So, my question is this:

If China were launch an invasion of Taiwan circa 2015, with the goal of reannexing the island into the PRC, what would happen next?
 
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Well, I don't think it would happen now. President Ma has done a lot in terms of integrating with the Mainland. A DPP government might start blustering again about independence.

The thing about an invasion of Taiwan, is that it's no good to the PRC to have the island destroyed. They'd want as much wealth and infrastructure preserved. So I imagine Beijing would be in some crisis that has hardliners in power needing to stoke Nationalism.

If that's the case, then war is probably inevitable. The US can't afford such a challenge to go.
 
The problem for the US going to war with China is that it literally has to willingly commit economic suicide to conduct the operation. Not only can China issue an embargo that will collectively create shortages in consumer goods, but it could dump the Dollar as a reserve currency, tanking the global value of the currency in the process.

How do you conduct an effective war effort with an angry populace and soring inflation? 1918 Germany might have the answer.
 
The problem for the US going to war with China is that it literally has to willingly commit economic suicide to conduct the operation. Not only can China issue an embargo that will collectively create shortages in consumer goods, but it could dump the Dollar as a reserve currency, tanking the global value of the currency in the process.

How do you conduct an effective war effort with an angry populace and soring inflation? 1918 Germany might have the answer.

It's not economic suicide, it's economic mutually assured destruction. China would wreck its own economy at the same time, because any embargo would naturally mean that the US would stop buying Chinese goods and all American investment into China would immediately cease.
 
Given its many formal and informal pledges over the years, I think the US would have to respond to an unprovoked military invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. And by "unprovoked" I would not consider an ill-considered Taiwanese "declaration of independence" sufficient provocation. Taiwan has been in effect an independent nation since 1949.

Unless the Chinese struck so fast and unexpectedly that the US was simply unable to respond, the Americans would respond in limited fashion to secure the sea lanes to Taiwan and reinforce ROC forces. This might include US forces on the ground. It would certainly engage any Chinese naval and air forces involved in the invasion, but probably not expand the war to attacks elsewhere against China. Also, the longer the war went on, the more likely that China will face increasing political and economic pressure to abandon the effort.

No chance for a deliberate nuclear exchange by either power.

All of this presumes, of course, that China is the crypto-state capitalist authoritarian China of today and that Taiwan is a comparatively more democratic place that has not gone rogue.
 
while the US backs the ROC's right to self determination.
This is not true. The US is purposefully ambiguous on the issue of Taiwan, to deter both sides from doing anything which may compel it to do something concrete.

If China were launch an invasion of Taiwan circa 2015, with the goal of reannexing the island into the PRC, what would happen next?
It doesn't need to. As long as all the large corporations of Taiwan are hugely invested on the mainland, the PRC can press them to pressure the politicians not to do anything reckless.
 
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