WI:Polish-Soviet War, Soviets dont retreat from Ukraine

If there's a larger Poland including much of Belarus and an independent Ukraine, we'd definitely get a different Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact.

Given the ineptitude the Red Army showed in dealing with tiny but well-armed Finland, might they have problems with rump-Ukraine too?

Probably not - frigid, hilly, forested terrain vs.... Nebraska. ;) Defense isn't favored in Nebraska. Plus, I don't expect the Ukraine to be well armed. The Poles, maybe (but not very likely) - they have the French to back them up. The Ukraine has nothing.
 
Probably not - frigid, hilly, forested terrain vs.... Nebraska. ;) Defense isn't favored in Nebraska. Plus, I don't expect the Ukraine to be well armed. The Poles, maybe (but not very likely) - they have the French to back them up. The Ukraine has nothing.

The Ukraine would probably have a fair bit of anti-Soviet paranoia, unless the Soviet occupation prior to the Polish attack was benign in this TL, so they might not give in like the Baltics did.

A Ukraine-Soviet war might be faster, however, unless the Soviets were supremely incompetent.
 
Faeelin

Been busy for a few days so missed this. Sorry about the late response.


Ah, but which minorities helped? The Baltic peoples, who would help regardless of how nice the USSR was (because the USSR had occupied their countries); Some Ukrainians, and mostly in the west; and some people in the Caucasus; not all of them at that.

A lot more, as well as large numbers of Great Russians were willing to help and only deterred ultimately by the attrocities and racism of the Nazis. Stalin and the communists had made themselves massively detested and hated by many Russians, a major reason for the rapid advances of the Germans.

Justified? Well, I don't know about that; I've argued elsewhere that there were other ways to build a similar economy, but I'm not so sure.

But effective? Sure. And was the goal of Stalinist policies to build up an industrial base capable of defending the USSR? Yep, according to the big man himself.

I would be very cautious about taking anything a paranoid dictator said about himself and his aims.;) I also agree that a non-communist Russia [talking about including the Ukraine here so a bit off the topic of the thread] would probably have somewhat less heavy industry. However it would probably have a significantly larger GNP and population which would increase its military potential. Most of all far more of the population would identify with the state and be willing to defend it against an attacker. No quality or quantity of weapons are effective if the people aren't willing to use them.

Steve
 
ITTL I planned for the defeated Soviet armies to retreat through Kiev burning and looting to prevent Polish and Ukranian forces from gaining anything from the victory. This would lead to many of the Ukranian people to join with the Polish-Ukranian armies and oust the Soviets as they would be seen as the liberators of Ukraine.

I think that Poland would gain a fair amount of land, likely to the gap in between the Dneiper and Dvina Rivers say just north of Orsha then to wher the Dvina dips south a little bit, as well as a large Ukraine going to Poltava and down the Dneiper from there. Also perhaps Estonia and Latvia, Latvia being a historical participant in the war IIRC and Estonia due to shared interests, would join. Perhaps maybe even other Soviet neighbors would join like Finland.
 
Originally posted by billy bob
ITTL I planned for the defeated Soviet armies to retreat through Kiev burning and looting to prevent Polish and Ukranian forces from gaining anything from the victory. This would lead to many of the Ukranian people to join with the Polish-Ukranian armies and oust the Soviets as they would be seen as the liberators of Ukraine.
I think that Poland would gain a fair amount of land, likely to the gap in between the Dneiper and Dvina Rivers say just north of Orsha then to wher the Dvina dips south a little bit, as well as a large Ukraine going to Poltava and down the Dneiper from there. Also perhaps Estonia and Latvia, Latvia being a historical participant in the war IIRC and Estonia due to shared interests, would join. Perhaps maybe even other Soviet neighbors would join like Finland.
In other words, you think about Intermare. Oh, and I doubt Poland would take all those lands you mentioned. I think Piłsduski prefered an independent Belarus, allied with Poland against SU. Also taking to much of Ukrainian lands would spoil Polish-Ukrainian realtions. Since we assume Piłsudski is totally victorious, it is his vision of Eastern Europe to become reality.
 
Originally posted by billy bob

In other words, you think about Intermare. Oh, and I doubt Poland would take all those lands you mentioned. I think Piłsduski prefered an independent Belarus, allied with Poland against SU. Also taking to much of Ukrainian lands would spoil Polish-Ukrainian realtions. Since we assume Piłsudski is totally victorious, it is his vision of Eastern Europe to become reality.

So amend that post to a new Belarus state along with a larger Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania would likely shrink due to natural Polish tensions. And you already have friendly relations Romania and Hungary along with previously mentioned Latvia and the new countries of Ukraine and whatever Belarus would be called.

I dont think though that a massive one state will spring up, rather a little larger Poland, biting bits of Lithuania and USSR off, with Belarus and Ukraine as dependants and allies in the Baltic states, other than Lithuania, and Hungary, Finland, and Romania.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Who would rule Ukraine anyway, if I remember the situation in Ukraine during the Russian Civil War a lot of movements fought for power there.
 
So remember those two books I orderd from bn.com on the war? they came and I'm just up to the salient points in the war. I'll have a little more to say in the next day or so, after I've had a chance to read through it all and orgnaize my thoughts.

The one book is the Norman Davies book. The other is from a polish author and just came out this year (that was the $45- one!) Its also the one I'm reading first.

Best way I can describe the feeling about the war at this point? It's like eating soup with a fork. Not much that you want is getting done and there's mess everywhere.
 
Without Ukraine in the Union, there will be no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. In fact, the SU will struggle more than OTL to survive the troubles of famine and crash-industrialization without the rich foodstuffs and peoples of Ukraine. And any attempt to reclaim it violently will immediately lead to western support for Ukraine, defending it against the evil bolshevicks.

Nationalist tensions are still likely to rise in Germany, but whether those will lead to Nazism are debatable. It is certainly posible that a extremist movement involving many of OTL's Nazi's could rise, but an equal possibility without the "Paranoia" of the massive Soviet state is a communist Germany, which would be a natural ally to the Russian state.

Some sort of WWII where a Commie Germany attempts to reverse the limitations and territorial adjustments of Versailes, allied with a Soviet Union trying to reclaim Russian territories in Eastern Europe would be most interesting. This could paradoxically lead to a much less Russo-friendly or Socialist-friendly France. Fascism will also likely be much more attractive to the west with a large Communist state on France's border.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I can't see communists taking power in Germany without a coup, and I can't see the communist regime survive, since the West would jump up the roofs if the Communists coup Germany (could be accepted if France and UK somehow saw the Communist regime as less dangerous than the one it replaced).

Nazism would proabably exist as a strong force in Germany. Germany would probably have had their communist uprisings after WW1 as IRL and created a hate towards the left. Mussolini in Italy showed the example of a Fascist regime, and the stab in the back theory about hte Jews would be popular in Germany. Hitler and the Nazis would be there, but would they take power? that could be butterflied away.

However a Polish- Ukrainan alliance in the East would strengthen both of these nations. I'd say it would give both Stalin and Hitler some headaches.
 
Ok, lets say the war does end in a victory for the Polish coalition.

What do you all think would be the territorial boundaries? I think that Ukraine's borders would be what the Soviets had of modern Ukraine for the western border with possibly some Polish gains, with the eastern border being Poltava and then southeast to the furthest part of the Dneiper then following the Dneiper south.

I think that Latvia and Estonia would throw in with Poland and gain some land, with the possible inclusion of Finland.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Ok, lets say the war does end in a victory for the Polish coalition.

What do you all think would be the territorial boundaries? I think that Ukraine's borders would be what the Soviets had of modern Ukraine for the western border with possibly some Polish gains, with the eastern border being Poltava and then southeast to the furthest part of the Dneiper then following the Dneiper south.

I think that Latvia and Estonia would throw in with Poland and gain some land, with the possible inclusion of Finland.

Nah, Finland would probably be neutral. Latvia and Estonia could be bullied into supporting Poland, while Lithuania could become a very pro- German nation (Vilnius area occupied by Poland).
 
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