WI Poland never partitioned?

[Tizoc]

About Prussia - it sometimes still makes me wonder how it made into being part of Kingdom of Prussia - there were so many times that Poland was on the brink of swallowing it. Just to name a few: In 1577 Brandenburgian branch of Hohenzollerns paid Stephen Batory to be allowed to succeed the last Prussian Hohenzollern. Batory needed money at the moment, so he accepted. The thing is that Polish Baltic cities (or were they Prussian cities) proposed to pay even more money to get Prussia become a part of Poland... Or during the reign of Vladislav IV Vasa (around 1635-1640, I believe) it was really considered to just annex Prussia - Brandenburg at that time was too weak to do something else than protest if Prussia were to be taken from them... Or during the first years of John III Sobieski reign it was planned that after making cease-fire with Ottomans Polish army would be immediatly deployed against Brandenburg thus making Poland-Lithuania a part of Frenco-Swedish coalition. The idea died after Fehrbellin (1675)...

Do you mind if I steal some of your ideas? I'm thinking of doing a timeline in the recent future which could use something like that (although not as the actual POD which would be a bit earlier).

I don't mind. Go ahead.

BTW, I have an idea about who is going to succeed Stanislav August Poniatowski in my proposed scenario. First, Stanislav August rules longer, say till 1800. Then he is succeeded by Frederic of Saxony. But because he is against switching sides, he is persuaded to step from the throne in, say, 1812. After him comes Joseph Poniatowski (Stanislav's nephew), who to look things somewhat legal, is married to one of the daughters of Frederic Vettin. (I think it is quite likely, because in OTL marriage like that had been seriously considered...).

 

[Homer]

I think Prussia - or Brandenbourg-Prussia - will be the key here. They proposed the first partition. And they took part in every partition that followed. After Poland ended as an independent nation, we always saw Prussian-Russian cooperation in quelling any rebellion in Poland. Prior to WWI, Austrian Galicia was a bit of a safe haven for Polish nationalists.

Eliminating Prussia could bring Prussia to Poland. First Plus.
Second, Austria would dominate Germany. No dualism here. Thus Austria would have more then enough work in Germany, fighting the French and German princes and of course the Ottomans. Austria once even had to give up Belgrad due to Prussian intervention. Thus no Prussia would lead to a more successfull Austrian expansion on the Balkans and an even increased interest of Austria in areas out of Poland. Now that greater expansion would of course increase Austrian-Russian tensions. Now Poland is in the middle of these things, and there's no Prussia proposing to take some polish lands instead of going to war about Ottoman lands.
If Poland somehow gets stronger and more centralized by then, it would be an important ally or a successfull negotiator in the Austrian-Russian tensions (and probably wars) to come.
Maybe a Austrian-Polish-HRE alliance would fight the Russians and get the Poles some lost territories back?

 

[Hapsburg]

Problems:

Poland's weak internal structure (aristocratic democracy in a age of increasing absolutism).

Poland's restive south (Cossack Ukraine).

The increasing strength of her neighbours (Prussia, Austria, Russia).

Fix those and Poland will survive.

Perhaps just have the 1772 partition take place, and then maybe a Habsburg prince get elected to the Polish Kingship. Austria convinces the king to make a more absolutist polish constitution, and Poland remains as a very large puppet of Austria.

 

[King Gorilla]

Perhaps just have the 1772 partition take place, and then maybe a Habsburg prince get elected to the Polish Kingship. Austria convinces the king to make a more absolutist polish constitution, and Poland remains as a very large puppet of Austria.

That sounds like a very good suggestion, its neighbors still get bits of its territory but it stays alive mainly to serve as a very useful bufferstate between germany and russia. Inorder to stay independent you don't necessarily need to be an uber power.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

That would be interesting, having the polish set themselves to the east and become the dominant slavic power. No Russian empire, but a polish one instead. Or no Drang nach Osten, so the germans don't become focused on the east.

 

[The Man]

Give Ukraine to the Russians?

Let Austria turn to Western Europe as opposed to Eastern and Central. Ensure Prussia doesn't become part of Brandenburg. Take out Frederick II while you're at it. Somehow ensure that Russia doesn't unite, so split it among Muscovy, Novgorod, Kiev, etc.

Poland supports the Norvogrod Republic.

Poland makes democratic reforms.

Republican Poland assassinates all empiral european leaders and takes over europe and all her colonies. All the litle russians become 'vassal states' to the Polish Republic.

My first attempt at Pollackiwank.

 

[Magnificate]

Poland supports the Norvogrod Republic.

Fair enough that is my POD as well.

Poland makes democratic reforms.

Poland was, arguably, the most democratic of significant nations of Europe during this period. To say the truth it was "warped" democracy itself,Golden Freedom , that led to it's crumbling.

Republican Poland assassinates all empiral european leaders and takes over europe and all her colonies. All the litle russians become 'vassal states' to the Polish Republic.

That is just ABS. Assassinating leader of a nation does not automaticaly decapitate the nation itself. Moreover AFAIK political assassinations were extremelly rare in Poland.

He was kidding on the last one, in light of all the discussion about 'nationwank' lately.

OK, no problem then.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

That is just ABS. Assassinating leader of a nation does not automaticaly decapitate the nation itself. Moreover AFAIK political assassinations were extremelly rare in Poland.

He was kidding on the last one, in light of all the discussion about 'nationwank' lately.

 

[abas]

I would say you want the 1400s to about the 1600s. Anything that takes strong Russia out of the equation, like preventing Ivan IV from coming to power (Also known as Ivan the Terrible first Tsar of Russia) whom was an expansionalist. The same can be said about dealing with Ivan the Great, the Fourth Ivan's Grandfather whom expanded the Moscows power, and territory fourfold.(Ivan the Great is also credited with destorying the power of the Novgorod Republic...so if we take out this bloodline and replace it with a series of less exapnsionalist ones we can get a divided Russian East which would give Poland more dominance of the area.

Even farther back and you could take care of the Tuetonic Knights, or the Catholicization of Poland in favour of a Orthodox dominated state. Either way your only dealing with a fraction of the problems that could arise. ITs geographical postion makes it easy to invade, and invade from...meaning either that you have an expanding Polish state or shrinking one, as it isn't in a good postion to remain in a status quo.

My own POD takes place with Maximillian II, HRE, gaining Poland over Stephan IV Bathory. However the amount of mess this includes makes me wish to dive into the intense amount of poltics and warfare needed to reform this era. Getting this outcome would be very difficult.

Anything that takes strong Russia out of the equation, also takes out Union of Poland and Lithuania.

I'd think a better resolution of the crisis in the 1630s and 1640s, which led to the Cossacks going to Russia, would be one solution. Turn it into a triple Commonwealth, with Ruthenia on equal footing with the Poles and Lithuanians.

Prussia is definitely the weak link in the partitions, though. Smack it down anywhere between 1500 and 1700 and that's one problem licked. They *were* a Polish vassal for how long?

Initial goal of Cossacks was to get recognized equal rights with shlachta, or/and one of parts of Commonwealth. In this case Prussia had no chance to become kingdom.

Perhaps just have the 1772 partition take place, and then maybe a Habsburg prince get elected to the Polish Kingship. Austria convinces the king to make a more absolutist polish constitution, and Poland remains as a very large puppet of Austria.

You must take account of Russia. Russia viewed Republik like its dominion.

 

[seraphim74]

I have some loose ideas...
Prussia looses Seven Years War (1756-1763) against Russia, Austria and France. Let's say empress Elizabeth doesn't die on 5th of January 1762. In OTL her death made Russia withdraw from the war and saved Frederick II's skin (Prussians were loosing, and their king told his advisors he would comitt suicide if there were no good news till February 1762). If Elizabeth had died only 3 or 4 months later, Prussia would probably have been defeated and out of political game.
Later, new Russian empress, Catherine the Great, had a problem. It was cold Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth - big but weak land full of ill-educated noblemen obsessed with their privileges, land of anarchy and selfish tycoons (magnats). In the second half of 18th century Russia pretty much controlled the Commonwealth. New Polish king, Stanisław August Poniatowski (elected in 1764), was Catherine's former lover. However, he wasn't totally Russian puppet. He supported many groups preparing necessary reforms in the Commonwealth, founded the Knight School (military academy) and National Education Comittee. But all those changes required time.
Empress Catherine had a choice: she could annex part of the Commonwealth (in OTL first partition in 1772) or try to keep it all together as Russian Puppet - well, maybe taking some of the its eastern lands. Considering that spiritus movens of the first partition was Prussia, it is quite possible that Catherine would choose the second option - if she managed to convince Austrians to keep their hand out of HER prey.
Suppose she did it. What next?
Commonwealth looses some part of its territory, but still is big country, slowly but steadily changing for better. If Catherine was too busy with some internal problems (another serfs' rebellion? her husband avoids death, escapes from his prison and calls Russian people to fight German usurper? and if not him personally, may be some convincing pretender?), witout Russian interference Polish patriots might succeed.
Without the first partition the Commonwealth could return to its former glory. It would still have had Gdańsk (Danzig), wealthy Pomerania and Great Poland. King Stanisław August could neutralize Austrian threat by making an alliance with France (and hey, why not send a small force together with French to fight in America? ), and finally we have the 3rd of May Constitution. In could have even happened earlier than in 1791.
It wasn't perfect, but it was enormous step forward, eradicating the biggest flaws of the Commonwealth's political system: no more liberum veto (earlier all Sejm's decision had to be unanimous), no more noblemen's political monopoly (though they would still be dominant part of the Commonwealth society), strong central goverment, no more elective kings (after Poniatowski's death Polish throne would go to Saxon dynasty of Wettin). If Russia were still busy with internal problems or may be another war with Turkey (please, let the Turks behead Suvorov), and Austria more interested in gaining control over German states and principalities, the Commonwealth could be back among big boys again.
And what happens when Napoleon goes east? Not much. The Commonwealth would gladly make an aliance with him - no conflict of interests, common enemies: Austria & Russia. To help Austrians, Russians would have had to pass through the Commonwealth, and assuming king Poniatowski had time to rebuild the army, it wouldn't be so easy.
So: Napoleons kicks Austrian butts, and comes to help the Commonwealth against Russians. When dust settles, Napoleon controls all western Europe (except Britain of course). Austria is eliminated, all Germany under French control, so is Italy. Eastern flank of Napoleon's empire is protected by his ally, the Commonwealth. British have no allies in Europe but Russians, and that would not be enough. Napoleon doesn't invade Russia - why should he?
His only problem would be Spain (Bourbon dynasty!) but he could leave it alone for some time. Joseph can get some throne in Germany or in some country made of land taken from Austria. BTW, the Commonwealth can gain some lands too.
And so, we have new, enlightened Commonwealth, sooner or later abolishing serfdom (rather sooner, because of French influence) and boldly going into the future...when no man has gone before... oh, well, you know what I mean.
Hey, I'v got an idea for European Union in 19th century! Let's marry Napoleon's son with some Polish-Saxon princess!

 

[follow_by_white_rabbit]

Hmmm, at least thread for me!!
Firstly, we have to conceder what had happened that this wonderful, democratic and strong state, the Commonwealth (for being more precisely and for short I will be using this name for Polish – Lithuanian state) had collapsed and had been partitioned three times in 10 years. There are many theories of many historical points of view. Most of them indicate two major factors witch occurred at once. Firstly internal weakness of Commonwealth’s political system, something witch was main achievement of Commonwealth became in 18th century its weakness. The second factor was incurably strong (mostly military) of Commonwealth’s neighbors, Russia, Prussia and Austria.
If those two factors had occurred separately, the future wouldn’t have been so devastating for the Commonwealth. Having no ideas how to make ‘partitioners’ less powerful I would assume that something had to change in Commonwealth’s timeline.
My idea is to make Commonwealth existing till Napoleonic wars. General Kościuszko could came back form USA earlier and take an active part in creating Commonwealth’s Constitution, making it more liberal for Peasants and Townspeople and create head of government in person of chancllor or prime minister rather than in person of King; Commonwealth could make an alliance with some of its neighbors most reasonable would be alliance with Austria or Sweden, existing alliances with almost isolated Saxony or far Ottoman Empire was worthless or simply King Stanisław Poniatowski could use his close relationships with Empress Katherine better.
Even if there would be something like 1st partition *here*, there is still a continuation of state existence or even one ‘partitioner’ less (if Austria wouldn’t take part in). Then Napoleon came to power and Commonwealth becoming it’s allay but even this wouldn’t help him in Russia, but help a lot for Commonwealth. Prince Józef Poniatowski wouldn’t die and marry Princess Maria Augusta Nepomucena Wttin (witch, according to 3rd May Constitution Commonwealth’s was to take throne of Commonwealth after her father Frederic Wettin) and create a new dinasty. In Congress of Vienna the Victory Powers have hard problem with Commonwealth because they have to use the ‘restauration’ equally for all Europeans countries. Prussia would probably give up from Poznań province climes, but not from Gdansk and East Prussia, Russia would also like to hold their territorial achievements after Napoleonic winter campaign. The Commonwealth have similar borders to those after Riga Treaty *here* in 1919 but without so called ‘corridor’ and with all of Lithuania in.
As a democratic island under watchful eye of its absolutist’s neighbors, the Commonwealth builds modern capitalism, democratic society instead of class one, recognized Poland, Lithuania and Galicia as federal states of Commonwealths with equal rights and like France planning revenge.
Outside, Germany are unitized but Prussia position is much weaker, Austria and Russia are trying to keep old order in Europe, during the Spring of People supported by Commonwealth Hungary takes independence and do not united with Austria, although much smaller than in Austria – Hungarian empire *here*.
In WWI becoming part of Entente and as a vicarious power in war (assuming that Commonwealth’s activity in war didn’t changed its result) regret from defended Germany Pomerania, Gdansk, East Prussia and all of Upper Silesia and maybe some of its colonies.
I have no idea how all those change the next war and second haft of XX century. But existing a Commonwealth as a self-rule state in XIX century would probably change a lot, mostly in Western Europeans relations to this particular part of continent and could prevent of much evil witch this land have tasted during the last 200 years.

 

[Tizoc]

As I said before, it would make more sense for Commonwealth to turn sides during Napoleonian Wars so Poland-Lithuania would end in victors' camp. But I think Commonwealth wouldn't like to have Napoleon completly destroyed, so in alliance with Austria they could pull of sth like:
France - northern border on Rhein, Netherlands independent (Not sure about who would be the ruler - Louis Bonaparte or William of Oranje); Nivea and Sabaudia stays in France, question about Piemont, though. Toscania and Latium independent again.
Austria - regains lost land as far as to Piava river, making Venice Austrian (as well as Illyrian Provs and Tirol).
Germany - no Confederation of the Rhine, but no German Confederation either; Germany serves as sort of bufor between France and Prussia and Austria.

ANd, of course, Napoleon stays an Emperor...

 

[Max Sinister]

"If Catherine was too busy with some internal problems (another serfs' rebellion? her husband avoids death, escapes from his prison and calls Russian people to fight German usurper?"

The problem: Her husband Peter III was German himself, and pretty distanced from the Russians. I once read when the two married, all he said during the ceremony was "Da" because he didn't know Russian, while Catherine already spoke it fluently.

 

[Homer]

As I said before, it would make more sense for Commonwealth to turn sides during Napoleonian Wars so Poland-Lithuania would end in victors' camp. But I think Commonwealth wouldn't like to have Napoleon completly destroyed, so in alliance with Austria they could pull of sth like:
France - northern border on Rhein, Netherlands independent (Not sure about who would be the ruler - Louis Bonaparte or William of Oranje); Nivea and Sabaudia stays in France, question about Piemont, though. Toscania and Latium independent again.
Austria - regains lost land as far as to Piava river, making Venice Austrian (as well as Illyrian Provs and Tirol).
Germany - no Confederation of the Rhine, but no German Confederation either; Germany serves as sort of bufor between France and Prussia and Austria.

ANd, of course, Napoleon stays an Emperor...

If Prussia is out, this would probably be the end of the war. Austrians were very hesitating to go to war with Napoleon in 1813 when Prussia has already changed sides. Again, the Prussian proposed the Russians to fight on until they reach Paris. Again, Prussia proposed the new frontiers with Poland going to Russia and Saxony going to Prussia.

Get Prussia out, and you'd have the Austrians and the Russians fight for Polish friendship against each other. Then let some wars start and let Poland be on the side of the winner every time they took part in those wars - pre-Napoleonic, post-napoleonic or napoleonic - to gain or regain some teritories. That's it: Surviving Commonwealth.

Three greater powers on your frontier: bad.
Two greater powers on your frontier fighting each other: extremely good, you decide who wins!

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Max Sinister

The problem: Her husband Peter III was German himself, and pretty distanced from the Russians. I once read when the two married, all he said during the ceremony was "Da" because he didn't know Russian, while Catherine already spoke it fluently.

Oops, my mistake. Live and learn.
Of course it doesn't change much. I simply needed something (anything) to keep Russia from interfering with Commonwealth reforms. Frankly, I don't care what it could be. And Peter III could got some powerful Russian ally and still fight against usurper (without "German"). With Prussia out of business, Austria busy with gaining control over all Germany and Russia with tiny internal problem, like civil war, the Commonwealth could be reformed into modern, much better organized state. In OTL they were so close to achieve it.

 

[follow_by_white_rabbit]

Originally posted by Max Sinister

[...] In OTL they were so close to achieve it.

Deem right !! You don't even supposed how close !!

If could had turnd back time even once, I would have gone back to thoes times and make the Commonwealth survived...

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Russia pretty much controlled the Commonwealth. New Polish king, Stanisław August Poniatowski (elected in 1764), was Catherine's former lover. However, he wasn't totally Russian puppet. He supported many groups preparing necessary reforms in the Commonwealth, founded the Knight School (military academy) and National Education Comittee. But all those changes required time.
Empress Catherine had a choice: she could annex part of the Commonwealth (in OTL first partition in 1772) or try to keep it all together as Russian Puppet - well, maybe taking some of the its eastern lands. Considering that spiritus movens of the first partition was Prussia, it is quite possible that Catherine would choose the second option - if she managed to convince Austrians to keep their hand out of HER prey.

Well this is not hard.....Maria Theresa only took her portion of the 1st partition because the other two would have gone ahead without her anyway....
She is said to have been saddened by the partitions but realpolitic of the day dictated that the Aus.Emp. had to take its share or fall behind the other two....and she could not have opposed both Russia or Prussia to support the Commonwealth.

with Prussia out of the equation the Austrians are in a better position to oppose Catherine there...so one can easily see the two great female monarchs of their day coming to an agreement to leave things at the status quo and settle for competing politically within the framework of the Commonwealth.

Russia has an edge here but its not total. As stated Poniatowski may have been Catherine's former lover but he was a Polish patriot and would prefer to keep the Commonwealth intact and independent of either. To do that the Commonwealth will have to shift its allegiance carefully between the two eastern powers.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Russia pretty much controlled the Commonwealth. New Polish king, Stanisław August Poniatowski (elected in 1764), was Catherine's former lover. However, he wasn't totally Russian puppet. He supported many groups preparing necessary reforms in the Commonwealth, founded the Knight School (military academy) and National Education Comittee. But all those changes required time.
Empress Catherine had a choice: she could annex part of the Commonwealth (in OTL first partition in 1772) or try to keep it all together as Russian Puppet - well, maybe taking some of the its eastern lands. Considering that spiritus movens of the first partition was Prussia, it is quite possible that Catherine would choose the second option - if she managed to convince Austrians to keep their hand out of HER prey.

Well this is not hard.....Maria Theresa only took her portion of the 1st partition because the other two would have gone ahead without her anyway....
She is said to have been saddened by the partitions but realpolitic of the day dictated that the Aus.Emp. had to take its share or fall behind the other two....and she could not have opposed both Russia or Prussia to support the Commonwealth.

with Prussia out of the equation the Austrians are in a better position to oppose Catherine there...so one can easily see the two great female monarchs of their day coming to an agreement to leave things at the status quo and settle for competing politically within the framework of the Commonwealth.

Russia has an edge here but its not total. As stated Poniatowski may have been Catherine's former lover but he was a Polish patriot and would prefer to keep the Commonwealth intact and independent of either. To do that the Commonwealth will have to shift its allegiance carefully between the two eastern powers.

by the way..this probably changes the entire dynamic of the Napoleonic wars....
I would think they would finish in about 1807/8 TTL with France on the Rhine a number of Italian clients in North Italy and the Netherlands....Louis as King.....the Savoys reduced to Sardinia itself....and reliant on the UK and Spain.

Germany reformed in some kind of Confederation of the Rhine but a looser union. Russia plays less of an influence here...and perhaps Sweden retains Finland with no Continental system....That has got to go or there will never be peace with Britain...and the Nordic powers and Russia would almost certainly seek to get around it...H*ll even Louis's Holland cheated.

Btw the Commonwealth probably should ally with Austria et al in the third and in this case final coalition. this can stabalize things....but the republican sentiments of the French revolution will survive...no Bourbon restoration ( exile in London or Vienna probably...though there is scope then to give them the Mexican throne later by the their Spanish cousins ( though I prefer giving that to Don Carlos if we can and let them have something else....Peru? perhaps for Charles with Louis maintaining his claims on the French throne in exile....and a hoped for restoration when and if Napoleon ever falls from grace....(not bloody likely of course..but they can always hope)

 

[Kabraloth]

Wait a minute. The person who initiated the first partition was the later emperor Joseph II, against the wishes of his mother. Prussia hopped on the bandwagen. No Prussia per se + otherwise occupied Austria = Poland pretty much stays a puppet.

 

[Homer]

Wait a minute. The person who initiated the first partition was the later emperor Joseph II, against the wishes of his mother. Prussia hopped on the bandwagen. No Prussia per se + otherwise occupied Austria = Poland pretty much stays a puppet.

Interesting...

I once read that Frederick II. came up with the plan to avoid a Russian-Austrian war over the possible Russian annexation of Walachia and Moldawia during a russo-turkish war?

So who actually came up with the plan? Maybe all three?