WI: Poland-Lithuania wins at Warsaw, 1656?

So. The battle of Warsaw was fought between Poland-Lithuania and combined Swedish and Brandenburgian armies. Poles had superior numbers, especially when it comes to cavalry, and upper ground, but the Swedes were much more disciplined and experienced after the 30 years war. Among the last attempts at winning the battle was a charge of the Hussars. The charge failed, but not all of the cavalry committed (only the Hussars, of which according to the most generous estimates there was less than one thousand, and some sources say not all of them charged), and even then Karl Gustav was heavily wounded with a lance. The Poles lost the battle, and retreated via a bridge on the Vistula to the left bank. The Swedes did pursuit, but without much effect. Warsaw was recaptured by Swedes and pillaged some more and, of course, the war dragged on for 4 more years.

What if more of the cavalry charged, breaking the lines, killing Karl Gustav, and winning the battle? The Swedish-Brandenburgian army had their backs against a swamp, and any Polish pursuit should be more successful due to larger amount of cavalry. Elector Frederick was also present at the battlefield, so there was the possibility of at least capturing him.

How does this affect the conflicts of both Swedes and Poles with Russia? Does the Polish-Swedish war end with this battle, or will it continue? And what would be the fate of Hohenzollern Prussia after Frederick's betrayal when Poland's situation suddenly get much, much better?
 
PLC victory at Warsaw, the way you describe it, would be a disaster for Swedish forces in PLC. Swedish army was already running out of soldiers, which is why Charles Gustav had made a deal with Khmelnitsky, Rakoczy and Frederick William. IOTL Swedish army withdrew north even after winning the battle. With Swedish army destroyed or eliminated (i.e. its remains running for their lives) and Frederick William captured, the only problem would be Rakoczy and Khmelnitsky. Would they attack at all? Doubtful. Rakoczy waited a long time, unsure of military situation. With John Casimir victorious, he most probably wouldn't move. Khmelnitsky himself was too weak to attack, especially after PLC got support from the Khanate of Crimea.
So, Poles have big army, John Casimir got very big prestige boost (as victorious commander), main Swedish-Brandenburgian force is destroyed. It means PLC can concentrate on clearing its territory from any foreign troops (Swedish and Brandenburg) and deal with certain ungrateful vassal, i.e. Frederick William. I think it would be even possible for PLC to annex East Prussia. From Polish POV he was a traitor, a vassal that broke his oath to his overlord, the King of Poland. So, can why not just eliminate the problem once and for all and incorporate the ungrateful province?
Had PLC enough force to do it? I think so. ITTL PLC army is stronger and can fully concentrate on Prussia-Brandenburg, especially since their ruler is in Polish captivity. So a solution IMHO would be so. Frederick William will be released and remain the ruler of Brandenburg. But the Hohenzollerns loose Prussia for ever. Konigsberg becomes Królewiec, Ducal Prussia (as it was known in Poland) becomes a new voivodship of PLC.
PLC is stronger, king John Casimir has bigger prestige, PLC is not as ruined by the war as it was IOTL. Is that enough to save the PLC in the future? Who knows. Most of its internal problems would still need to be solved.
 
You guys foget one force that was actually campining against both Sweeden and Poland- Russia.
The war with Poland will result probably the same way- after initial Russian successes( which were actually before PoD) Poles stoke back leving to Russia only left border of Dnepr( roughly) but including Kiev and Smolensk.
The war with Seeden on the other had was prety successful before Russia was forced to cease it becase principle Russian ally - Denmark was beaten( Russia have sieged Narva, Dorpat and took all the fortresses in West Dvina bassin up to Riga). With a weaker Sweeden Russia as well as Denmark would probably get favourable peace treaty which almost certanly means Russia gaines Riga or Narva or both and lage parts of if not all Livonia( actually Russia got large parts of Livonia including Koknese, Aluksne, Dorpat, Nyslott and Daugavplis but them temporaly). And that means Russia has a long desired Baltic port half a century earlier.
 
You guys foget one force that was actually campining against both Sweeden and Poland- Russia.
The war with Poland will result probably the same way- after initial Russian successes( which were actually before PoD) Poles stoke back leving to Russia only left border of Dnepr( roughly) but including Kiev and Smolensk.
The war with Seeden on the other had was prety successful before Russia was forced to cease it becase principle Russian ally - Denmark was beaten( Russia have sieged Narva, Dorpat and took all the fortresses in West Dvina bassin up to Riga). With a weaker Sweeden Russia as well as Denmark would probably get favourable peace treaty which almost certanly means Russia gaines Riga or Narva or both and lage parts of if not all Livonia( actually Russia got large parts of Livonia including Koknese, Aluksne, Dorpat, Nyslott and Daugavplis but them temporaly). And that means Russia has a long desired Baltic port half a century earlier.

I'm not forgetting about Russia, I did ask about Russia's conflict with Sweden and Poland in the OP. The war with Sweden happened as a consequence of Swedish success in Poland: Russians signed a ceasefire* with Poland because a complete Swedish victory was not in their interest, and successfully attacked the Swedes' rear. After signing the peace with Sweden, they resumed their war in Poland-Lithuania in 1658. OTL Swedish-Polish peace was signed in 1660 and after that date Poland could focus all its efforts in the east, beating Russians beyond the Dniepr, and being forced to accept the peace because a civil war broke up.

We are discussing a situation where: Russians are occupying huge swathes of Poland-Lithuania, but signed a ceasefire and attacked Sweden - alienating their Cossack allies who continued to fight Poland at Karl Gustav's side. Denmark is still at peace with Sweden. And at this point - almost exactly when Russian forces entered Swedish Livonia - Karl Gustav dies and his army suffers a great defeat.

Neither Sweden nor Poland wanted a Russian port on the Baltic. Swedes could end the Polish war at any time and Poland would be content with a white peace as the only Swedish territory Poles could potentially be interested in was just being invaded. The OTL Russian advances were made against Sweden that fought Poland-Lithuania and Denmark, while Russians could focus their efforts on Livonia. In this scenario, an earlier peace between Poland and Sweden is certainly on the table, and if it happens, the ceasefire that allowed for this campaign to happen will end and they'll have to face Poland-Lithuania in much better shape along with Sweden.

No, this will not end with Riga and Narva in Russian hands. Or Kiev.

* - I'm not sure when exactly was the ceasefire signed, but I'm pretty sure it was on when the Russo-Swedish war began.
 
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