WI: Poland-Lithuania collapses

I was thinking of a scenario where in Poland-Lithuania collapses and Balkanizes, if Poland-Lithuania collapses, what will happen to Poland and Lithuania and who would take advantage of it?

The POD is before the Silesian wars..
 
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I was thinking of a scenario where in Poland-Lithuania collapses and Balkanizes, if Poland-Lithuania collapses, what will happen to Poland and Lithuania and who would take advantage of it?

I would imagine Russia, Prussia, and Austria take advantage of it. You know, kind of like how they did IOTL.
 
In XVIII century without some serious geopolitical changes and outside intervention it requires something bordering ASBs.

Only internal power which could try something like that are various lithuanian magnats; however they have no interests in doing so. Almost all of the most powerful families posses land both in Poland and Lithuania and union divided would strip them from access to part of their wealth. Also the power of kings is theoretical; even Jan Sobieski could do nothing with lithuanians not following his orders, with weaker kings in XVIII century thereis even less reason to oppose Warsaw. Finally, lithuanian nobles will not form a single front because it would require one of them to gain too much power.

Also from 1717 and mute sejm PLC is actually a Russian dominion and as such, any change would require Russian consent; I guess any such consent would be highly unlikely, unless Russia intends to grad lithuanian territory.
 
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