WI: Poland Joins Operation Barbarossa

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A BEF sacrifice at Dunkirk, even if it went badly rather then being a modern day Coruna,, would make it a lot more difficult for the French to accept an Armistice rather than keeping up the fight from their colonies.
 
A BEF sacrifice at Dunkirk, even if it went badly rather then being a modern day Coruna,, would make it a lot more difficult for the French to accept an Armistice rather than keeping up the fight from their colonies.

Sorry, but I think quite the opposite. If the BEF together with the French troops there were surrounded, and only a small number of support troops i.e. non-combat troops evacuated; then the French especially without the French troops sent back and the 2nd BEF, are more likely to ask for a 'cease fire' earlier.
 

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A source on the effects of strategic bombing on production beyond just the effects of the bombs on machines:
https://books.google.com/books?id=6...0Q6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=bombing bmw 1943&f=false
Absenteeism was also a major factor in reducing output.

Plus of course the actual effects of the bombs:

801 production.jpg
 
Here is my take:
- Stalin threatens to break non-aggression pact USSR has with Poland (hoping they'll get scared and fold) if they participate in partition of Czechoslovakia. When they do, he breaks the pact, not wanting to look weak, abroad and in home.
- Poland feels endangered, and agrees to join anticomintern pact. Details of the agreement might vary, but its more-or-less fair deal.
- Germans break Munich agreement, and annex remnants of Czechoslovakia.
- in 1940, Germany surprise-attacks France and Low Countries, UK downs them in retalation. (no phony war, means less time for France and UK to prepare)
- no formal war between western allies and Poland, but polish trade ships often get sunk/captured by Royal Navy
- France falls about the same way as in OTL, perhaps faster, since Germans did not waste ammunition and equipment fighting Poland. Lets assume Armstice terms are same as in OTL.
- Stalin is horrified how quickly France fell, and prepares his defences (as in OTL).
- Yugoslavia remains in pact of Steel (no coup against prince-regent) because relations are better (seemingly friendly Polish-German means Yugoslavia, which was friendly with Poland considers Germany more trustworthy than IOTL), so Germans do not waste time invading it (even if they still had to fight Greece. Gee, thanks Benito.)
- After failed battle for Britain, join German-Polish army attacks USSR.
- There is shorter distance from eastern 1939 Polish border to Moscow, than from 1941 German-USSR border. German surprise bombing of Soviet airfield has further reach, deeper inside their territory - more planes than IOTL gets destroyed. Also, Polish army that was geared specifically in fight against Soviets (because Poles in early 1930s expected Germany to be bound by Versailles Treaty, and unable to rearm) participates on Axis side, rather than resisting it in 1939. This is slightly offset by Finland remaining neutral.
- Moscow falls before winter. Counterrevolution on the streets, those party commissars that failed to escape by last trains going east get lynched by mob - rotten structure collapses.
- Japan joins in, delaying Pearl Harbor until early 1942. US entry in the war does not save whats left of USSR (Hitler dows US as in OTL).
- Emerging Siberian warlords get subjugated by Germany and Japan, but they keep some autonomy - Germany wants to "take care of" area west of Urals first, while propping up puppet states is Japanese modus-operandi. Poland gets its (small) slice of Ukraine and Belarus.
- Germany, Italy, and Japan then fight Western Allies. Poland supplies Germany with resources, money, supplies, and "civilian volunteers", but does not officially join war.
- Occupation of USSR (Drang nach Osten) drains German resources and manpower, while they are losing ground in Africa and Pacific.
- Italy and Normandy get invaded. Italy switches sides (fails as IRL, and gets occupied). Paris liberated
- Poland switches sides, when half of Germany is under American occupation, and stabs Germany in the back. German units in Russia cut from support.
- in 1945 US drops atom bomb on Hamburg/Dresden/Kiel/Berlin (take your pick...)
- Hitler kills himself. Germany surrenders, Poland takes over eastern Germany (not all it did IRL, since they hadn't lost territory to USSR).
- Non-communist Russian state is created. Russia is spared another 50 years of communism. Vladimir Romanov and Alexander Kerensky arrive in *Jalta Peace conference, and try to influnce future of Russia (borders, form of government, etc).
- Atom bombs are dropped on Japan. It surrenders.
- No Soviet occupation of Manchuria = no Mao takeover of this area. China is spared Communism, Great Leap Forward, and Cultural Revolution. It just has to put up with mundane corruption of KMT.
- Baltic states remain independent. Eastern Europe does not fall to communism.

The only real losers, are those citizens of USSR that nazi would kill in 1942-1945 occupation. But again, millions of Russians soldiers who died in battle, or civilians lost collateral damage of war survived. I don't know what net result would be, so I don't claim it would be more or less dead.
Oh, and those nuked Germans. Suck to be them.

Poland probably wouldn't be able to hold on all their gains in East, but they could on some. At worst they'll keep 1939 borders in the long run.

It rest on two assumptions:
- USSR would do something that would push Poland into German hands - Stalin does not need to do it on purpose, just genuine mistake (he did his own share of those...), for example Soviet spy ring being busted trying to murder prominent person. It could happen, it just didn't. No need for ASB.
- Polish Army fighting for Germany, and not against it, would be enough to turn the tide in the East. I repeat, 1000000 men, equipped specifically to fight Soviets. Again, no need for ASB.

What if Poland join Barbarrossa, but Soviets still win?
Even if Soviets wouldn't fallen, its still better for Poles.
Germans don't murder Poles, or Polish Jews, like they didn't murder Hungarian or Italian ones (until those countries tried and failed to switch sides). No mass graves in Poland until 1944, when Soviets enter.
Soviets weren't harsher on Poles in TTL, since in OTL they were brutal enough to nominally allied Polish population. Good luck trying to outdo themselves.
Poland still gets Eastern German provinces, because:
- Stalin wanted to weaken Germany, so it wouldn't be future threat.
- Stalin didn't knew if he'll get vassal Eastern Germany, or if it'll be unified and pro-west. So pushing borders of Communist Poland that already was in his pocket, was sureway to his area of influence will be larger.
- the idea that Stalin gave Poland eastern Germany because he was so grateful that they fought Germans, so he shed tears of joy over heroism of Polish people, is frankly absurd.
 
Welcome everyone.

In answer for my last post:

I don't think so.
Defeating of USSR with Polish help was in my opinion, impossible.
Wehrmacht didn't go near Moscow (ca. 30 km) and didn't capture Leningrad and Stalingrad. Some important data was held into far east, for Stalin there was a special train 24/7. And weak Polish army couldn't change so many as didn't change other armies.
Also, there was Stalin Line in eastern Polish Border, which was very well fortified and getting into USSR would be more difficult than in real. Germans are also weaker due to no Soviet petroleum, rare metals and tanks imported in 1939-1941 (50% of trade was with Soviets).

If Poland lost with USSR:
- Poland doesn't take East German territores as didn't get Czechoslovakia nor Hungary.
- Soviet soldiers are very more brutal, many rapes on women (in Hungary ca. 300 thousand, in Germany ca. 2 million, in Poland in real 20-100 thousand, in ATL ca. 1-2 million), which causes many veneric disasters and low natural increase. Destroying of industry in whole Poland (in real only in Recovered Territories).
- Poland probably becomes Polish Soviet Socialist Republic, as it was Russia prior to 1914.
- Communist regime is stronger than in real (there wasn't collectivisation, church had better laws than in other countries, Poland was called "the happiest barrack in the camp").
- As former Soviet Republic, our access into NATO and EU can be more difficult that in real.

But in my opinion, there would be no Barbarossa.
Hitler wanted to start attack from France, which would become ally with USSR in answer to German-Polish ally, which caused attack of USSR in the same time. If attack doesn't take place, Hitler later wanted Poland to shrink and establish western border in straight line East Prussia-Upper Silesia, similar to real border Reich-GG after 1939. (in talk to general Brauchitsch in March 1939).
 
In my opinion it could work out if Hitler allied with Poland. If Poles accept one of the first offers that were:
- Germany annexes Danzig and exteritorial highway is built, but gives "access" to the sea by guaranteing rights for selling stuff in Danzig..
- Non-aggresion pact extended by 25 years
- de facto alliance against Soviets.
And if Hitler takes out West first it gives around 2 years for mobilization probrably expanding Tanks and mechanized army. (10TP tanks for example),

Why it could work out?:
- Red Army wasn't the best army before Nazis invaded. They welcomed Wehrmacht as saviours at first, until they knew what they were doing to Jews and everyone else. German attitude strengthened communist propaganda and let many believe they are fighting for their Motherland. If Poles come as saviours they could make some Russian, Belarussian and Ukrainian units in their occupation zone while Hitler would kill everyone (causing more people coming to Polish zone) in his own one.
- Soviet border 300km closer.
- Cavalry could be really helpful in big fields of Ukraine and Russia. (Germany formed Cavarly units during Barbarossa after they dissolved one before).

Poland could be at really good place after defeating Soviets. She could be pretty much in Soviet's OTL place. If USA joins the war and does big difference on Western Front while Poland stays out of the war with Allies, Poles could negotiate with Washington and London turning against Axis. Atomic Bomb is used against Germany in this scenario probrably. After the war Poland is real victor, as two powers that it was placed between are neutralized and Pilsudski's federative and Intermarrum ideas are going to be realized.
 
Sorry, but I don't buy this s-f theories made by Zychowicz :)
A few years ago I was also its fan, but later after more exact seeing on this case I changed my mind.

After partition of Czechoslovakia Hitler also said he woulnd't take any more terrain. It would be a "very good" partner.
Why Poles would be a saviours?
Latter part is a total s-f. What does USA in this scenario do and why does it win a war without Russia? In real eastern front consolidated 80% of forces.
And why Poland is real victor, so in real Italy, which changed sides, wasn't victor, lost all overseas teritories and paid reparations?
 
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