WI Poland had become Communist in 1937? Would Germany still invade Poland?

I agree that if Poland was somehow Communist in 1937, and allied with the USSR, Hitler would want to invade both countries ASAP, especially as the Soviet Army would have been weak from Stalin's purges.

However, one obstacle stood in Hitler's way, Czechoslovakia. It makes you wonder if Hitler would have tried to separate the Sudeten Germans from Czechoslovakia a year ahead of OTL, so that he could speed up his megalomaniac plans for the east.

Wouldn't Hitler at least temporarily put off his plans for pan-Germanism in the face of the Soviets sitting on his border? He was stupid, but was he that stupid? I mean yes, he might backstab the Czechs if the war goes well against the Soviets, but would he betray them otherwise? Why not have them bleed out against the Reds and take the battered corpse?
 
Hard to say since in 1937 the only other one was Mongolia.

And, to be picky, Tuva. Basically, in 1939 the only nations controlled by Communists were the same nations that had been controlled by Communists in 1930. The most notable feature of the 1930's was the complete *lack* of successful Communist revolutions. And the Polish Communist Party--small, split-prone, and unpopular even before Stalin finished it off--hardly seems to me to be a likely party to accomplish one...
 
I think the important thing is would Britain and France actually guarantee a Poland that's communist and allied with the USSR?
 
Wouldn't Hitler at least temporarily put off his plans for pan-Germanism in the face of the Soviets sitting on his border? He was stupid, but was he that stupid? I mean yes, he might backstab the Czechs if the war goes well against the Soviets, but would he betray them otherwise? Why not have them bleed out against the Reds and take the battered corpse?

Hitler in the mid to late 30s was willing to put off his long term plans for short term gain, heck if a non-communist Poland signed up for war with the USSR they would have ended up much like Hungry or Italy pre-1943.

The issue is when Britain semi sold out the Czechs Hitler misconstrued it as a check for a full scale selling out of the country.
 
I think the important thing is would Britain and France actually guarantee a Poland that's communist and allied with the USSR?
Depends on how close the Poles are with the Soviets, I think. If they are virtual puppets, unlikely. If they are akin to Tito's Yugoslavia, maybe.
 
While your point is taken, the OP doesn't specify that the POD is Poland's revolution, merely that it occurs as one butterfly among many.

So for instance, if the January 1934 German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact negotiations had ended without success and indeed a public spat where Beck accuses Pilsudski of selling out Poland and France to Hitler,

Beck got his position by Pilsudzki's favor only and had no power base on his own. Not mentioning that when it came to Pilsudzki he was pretty much a yes-man. Beck would have to be completly drunk and have a concussion to even contemplate disagreeing with Pilsudzki. And that would only get him kicked out of corridors of power. So not happening.

and if Litvinov convinces Stalin later in the year that Beck might be a useful tool then the Polish communists may be instructed to soften their stance to some elements of the government.

Upon Pilsudski's death in May 1935, the KPP starts getting together with Beck to look at options to ease out Rydz-Smigly and Mosicki, and the Moscow-based contingent start to trickle back to Warsaw. When the Anglo-German Naval Treaty is announced, that triggers Stalin's paranoia and he gives the go order for a coup. Beck is of course tragically shot by "revisionist Pilsudskiite reactionaries" part way through the affair, but things settle down into an uneasy mob-rule (Hitler is not able to intervene, having little army and intending to use it next year in the Rhineland).

If KPP tries a coup, it ends with it being utterly crushed. They had almost none (less than 1%) supporters in officer corps.

Not mentioning that within Sanacja there were no communist-lovers at all.

tl;dr: above scenario is ASB

Now to not be completely negative, there may... may be a way to get communist Poland. But it'd take more time and multiple PODs:

1. There must be more radicalisation of opposition to Sanacja. Maybe Dąb-Biernacki gets too eager and some opposition MPs die in Brest-Litovsk in 1930, making them martyrs. Which along with Great Crisis would cause mass demonstrations. Get officers on the field to overreact, and you get radicalisation spiral.

2. OTL in 1936-7 there were talks between PPS (socialists) and KPP about some kind of alliance - on KPP's insistence, in the vein of Popular Front. It was doubtful it would came to anything, but any chances were scuppered when on Stalin orders KPP got purged - so ITTL purge of KPP must not happen.

3. Let's say that afterwards a Popular Front (or Centrolew) comprising of SL (agrarians), PPS and KPP wins the elections. Say soon afterwards some officers (with Presidents support) try to coup, but they don't manage to overtrow the parliament, yet manage to throw Poland into civil war.

4. Civil war fosters increasing radicalisation, and with indirect USSR support KPP takes over the goverment.

In short Spanish Civil War in Poland. All KPP has to do is to win it.
 
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