And Lviv was at this point already going to the Ukrainian SSR.Eastern Poland has almost nothing of Value, all the Natural Resources and Industrial Centers are either in the West or the Center with a few exceptions like Lwow.
And Lviv was at this point already going to the Ukrainian SSR.
You might get an expanded Belarus SSR, or maybe even a Lithuanian-Belarusian SSR. I am not sure the soviets would want to create a Polish SSR in actual name and traditionally those lands were more Lithuanian/Belarusian. just depends on where the borders are. no matter what if the war has been such a tough fight that the soviets haven't liberated berlin by wars end, I don't see things going hot as they would be quite exhausted. they would be a bit upset, but what could they do about it if the new polish state has a legitimate government in place.
In all likliehood, the Soviets would just annex East Poland Into Belarus and Ukraine and give Vilnius to a Lithuanian Puppet.
Even Stalin wasn't so stupid. He would have guerilla warfare in Poland, constant dissent (Poles were anti-communist at this time) from men who risked their lives in order to fight against mortal enemy (Warsaw Uprising which had no chances for success showed that Poles would give their independence away so quickly). It's better to have Poles ruled by local puppet that conquer them.
depending on where the front line is, the west may decide if they are in such a strong position to keep marching into Poland as liberators until they meet the soviet lines who would be in a frantic mad dash to get any territory they could.
this would be a much different WW II, one where the soviets are ostracized and left on their own.
Stalin might not even be alive. or an enraged stalin who feels the west betrayed him or left the soviet peoples to suffer and die with out helping.
The interesting question is how the Warsaw Uprising Plays out. IOTL the Soviets halted their advance specifically so that the Germans would wipe out the Home Army Units in the City before they reached it, effectively making it so that when they rolled into Warsaw, they didn't have any elements of the Former Army or Government left in the city to oppose their puppets.
If the WAllies get there first, the Poles are in a stronger position Post War and the Government in exile can point to the uprising as a legitimizing factor to re-establishing control of West Poland, as the WAllies are unlikely to pull the same stunt the Soviets did. . .
whats to say the soviets even makes it to warsaw in time for the uprising. Maybe there is no uprising as no one is close enough to offer help or relief. so they wait.
Is this possible? Could Western Allies' advance be so fast that they seized land of west bank of Vistula and establish government in Warsaw? Maybe successful/different Market Garden could help with it.
Is this possible? Could Western Allies' advance be so fast that they seized land of west bank of Vistula and establish government in Warsaw? Maybe successful/different Market Garden could help with it.