WI: Poland divided into two states after WW2

Is this possible? Could Western Allies' advance be so fast that they seized land of west bank of Vistula and establish government in Warsaw? Maybe successful/different Market Garden could help with it.
 
One would have to stall the Soviets.

I remember reading a Valkyrie TL wherein the new German government becomes an ally of the WAllies, who execute an Operation Unthinkable-lite by surreptitiously helping the Germans in resisting the Russian offensive.
 
Eastern Poland has almost nothing of Value, all the Natural Resources and Industrial Centers are either in the West or the Center with a few exceptions like Lwow.
 
You might get an expanded Belarus SSR, or maybe even a Lithuanian-Belarusian SSR. I am not sure the soviets would want to create a Polish SSR in actual name and traditionally those lands were more Lithuanian/Belarusian. just depends on where the borders are. no matter what if the war has been such a tough fight that the soviets haven't liberated berlin by wars end, I don't see things going hot as they would be quite exhausted. they would be a bit upset, but what could they do about it if the new polish state has a legitimate government in place. The war in the east would have been a meat grinder if this is the case.
 
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You might get an expanded Belarus SSR, or maybe even a Lithuanian-Belarusian SSR. I am not sure the soviets would want to create a Polish SSR in actual name and traditionally those lands were more Lithuanian/Belarusian. just depends on where the borders are. no matter what if the war has been such a tough fight that the soviets haven't liberated berlin by wars end, I don't see things going hot as they would be quite exhausted. they would be a bit upset, but what could they do about it if the new polish state has a legitimate government in place.

In all likliehood, the Soviets would just annex East Poland Into Belarus and Ukraine and give Vilnius to a Lithuanian Puppet.
 
Even Stalin wasn't so stupid. He would have guerilla warfare in Poland, constant dissent (Poles were anti-communist at this time) from men who risked their lives in order to fight against mortal enemy (Warsaw Uprising which had no chances for success showed that Poles would give their independence away so quickly). It's better to have Poles ruled by local puppet that conquer them.
 
In all likliehood, the Soviets would just annex East Poland Into Belarus and Ukraine and give Vilnius to a Lithuanian Puppet.

Sounds about right. A weekend soviet state wouldn't be able to do much more in reality. again, if the soviets haven't managed to get to berlin the butterflies will be everywhere. You might not see a split Germany as a result as well, with east Prussia going to Poland. depending on when and where the changes occur ( no lend lease maybe? ) you could see the Soviets not being given east Germany as an occupation zone, but receiving a smaller zone if any. would the west who had to fight all the way to berlin really want and would the polish state be happy to allow passage for the soviet army to occupy parts of Germany so that they had the soviets on either side of them?! The whole war began with Poland, I don't think people want a repeat. FDR would be dead, Truman wasn't exactly friendly with the Soviets.

also, with a harder fight in the east, how rapidly would the allies in the west advance? would the war still rage in in may of 45 with the allies still somewhere in France? a lot of factors to think about
 
Even Stalin wasn't so stupid. He would have guerilla warfare in Poland, constant dissent (Poles were anti-communist at this time) from men who risked their lives in order to fight against mortal enemy (Warsaw Uprising which had no chances for success showed that Poles would give their independence away so quickly). It's better to have Poles ruled by local puppet that conquer them.

depending on where the front line is, the west may decide if they are in such a strong position to keep marching into Poland as liberators until they meet the soviet lines who would be in a frantic mad dash to get any territory they could.

this would be a much different WW II, one where the soviets are ostracized and left on their own.
Stalin might not even be alive. or an enraged stalin who feels the west betrayed him or left the soviet peoples to suffer and die with out helping.
 
depending on where the front line is, the west may decide if they are in such a strong position to keep marching into Poland as liberators until they meet the soviet lines who would be in a frantic mad dash to get any territory they could.

this would be a much different WW II, one where the soviets are ostracized and left on their own.
Stalin might not even be alive. or an enraged stalin who feels the west betrayed him or left the soviet peoples to suffer and die with out helping.

The interesting question is how the Warsaw Uprising Plays out. IOTL the Soviets halted their advance specifically so that the Germans would wipe out the Home Army Units in the City before they reached it, effectively making it so that when they rolled into Warsaw, they didn't have any elements of the Former Army or Government left in the city to oppose their puppets.

If the WAllies get there first, the Poles are in a stronger position Post War and the Government in exile can point to the uprising as a legitimizing factor to re-establishing control of West Poland, as the WAllies are unlikely to pull the same stunt the Soviets did. . .
 
Stalin could think that after greater losses that OTL it would be wise to support uprising and later betray them (by inviting them to meeting with local Soviet authorities and make them disappear). This would led to longer uprising and greater German forces engaging Home Army thus better Allied performance on Western Front.
 
The interesting question is how the Warsaw Uprising Plays out. IOTL the Soviets halted their advance specifically so that the Germans would wipe out the Home Army Units in the City before they reached it, effectively making it so that when they rolled into Warsaw, they didn't have any elements of the Former Army or Government left in the city to oppose their puppets.

If the WAllies get there first, the Poles are in a stronger position Post War and the Government in exile can point to the uprising as a legitimizing factor to re-establishing control of West Poland, as the WAllies are unlikely to pull the same stunt the Soviets did. . .


whats to say the soviets even makes it to warsaw in time for the uprising. Maybe there is no uprising as no one is close enough to offer help or relief. so they wait.
 
whats to say the soviets even makes it to warsaw in time for the uprising. Maybe there is no uprising as no one is close enough to offer help or relief. so they wait.

The point was that the Western Allies would be the ones taking Warsaw ITTL not the Soviets.

Also the Uprising was put into motion on the tacit understanding of the Home Army that the Red Army was less than three days away from Warsaw. The whole point of the Uprising was to make an effort to free the city in order to show the Allies that the Poles could free themselves, and only needed to be Relieved after taking the city on their own by the Soviets. It was as much a political move as a military one.

No Allied Army close by, no uprising. Simple as that.
 

Cook

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Is this possible? Could Western Allies' advance be so fast that they seized land of west bank of Vistula and establish government in Warsaw? Maybe successful/different Market Garden could help with it.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say: no.

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I honestly don't think so there are a lot of what ifs in this.
If you take my route, no lend lease to the soivets you could stall them but once Germany collapses, the soviets will roll to the west. so, you need to make the soviets bad guys who just happen to fighting bad guys and the germans fighting tooth and toenail in the east but surrendering in the west. ( and the west allowing that to happen willingly. which I don't think they will be so keen on once they have seen the final solution.

so no lend lease, the west is still carpet bombing and presicion bombing Germany into oblivion. Soviets stall somewhere after minsk and much bloodier fighting. ( note there isn't much good defence between minsk and warsaw so its hard to hold them back if your getting your ass handed to you in the west. )

now, that said, the Germans if the western allies are in Germany, hittler would be removed and they might surrender to them or simply keep pulling back and offering only token resistance, while moving as much as they can east to hold off the revenge of the soviets.
 
Is this possible? Could Western Allies' advance be so fast that they seized land of west bank of Vistula and establish government in Warsaw? Maybe successful/different Market Garden could help with it.

Why would the Germans continue fighting in the East if Germany is occupied? The two sides were destined to meet roughly in the middle of Germany, should the W-allies advance faster the Germans would just send more people from East to West to fight changing the balance on both fronts which results in... both sides meeting roughly in the middle of Germany at the end.
 
Are we assuming splitting Poland into East and West here, or North and South? To me the latter seems more plausible.
 
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