WI: Poland attacks the German Republic, 9/1/1939

Glen Finney said:
Democrats the Japanese are likely not to attack the Soviets due to concerns about the US getting involved or cutting them off.
Well, having Wilkie as president was one of my original wishes. Do you think we could fit it in, through butterflies?
 
Why would Poland and Russia unit? Poland just fought of the Communists twenty years before and know that any 'alliance' will see Poland dominated by Russia. And Stalin would not be drawn into any war with Poland it can't win, Stalin is too clever for that, he knows that the USSR, in 1939, can not fight off Germany, especially in alliance with the west. Stalin's biggest fear was to be tricked into a war with Germany, that's why he delayed counterattacking during Barbarossa, he thought the Germans where trying to provoke a response so Germany could blame the USSR for the war. Stalin actually valued world opinion very much.

Also, Poland was under a nationalistic government itself, one that hated communists. It was a right-wing dictatorship, as i would presume it would still be. An alliance with communists didn't seem likely. The M-R treaty was different, both sides know what it was. It was basically a promise not to A.) For Russia not to attack Germany when it's engaged in the West B.) Germany not to attack immediately Russia (Stalin was ultra-paranoid about Germany allying with the West to invade the USSR) or help destabilize the Russian Government and C.) To setup a clear sphere of each countries future conquests in the East, since both sides know that Soviet action against the Baltic States was imminent.

If Poland did attack Germany, Russia wouldn't join, using the chaos to either try to seize the Baltics (if they can think they can get away with it) or just what for Poland to collapse and take Eastern Poland (like in 1939 in OTL).

People always assume that Stalin was some power-hungry madman without any sense of timing or any plans. This is a misconception. Stalin was power-hungry, but was he suffered from a classic state of Paranoia and was incredibly cleaver and calculating. His Paranoia made risky decisions nearly impossible for him to make. Stalin could do nothing without a well thought out plan. And he would have realized that taking on Germany with Germany having at least the West's moderate support, or worse, their direct involvement would end in disaster. That's why he didn't try to invade Germany in the 20s or the West Germany in the 40s and early 50s.
 

Glen

Moderator
Nosb said:
Why would Poland and Russia unit? Poland just fought of the Communists twenty years before and know that any 'alliance' will see Poland dominated by Russia. And Stalin would not be drawn into any war with Poland it can't win, Stalin is too clever for that, he knows that the USSR, in 1939, can not fight off Germany, especially in alliance with the west. Stalin's biggest fear was to be tricked into a war with Germany, that's why he delayed counterattacking during Barbarossa, he thought the Germans where trying to provoke a response so Germany could blame the USSR for the war. Stalin actually valued world opinion very much.

Also, Poland was under a nationalistic government itself, one that hated communists. It was a right-wing dictatorship, as i would presume it would still be. An alliance with communists didn't seem likely. The M-R treaty was different, both sides know what it was. It was basically a promise not to A.) For Russia not to attack Germany when it's engaged in the West B.) Germany not to attack immediately Russia (Stalin was ultra-paranoid about Germany allying with the West to invade the USSR) or help destabilize the Russian Government and C.) To setup a clear sphere of each countries future conquests in the East, since both sides know that Soviet action against the Baltic States was imminent.

If Poland did attack Germany, Russia wouldn't join, using the chaos to either try to seize the Baltics (if they can think they can get away with it) or just what for Poland to collapse and take Eastern Poland (like in 1939 in OTL).

People always assume that Stalin was some power-hungry madman without any sense of timing or any plans. This is a misconception. Stalin was power-hungry, but was he suffered from a classic state of Paranoia and was incredibly cleaver and calculating. His Paranoia made risky decisions nearly impossible for him to make. Stalin could do nothing without a well thought out plan. And he would have realized that taking on Germany with Germany having at least the West's moderate support, or worse, their direct involvement would end in disaster. That's why he didn't try to invade Germany in the 20s or the West Germany in the 40s and early 50s.

So maybe he would give Poland reassurances of remaining out of a conflict with Germany, and then while the Poles had the Germans occupied, try to grab the Baltics, and once the Poles were on the verge of collapse after the German counterattack grab Eastern Poland as well?
 
Glen Finney said:
So maybe he would give Poland reassurances of remaining out of a conflict with Germany, and then while the Poles had the Germans occupied, try to grab the Baltics, and once the Poles were on the verge of collapse after the German counterattack grab Eastern Poland as well?

If you still believe Poland would act against Germany unilateral without the support of the west. The entire idea isn't possible with a PoD past ww1. At least you need a stronger and more industrialized Poland, because as it was on 1939 it was not a homogeneous or united nation. The Germans within the state wanted nothing to do with the Polish State, neither did the Ruthinians in the south. The Ukrainians, Belorussians, and Lithuanians all wanted their own country and stayed within the Polish nation only because they feared the USSR more then they wanted national homelands. Many Jews, some of them in the west very Germanized and others Bolshevized or Troskyized, where regarded with suspension, as where the Poles by the Jews. There was a lot of hostility their and the threat of Pogroms were always right around the corner, one of the main reasons Poland's Jewish population continued to emigrate in substantial numbers between 1919-1939.
 

Glen

Moderator
DuQuense said:
With a different Germany, you would have a different Sweden, mush more likely to come all-out to Finland's aid.

Yes, I've been thinking this as well.
 
Glen Finney said:
So maybe he would give Poland reassurances of remaining out of a conflict with Germany, and then while the Poles had the Germans occupied, try to grab the Baltics, and once the Poles were on the verge of collapse after the German counterattack grab Eastern Poland as well?
Stalin might end up taking more than he did in OTL...

BTW, with Sweeden aiding the Finns, do you think it likely that the CCCP will still win in the end?
 

Glen

Moderator
luakel said:
Stalin might end up taking more than he did in OTL...

BTW, with Sweeden aiding the Finns, do you think it likely that the CCCP will still win in the end?

Stalin hoped that...I'm thinking it might not work out so well for them.
 
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