WI: Poland attacks the German Republic, 9/1/1939

Glen

Glen

Moderator
Since today is the anniversary, and this question has been raised in our Weimar World thread (Weimar Republic survives to the present), here's a WI for you.

In the Weimar timeline, Germany is still a republic and Lettow-Vorbeck is president while there is a center-right government in the Reichstag. In the main timeline, we have there being a plebliscite in the Corridor and a small military action, leading to Germany gaining it.

But lets say that the Poles didn't gamble on winning such a thing, and instead under pressure from the League, withdrew from that organization. The German Republic, Czechoslovakia, the Baltics, and Finland still form an anti-Soviet (and unspoken anti-Polish) coalition for mutual defense.

The Poles in OTL had considered a preemptive war against Germany at some point.

Here, they probably have joined the Axis still. However, might they not also make a Devil's pact with the Soviets ala Molotov-Ribbentrop in OTL, leading to an invasion of the German coalition by Poland and the USSR on September 1, 1939. The deal is the the Soviets will take Finland, Estonia, Latvia, (oh, and they'll take Bessarabia while they are at it). The Poles will take Lithuania, some bits of Czechoslovakia, and whatever bits of Germany they can manage to get.

Mussolini was not in on the deal, presumably, so what does his axis do when the Poles and Soviets start their little war? The rest of the Axis in this timeline was Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria.

What will the UK and France do? I believe France stays neutral, and the British might actually go to war over this if the Soviets and Poles don't come to the negotiating table.

The Poles are going to get their lunch served to them by the Germans I believe, but I am certain there are others out there of different opinions.

And if the German counterattack takes Poland, and eventually moves into the USSR, it could be interesting. IOTL, the Nazis were at first seen as liberators by many in the Ukraine and Belarus, which they then completely threw away and became the oppressor. Here, the Germans likely WOULD be liberators, so could we see these supporting the Germans and even forming new nations?

What do y'all think? War results, aftermath, etc?
 

Scomerger

War may be possible, but other insights are there, too: If the German Republic had increased in military strength like Nazi Germany in OTL, only without the Nazis, then maybe the German Republic may launch an invasion of Poland, thus capturing Warsaw. This sets off a counterattack by the Soviets from the East. It's all up to you.

This is what I think:

9/1/1939- Poland and the USSR launch an invasion of Germany from the east; Germany declares war on both countries and fights back.

9/3/1939- Germany asks Great Britain and France for assistance, both decline.

9/4/1939- The Poles and Soviets enters Berlin, fierce fighting ensues. Germany, once again, asks Great Britain and France to intervene, both decline again.

9/5/1939- Berlin is captured. Great Britain is brought into the conflict. Great Britain declares war on Poland. It then sends troops and equipment to Germany.

9/6/1939- British troops helps the Germans push the Poles and Soviets out of Berlin; Poland and the USSR declares war on Great Britain.

9/7/1939- France declares war on Poland and the USSR and sends troops and equipment to Germany.

9/9/1939- Great Britain and France asks the United States for help, the US declares its neutrality from the war.

9/10/1939- British, French and German troops forms the Allies; Italy joins the Allies and declares war on Poland and the USSR.

9/13/1939- The Allies launch an invasion of Poland; the USSR declares war on Italy.

9/14/1939- Warsaw is captured, the USSR sends its troops to Warsaw.

9/15/1939- Sheer numbers of the Red Army forces the Allies to withdraw from Warsaw. The Allies are then forced out of Poland.

9/17/1939- Strange calm befalls upon Europe as the Allies moblilze thier troops to their borders and transforms their economies for the war effort; Belgium and Netherlands declares war on Poland and the USSR.


More to go...

(By the way, what do you think of this? :D )
 
Last edited:

GBW

Dojo said:
9/5/1939- Berlin is captured. Great Britain is brought into the conflict. Great Britain declares war on Poland. It then sends troops and equipment to Germany.

9/6/1939- British troops helps the Germans push the Poles and Soviets out of Berlin; Poland and the USSR declares war on Great Britain.

9/7/1939- France declares war on Poland and the USSR and sends troops and equipment to Germany.

9/9/1939- Great Britain and France asks the United States for help, the US declares its neutrality from the war.

9/10/1939- British, French and German troops forms the Allies; Italy joins the Allies and declares war on Poland and the USSR.

9/13/1939- The Allies launch an invasion of Poland; the USSR declares war on Italy.
Click to expand...

Britain managed to send enough troops in one day to enable a joint Anglo-German counterattack to retake Berlin? And less then a week after Poland took Berlin, the Allies have assembled and organized enough of a force to counterattack into Poland? That's quite a bit from the standing start the British and French had from not willing to get involved at all.
 

GBW

Dojo said:
Well, I didn't know enough. So what do I need to do to modify it? (Not criticizing or flaming).
Click to expand...
First of all, sorry if that seemed harsh. Second, were there any tensions leading up to the Polish-Soviet invasions? Britain and France might have allowed a partial mobilization of their forces just in case and that would allow for a faster transport to eastern Germany. In the case of OTL, Hitler had made it quite clear that he was aiming at Poland after promising to not demand any more territory after Munich and then annexing Bohemia and Moravia. In this case, the League of Nations oversaw this plebiscite in the Corridor and, in response, Poland withdrew from the League. Without the lead up as Hitler gave throughout the late 1930s, and considering that Germany would have seemed quite capable of taking care of itself and provide a 'buffer' against Poland and its Red allies, the British and French would have been much more complacent than OTL, IMO.

Let's say the Polish blitzkrieg takes Berlin on September 5 as in your TL and prompts the British to get involved. I'd assume the Baltics would be in the process of being overrun by the Red Army at this point, while Slovakia is being overrun by Polish forces and Finland is providing a stiff defense against the Red Army. The French might start with providing weapons and maybe 'volunteers' to Germany at first, still a lot of bad memories of the last war there; the British, if they enter the war at this point, will be able to provide RAF air support almost right away since they could fly to German bases and the Germans, presumably, would have the infrastructure to supply them. It would take longer for British troops to mobilize and cross the North Sea to unload at Hamburg and then travel across northern Germany by rail to the front. France would join in soon after, as you said, and start sending troops overland. I'd say, hmm, mid to late November at the earliest before such an Allied force would be assembled, supplied and ready to launch a counterattack alongside German forces with more troops and freighters carrying supplies across the North Sea on the way. Czechoslovakia would be in dire straits by then, if not outright conquered, and Finland would likely still be holding out.
 

Gladi

Bright day
We fought war with Poland in 1921 which ended in stalemate (yes they were occupied on other front, but so would they be now). Furthermore Polish-Slovak/Subcarpathian borders are all-mountains and easily reinforced by new "backbone" railway. And we had some tachnical superiority OTL... And if Poland entices CCCP with offer to help with Romania- thic could bring Yugoslavia to declare war.
 

GBW

Gladi said:
Bright day
We fought war with Poland in 1921 which ended in stalemate (yes they were occupied on other front, but so would they be now). Furthermore Polish-Slovak/Subcarpathian borders are all-mountains and easily reinforced by new "backbone" railway. And we had some tachnical superiority OTL... And if Poland entices CCCP with offer to help with Romania- thic could bring Yugoslavia to declare war.
Click to expand...
You're right, I didn't really give Czechoslovakia enough credit, I suppose. I daresay the Poles would have managed to advance to some degree; perhaps their aim would have been to cut the country in half? Seperate the west and the east? Did the Slovak portion have as much industry as Bohemia?
 
Glen

Glen

Moderator
GBW said:
You're right, I didn't really give Czechoslovakia enough credit, I suppose. I daresay the Poles would have managed to advance to some degree; perhaps their aim would have been to cut the country in half? Seperate the west and the east? Did the Slovak portion have as much industry as Bohemia?
Click to expand...

Almost none to speak of, which is one of the reasons they put them together, IIRC.

Also, in this tl the Czechs have been close to the Germans in the 1930s, so may even have done some training with the Germans. And Great Britain is closer to Germany and the Baltics in this timeline, so expect a declaration of war sooner. There were members of Parliament in OTL demanding war against the Soviets over Poland, IIRC.

France will likely remain neutral so long as it looks like Germany will hold.

The Poles don't necessarily have the idea of Blitzkrieg, and probably not as good of weapons. They aren't going to allow the Soviets into Polish territory in the beginning.

Stalin probably expects them to relent and let the Soviets in or to fall and then the Soviets will pick up the pieces, basically using the Poles as a speedbump against the Germans.
 

Gladi

Bright day
It is possible to cut it in half- the railway runs at one point very close to Poles (the land itself was given to CS only to build it there, instead of Poland), but army command would know this as well... I am not military fan so I do not know that much, there were never many plans about Poland OTL.
 
Glen

Glen

Moderator
Wendell said:
Well, Glen, could this prompt Japan to act?
Click to expand...

Indeed it could, depending on the course of the war in China, and the actions of the US during the same time period.

If things go badly for the Soviets in the West, I could see the possibility of the Japanese considering it, assuming that they aren't having problems with the US at the same time.
 

Wendell

Glen Finney said:
Indeed it could, depending on the course of the war in China, and the actions of the US during the same time period.

If things go badly for the Soviets in the West, I could see the possibility of the Japanese considering it, assuming that they aren't having problems with the US at the same time.
Click to expand...
Well, it could depend on who was in charge in the U.S. as well.
 
Glen

Glen

Moderator
Wendell said:
Well, it could depend on who was in charge in the U.S. as well.
Click to expand...

Definitely would: Democrats the Japanese are likely not to attack the Soviets due to concerns about the US getting involved or cutting them off. Republicans and their isolationism will reassure the Japanese that they won't be attacked or cut off and will seriously consider action against the Soviets should there appear to be an opportunity. However, the Japanese aren't crazy, so if they have had a Nomonhan like OTL, they will only attack if the Soviets have stripped the Far East to defend in the West. Then again, there might not have been a Nomonhan in this timeline.
 

Wendell

Glen Finney said:
Definitely would: Democrats the Japanese are likely not to attack the Soviets due to concerns about the US getting involved or cutting them off. Republicans and their isolationism will reassure the Japanese that they won't be attacked or cut off and will seriously consider action against the Soviets should there appear to be an opportunity. However, the Japanese aren't crazy, so if they have had a Nomonhan like OTL, they will only attack if the Soviets have stripped the Far East to defend in the West. Then again, there might not have been a Nomonhan in this timeline.
Click to expand...
Or, could the U.S. and Japan strike a deal over issues pertaining to China?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top