WI: Poland Agrees to Danzig Consession

There is a big difference between Austria/Sudetenland/Danzig and Switserland. There are barely any Germans in Switserland, while in the other areas Germans were a majority.

I always thought the Swiss were considered part of the Volk. In any case which other german-majority target do you think he would hypothetically go after?
 

Zagan

Donor
There is a big difference between Austria/Sudetenland/Danzig and Switserland. There are barely any Germans in Switserland, while in the other areas Germans were a majority.

More than 3/4 of Switzerland's population are ethnic Germans.
 
More than 3/4 of Switzerland's population are ethnic Germans.
No, they speak German. There is a difference between that. The Swiss don't consider themselves German and they were generaly considered to be a different people. Not unlike the Dutch for example. So if Hitler, who to be fair did not care what other people think, want to annex (the German speaking) part of Switserland, he has to actualy conquer Switserland.
 
Hitler looks for something else to annex until he gets the war he wants. Maybe Eupen-Malmedy, maybe Luxemburg. He'll find something. Hitler wanted war and if someone wants war, you can't avoid it.
If you can put it off by six months though the British and the French will be fighting with much better equipment.
 
For Hitler to make a serious demand of Poland (i.e. for it not to be an attempt to bait the Poles into a war) and for Poland to accept requires, IMO, a very different situation in Europe. For example if both Poland and Germany were both more isolated (meaning a big war was clearly a risk for both). So say Poland has no Franco-British guarantee for some reason, and Germany has no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

What happens next is that Germany does its best to pull Poland into its economic and military orbit (easy in the case of the economy, harder in the military case), while Poland (in concert with Romania) tries its best to regain its economic independence by upgrading rail and port infrastructure through Eastern Poland to Romania and eventually the Black Sea and continues its efforts to build up its military.

Most likely Germany allies with Lithuania.

Most likely Germany will attack France in the near future. Exactly how near is an interesting question though.

fasquardon
 
For Hitler to make a serious demand of Poland (i.e. for it not to be an attempt to bait the Poles into a war) and for Poland to accept requires, IMO, a very different situation in Europe. For example if both Poland and Germany were both more isolated (meaning a big war was clearly a risk for both). So say Poland has no Franco-British guarantee for some reason, and Germany has no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

What happens next is that Germany does its best to pull Poland into its economic and military orbit (easy in the case of the economy, harder in the military case), while Poland (in concert with Romania) tries its best to regain its economic independence by upgrading rail and port infrastructure through Eastern Poland to Romania and eventually the Black Sea and continues its efforts to build up its military.

Most likely Germany allies with Lithuania.

Most likely Germany will attack France in the near future. Exactly how near is an interesting question though.

fasquardon

I do not see the Polish government making this concession. Judging by their behavior OTL, they would rather go down. They accepted going to war when it was clear that Germany could overrun them. They refused to even consider the alliance with the Soviet Union. The only possibility, and that is a slim one (ASB almost) is that Soviet Union si more aggressive and rattles the saber on Poland. Even then, I think they would refuse the German help in the same way they refused the Soviet help.

And I find it hard to see why would France and Britain abandon them. Would this be prior to Czechoslovakia and Munich?

Finaly, once Germany settles things with Poland one way or the other, I do not see the need to confront France. If the allies have already decided to give Germany a free hand in the East, as is obvious from all this, the entire rationale Germany had for fighting the French is gone.
 
I do not see the Polish government making this concession. Judging by their behavior OTL, they would rather go down. They accepted going to war when it was clear that Germany could overrun them. They refused to even consider the alliance with the Soviet Union. The only possibility, and that is a slim one (ASB almost) is that Soviet Union si more aggressive and rattles the saber on Poland. Even then, I think they would refuse the German help in the same way they refused the Soviet help.

And I find it hard to see why would France and Britain abandon them. Would this be prior to Czechoslovakia and Munich?

In OTL the Poles had France and Britain giving them a strong guarantee - they thought that they could resist the German advance for long enough that France and Britain would smash Germany in from the West. Without a guarantee, the choice would be much harder. Certainly, if Germany behaved as OTL in Czechoslovakia prior to putting the squeeze on Poland, I think Poland would probably fight, as they would have evidence of just how little Hitler cared to keep the agreements he made. If Czechoslovakia goes differently, however, then an isolated Poland may well choose not to fight (or rather, not to fight right away - Poland might make concessions to buy time, but I really can't see them meekly accepting German domination, though said fight may not involve bullets).

OTL the Germans did try to bring the Poles into an anti-Soviet alliance. (While also demanding to cut the Poles off from the sea.) The Poles didn't trust the German motives. The only way to change that is for Germany to actually have better motives, I think. So yes, I agree, it's almost ASB for Poland to enter into such an alliance.

Britain and France could very easily abandon Poland.

IOTL, France at several times considered dropping Poland for the Soviets (fell through because the French didn't think they could trust the Soviets). Also, there were some in France (Laval, for example) who thought that they should stop with the whole "great power" charade and accept being Germany's sidekick.

As for Britain, the British foreign office had an almost irrational hatred of Poland. Ever since 1918 they had been thinking of Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe as "Germany's natural area of influence". Naturally, much ink was spilled bemoaning the obstinate Poles who refused to kneel to the superior and civilized Germany. Then Munich happened, and the British began to reconsider their opinions on Germany and Eastern Europe...

So there are a few ways either could decide to stay out of what happens in Poland.

Note, I don't think any of this is terribly likely. I was just outlining what I saw to be the prerequisites for Poland agreeing to concede Danzig.

Finaly, once Germany settles things with Poland one way or the other, I do not see the need to confront France. If the allies have already decided to give Germany a free hand in the East, as is obvious from all this, the entire rationale Germany had for fighting the French is gone.

Hm. If the PoD is a Lavalist France that rolls over and shows its belly when Germany barks, signs up to a war with the Soviet Union, gives up Alsace Lorraine upon request, signs whatever unequal trade treaty the Germans present, then yes, the rationale for Germany fighting France is gone. On the other hand, if France doesn't do all of that, then Germany will have a number of reasons to still invade France. The biggest one being the loot (which Germany needs to maintain its blistering re-armament plans).

fasquardon
 
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