WI: Poland against Germany Alone

What if Stalin, for whatever reason (insert the one you think is most plausible), stays neutral when Hitler invades Poland. How does this change the outcome of the war? How long would the Poles hold out?
 
The Poles could try to hold out in the Pripet marshes or down by Rommania longer. This probably means that more people are able to get out of the country via Rommania meaning a larger pool for the the Polish armed forces in exile.

The German occupation would include a bunch of Ukrainians, Lithuanians etc and Germany will have to figure out what occupation policy it has for those.
 
The lack of a Soviet invasion would allow the Poles to withdraw to the Romanian bridgehead where they hoped to hold out until Spring whilst the promised French offensive crushed Germany in the west. Obviously that invasion wasn't coming, which more or less dooms the Poles eventually but it might, ironically, save France. That relies on the Poles pulling off an organised retreat however, which would be unlikely in the chaos of Fall Weiss, it's more likely they'd put up a trademark stubborn and heroic last stand against the Germans but I doubt they could hold much longer than early November.
 
Germany will have to figure out what occupation policy it has for those.

The same as for the Poles? And the same these people got later when Germany attacked the Soviets?

The main difference will be that when the war against the Soviet Union begins, German troops are further East, and Germany had the opportunity to build up infrastructure into Eastern Poland to support Barbarossa.

As a consequence, it's possible that the Germans not only reach the outskirts of Moscow exhaustedly, they close a ring half around Moscow and loose a major battle before retreating exhausted.
 
Short of a prompt French invasion of Germany in strength right after the declaration of war (presumably causing the rapid defeat of Germany), I don’t think anything can be done to stop Stalin. IIRC he feared that, if the USSR did nothing while Germany occupied all of Poland, it might not withdraw from ‘his’ part.

The same as for the Poles? And the same these people got later when Germany attacked the Soviets?

The main difference will be that when the war against the Soviet Union begins, German troops are further East, and Germany had the opportunity to build up infrastructure into Eastern Poland to support Barbarossa.

As a consequence, it's possible that the Germans not only reach the outskirts of Moscow exhaustedly, they close a ring half around Moscow and loose a major battle before retreating exhausted.

This might also cause Stalin to prepare for Barbarossa better. Especially if he decides to enquire if Germany means to withdraw from eastern Poland and gets a negative reply. (Although I’m not sure if Hitler would dare to try such a thing before defeating France…). Also, for what it’s worth, the Soviets will have a ready defensive line.
 
Top