WI: PM Rab Butler?

Wolfpaw

Banned
Fairly straightforward question. What if instead of Macmillan becoming PM after Eden's resignation Rab Butler ascended to the Premiership? He was the heir presumptive, after all. How would things have turned out in the UK? The world? One huge butterfly that comes to mind is the fact that there'd likely be no "Wind of Change" speech.

That's all for now. Discuss :)
 
Rab was one of the founders of One Nationalism (hardly a plus for me) and a social progressive. Like Wilson he will try to liberalize social legislation- relax divorce law, decriminalize homosexuality and abortion, and remove the remnants of press censorship. Abroad he will push for decolonization, though like all Tory PMs except Heath Rab was an Atlanticist/Commonwealther. On the economy- the usual One Nationalistic Keynesianism, but in the early 1960s it won't make that much of a difference. What he would do about Rhodesia is uncertain- would Smith declare UDI under a Tory government. Rab would face strong opposition from the party right on social questions (senior neoliberals were then only Powell and Thorneycroft)- among others the then-backbencher Margaret Thatcher. They would want to keep the social laws as is, excepting homosexuality, though not out of pro-gay rights feelings, rather due to unenforceability. Polaris probably is acquired. TSR2 and CVA-01 might be kept. Perhaps the Arrow is procured from Canada. There isn't enough money in the defence budget for all 3, so they'd have to choose. Rab would be implacably opposed by Macmillan on personal rivalry grounds, which means he keeps the Chancellorship. The only other Chancellor would be Thorneycroft, who's a monetarist and a pioneer of the neoliberal wing of the Tory Party. Since No 10 and No 11 need to be on the same page regarding monetary policy, the One National, Keynesian Macmillan stays Chancellor. Fyfe would become Home Secretary, Home Foreign Secretary and DPM. Heath and Reggie Maudling get senior economic posts- or Heath becomes Leader of the House and Maudling at the DTI.
 
Yes to both those questions. The problem is that there will be a generation gap that will be quite visible in 1964- Wilson is fourteen years younger than Butler and a lot more energetic. Like Blair, Wilson is a ruthless tactician, charismatic, telegenic and a smoothie. Butler is none of those things. The main reason Rab lost IOTL is because Macmillan, for all his Edwardian paternalist air, knew how to wield a switchblade. In essence, Butler lost because he wasn't ruthless or devious enough to sway the Tory grandees known as the Magic Circle who chose Conservative leaders until leadership elections were introduced in 1965. If Profumo happens, the Tories are finished. Even without Profumo and if JFK handles the Polaris fallout better, the Tories will have been in office for 13 years, and will need to make a better case to the electorate than "peace and prosperity" to win a fourth term. If they do their majority will be more like 40 or 50 instead of their 100-seat majority from '59.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Wow, so Fyfe gets the Home and Foreign Ministries and the Deputy Premiership? Dayum.

With regards to decolonization, will Butler push for it as hard as Macmillan did? I presume Butler will also quash anything even remotely suggestive of European integration. Askelion seems to believe that as PM, Butler would do all he could to help Rhodesia-Nyasaland, and seeing as Askelion is (to my knowledge) the only Zimbo on this board, I'm inclined to believe his theories. It's all laid out in one of Askelion's (many) unfinished TLs.
 
No, Fyfe gets the Home Office, Home the Foreign Office, Macmillan the Chancellorship. A Home Secretary as DPM is the ideal, since the DPM runs daily domestic affairs and party business for the PM. The standard for DPMs is Willie Whitelaw, and Fyfe, who served in the Home Office under Churchill and Eden, is suited perfectly for that role. He would probably leave Europe alone, and I'll defer to Askelion on Zimbo questions.
 
RB: Your wrong about former Tory PMs and America, unless Eden somehow does not count, also Home is more likely Secretary of State for War, with Macmillan kept as Chancellor, Iain MacLeod may be an outside bet for the FCO.
 
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