Madeleine Birchfield
Banned
What happens if during the Black September in 1970 the Palastine Liberation Organisation were able to defeat the Jordanian Armed Forces and take over the entirety of Jordan?
Israel won't let that happen, they'll invade stop that before King Hussein is dead.
What happens if during the Black September in 1970 the Palastine Liberation Organisation were able to defeat the Jordanian Armed Forces and take over the entirety of Jordan?
A PLO takeover would only have occurred if the Jordanian armed forces, or enough of them, had turned against Hussein and killed him. The PLO couldn't succeed by itself; that's why it needed Syrian intervention. The problem was, Israel was poised to intervene if the Jordanians couldn't hold them back. The RJAF's F-5s routed the Syrians.
If the PLO had taken over in 1970, Jordan would've received a lot of Soviet arms and participated in the joint arab attack at the start of the '73 war. That might've cost Israel the Golan since it would be reluctant to send the 7th armored brigade there just prior to the war had Jordan seemed poised to attack with big, Soviet equipped forces.
Though a PLO takeover probably butterflies away the '73 war as we know it because as you noted, Israel was poised to intervene if Syria's intervention actually helped the PLO to takeover Jordan.
So we get the next major middle east war in 1970 in Jordan between Israel and their royalist Jordanian allies and Syria and their PLO allies. If Israel is successful then there is no PLO takeover (except maybe briefly before the Israeli intervention) and Syria is probably heavily crippled militarily (which might butterfly away her participation in any Egyptian attempt at war in 1973
If Israel fails, then there is a PLO takeover of Jordan but more importantly Israel's armed forces were defeated in Jordan by the Syrians and PLO,
But I envisaged only one path to a PLO takeover--a pro-PLO revolt in the Jordanian armed forces and death or overthrow of Hussein. In that case, Syrian intervention wouldn't be necessary and Israel wouldn't have a pretext to intervene.
But I envisaged only one path to a PLO takeover--a pro-PLO revolt in the Jordanian armed forces and death or overthrow of Hussein. In that case, Syrian intervention wouldn't be necessary and Israel wouldn't have a pretext to intervene.
The Arab population in the West Bank and Gaza are liable to be expelled if the PLO declares a Palestinian state in Jordan given Israel now has the excuse of a Palestinian state they can be sent to.
Any open intervention or reinstalling of the monarchy by Israel would discredit it.
Assuming they take over without Syrian Intervention...
The PLO won't be exiled to Lebanon, either stopping or delaying that Civil War.
If Jordan is proclaimed Palestine (or East Palestine), I expect other Arab countries are going to start kicking out Palestinian Refugees (whom they pretty much keep/kept in Apartheid-like conditions). Meanwhile they're going to claim (at the very least) the West Bank and Gaza as territories of theirs that are occupied. At most they'll say everything from the River to the Sea is occupied territory.
Israel isn't going to hand over the West Bank to Arafat and Israel isn't going to expel the population of the West Bank, so that's going to continue to be a festering sore. The Israelis were okay with handing off the West Bank to Jordan OTL so long as it was demilitarized. I don't see them trusting the PLO with such an arrangement.
If the King survives and escapes, maybe the Israelis could put *him* in charge of the West Bank. If they stick the King in Ramallah and tell him "here this is yours now" based on preexisting Jordanian claims that weren't abandoned OTL until 1988, that's a solution for them (the only issue is that such a polity would probably continue to claim the East Bank). Levi Eshol looked at the prospect of establishing an Arab-Israeli Federation after the 6-Day War, with Israel being the only one with a military but he couldn't find a partner. The Hashemites in Ramallah could serve as that partner here perhaps.
There's gonna be refugees from a PLO-run Jordan. Hijazis, Circassians, Armenians, etc.
Not going to happen. Even if they have a new country to control, a lot of the radicals will try and keep the war going with Israel. Plus, Israel would see its neighbor with the longest border become hostile, something which would terrify them as they can't cover the whole border. Plus, none of the neighboring countries would let the PLO keep Jordan; its existence as a semi-neutral state benefits too many people.Then they have "Palestine", which ends their claim to not have a country. Middle East conflict solved.
With a hostile Jordan, the 1973 war would take a much more different path. With the IDF expending resources to take out PLO power in Jordan, it would be mobilized even on Yom Kippur, but the constant drain would make it more vulnerable to Egyptian-Syrian assault and the retaking of Sinai would be unlikely.A PLO takeover would only have occurred if the Jordanian armed forces, or enough of them, had turned against Hussein and killed him. The PLO couldn't succeed by itself; that's why it needed Syrian intervention. The problem was, Israel was poised to intervene if the Jordanians couldn't hold them back. The RJAF's F-5s routed the Syrians.
If the PLO had taken over in 1970, Jordan would've received a lot of Soviet arms and participated in the joint arab attack at the start of the '73 war. That might've cost Israel the Golan since it would be reluctant to send the 7th armored brigade there just prior to the war had Jordan seemed poised to attack with big, Soviet equipped forces.
That's.... incredibly unlikely. The Arab Legion is an odd case in being a monarchist rather than national army, with an emphasis on serving the King rather than the nation. That's changed somewhat recently, but for the most part, stability of the country relies on a strong, stable monarchy, so the army would be loyal to the King either way.But I envisaged only one path to a PLO takeover--a pro-PLO revolt in the Jordanian armed forces and death or overthrow of Hussein. In that case, Syrian intervention wouldn't be necessary and Israel wouldn't have a pretext to intervene.
Also, IAF planes started flying around near the border with Irbid in the north, a clear message to the Syrians that if they intervened, the Israelis would take as a sign that they should get involved as well.Syria did suffer high losses in 1970, largely due to RJAF F-5s. Things wouldn't have been too bad for Syria if the fighting was confined to Jordan and the Syrians withdrew without pouring in reinforcements. In the OTL, Assad didn't commit his air force to the fighting.
The Lebanese Civil War was going to happen anyways, but it would certainly have been delayed without PLO presence. They were already treating the Palestinians pretty shit even before this, so things would probably get worse - then again, the excessive brutality might just be the trigger to finally blow the powder keg of Lebanese ethnic strife.Assuming they take over without Syrian Intervention...
The PLO won't be exiled to Lebanon, either stopping or delaying that Civil War.
If Jordan is proclaimed Palestine (or East Palestine), I expect other Arab countries are going to start kicking out Palestinian Refugees (whom they pretty much keep/kept in Apartheid-like conditions). Meanwhile they're going to claim (at the very least) the West Bank and Gaza as territories of theirs that are occupied. At most they'll say everything from the River to the Sea is occupied territory.
Israel isn't going to hand over the West Bank to Arafat and Israel isn't going to expel the population of the West Bank, so that's going to continue to be a festering sore. The Israelis were okay with handing off the West Bank to Jordan OTL so long as it was demilitarized. I don't see them trusting the PLO with such an arrangement.
If the King survives and escapes, maybe the Israelis could put *him* in charge of the West Bank. If they stick the King in Ramallah and tell him "here this is yours now" based on preexisting Jordanian claims that weren't abandoned OTL until 1988, that's a solution for them (the only issue is that such a polity would probably continue to claim the East Bank). Levi Eshol looked at the prospect of establishing an Arab-Israeli Federation after the 6-Day War, with Israel being the only one with a military but he couldn't find a partner. The Hashemites in Ramallah could serve as that partner here perhaps.
There's gonna be refugees from a PLO-run Jordan. Hijazis, Circassians, Armenians, etc.
With a hostile Jordan, the 1973 war would take a much more different path. With the IDF expending resources to take out PLO power in Jordan,
That's.... incredibly unlikely. The Arab Legion is an odd case in being a monarchist rather than national army, with an emphasis on serving the King rather than the nation. That's changed somewhat recently, but for the most part, stability of the country relies on a strong, stable monarchy, so the army would be loyal to the King either way.
To put it another way, the chances of a successful full PLO infiltration of the Arab Legion are so incredibly small you'd have better luck winning the lottery two years in a row.
But yes, assuming the PLO can weaken or disrupt the military command, it would put the monarch in a really bad place.
Also, IAF planes started flying around near the border with Irbid in the north, a clear message to the Syrians that if they intervened, the Israelis would take as a sign that they should get involved as well.