Been discussed...a lot, actually. You might want to try an advanced search for "Neutral Italy" in Titles in the Post 1900 boards...you'll get several hits.
Yes, very plausible with a number of possible PODs. Nearly happened OTL as Mussie was indecisive on the war up to the final days of the Battle of France.
Synopsis of a Neutral Italy has basically been:
1. Good for the allied naval effort, as that's one less fleet to deal with, bad for the German and Japanese naval efforts, as that frees up allied naval forces and seaplanes to turn agains the KM and IJN. Allied Naval superiority probably a year earlier. No Taranto example may affect how/if Pearl Harbor goes down.
2. Slightly better for Barbarossa. Bumps things up maybe a week or two (definately NOT the month those unfamiliar with the Rasputina season claim) and gives the Wehrmacht a few more armored divisions. Plus the Falshirmjaeger aren't wasted in Crete. Not enough for the Germans to WIN Barbarossa most likely, but it'll be a lot tougher fight for the Red Army. They may even lose Leningrad early ITTL. Mussie probably sends a corps of "Volunteers" to fight the Reds. Perhaps Germany holds 6-18 months longer in the east.
3. In the long run the US is probably getting involved one way or another, the eastern front will turn against Germany, and the Allies will win. Maybe D-Day gets pushed up a little. Without Torch and Huskey, etc., to build off of it'll be a much harder go due to inexperience. Depending on how the Western Front goes will determine whether Germany holds out longer or shorter (+or- 6-18 months), and where the eventual *Iron Curtain is drawn.
4. Italy perhaps opportunistically jumps in on the Allied side near the end to claim some spoils.
5. Maybe Italy jumps Yugoslavia in 1940...results would be as much a clusterf- as Greece was OTL, but without African distractions Italy probably eventually wins enough to force some border changes and/or set up an independent Slovenia and Croatia.
Yes, very plausible with a number of possible PODs. Nearly happened OTL as Mussie was indecisive on the war up to the final days of the Battle of France.
Synopsis of a Neutral Italy has basically been:
1. Good for the allied naval effort, as that's one less fleet to deal with, bad for the German and Japanese naval efforts, as that frees up allied naval forces and seaplanes to turn agains the KM and IJN. Allied Naval superiority probably a year earlier. No Taranto example may affect how/if Pearl Harbor goes down.
2. Slightly better for Barbarossa. Bumps things up maybe a week or two (definately NOT the month those unfamiliar with the Rasputina season claim) and gives the Wehrmacht a few more armored divisions. Plus the Falshirmjaeger aren't wasted in Crete. Not enough for the Germans to WIN Barbarossa most likely, but it'll be a lot tougher fight for the Red Army. They may even lose Leningrad early ITTL. Mussie probably sends a corps of "Volunteers" to fight the Reds. Perhaps Germany holds 6-18 months longer in the east.
3. In the long run the US is probably getting involved one way or another, the eastern front will turn against Germany, and the Allies will win. Maybe D-Day gets pushed up a little. Without Torch and Huskey, etc., to build off of it'll be a much harder go due to inexperience. Depending on how the Western Front goes will determine whether Germany holds out longer or shorter (+or- 6-18 months), and where the eventual *Iron Curtain is drawn.
4. Italy perhaps opportunistically jumps in on the Allied side near the end to claim some spoils.
5. Maybe Italy jumps Yugoslavia in 1940...results would be as much a clusterf- as Greece was OTL, but without African distractions Italy probably eventually wins enough to force some border changes and/or set up an independent Slovenia and Croatia.