WI/Plausibility check - Neutral Italy, WWII

Been discussed...a lot, actually. You might want to try an advanced search for "Neutral Italy" in Titles in the Post 1900 boards...you'll get several hits.

Yes, very plausible with a number of possible PODs. Nearly happened OTL as Mussie was indecisive on the war up to the final days of the Battle of France.

Synopsis of a Neutral Italy has basically been:

1. Good for the allied naval effort, as that's one less fleet to deal with, bad for the German and Japanese naval efforts, as that frees up allied naval forces and seaplanes to turn agains the KM and IJN. Allied Naval superiority probably a year earlier. No Taranto example may affect how/if Pearl Harbor goes down.

2. Slightly better for Barbarossa. Bumps things up maybe a week or two (definately NOT the month those unfamiliar with the Rasputina season claim) and gives the Wehrmacht a few more armored divisions. Plus the Falshirmjaeger aren't wasted in Crete. Not enough for the Germans to WIN Barbarossa most likely, but it'll be a lot tougher fight for the Red Army. They may even lose Leningrad early ITTL. Mussie probably sends a corps of "Volunteers" to fight the Reds. Perhaps Germany holds 6-18 months longer in the east.

3. In the long run the US is probably getting involved one way or another, the eastern front will turn against Germany, and the Allies will win. Maybe D-Day gets pushed up a little. Without Torch and Huskey, etc., to build off of it'll be a much harder go due to inexperience. Depending on how the Western Front goes will determine whether Germany holds out longer or shorter (+or- 6-18 months), and where the eventual *Iron Curtain is drawn.

4. Italy perhaps opportunistically jumps in on the Allied side near the end to claim some spoils.

5. Maybe Italy jumps Yugoslavia in 1940...results would be as much a clusterf- as Greece was OTL, but without African distractions Italy probably eventually wins enough to force some border changes and/or set up an independent Slovenia and Croatia.
 
I don't think Mussolni's staying out of the war would affect Yugoslavia's history overmuch, not least of all the Soviet-backed communist government that came to power, Mussolini's arrogant, but not suicidal enough to pick a one-man fight against the Soviet Union.

Neutral Mussolini is a gift from heaven for Yugoslavia and its peoples. Without Mussolini support Ustaše will not come to power. Hitler thought they were mad and that tells you something. Whatever pupet regieme is instaled in Yugoslavia if Germany invades will be a 100 times better than those maniacs. The result is that Croat-Serbian resentment stays just that rather than outright hatred between 1941 and 1943. Without serious opposition to a normal pupet regieme there is no massive support for the Tito's partizans. In other words Communists do not come to power. Once the war is over Yugoslavia is in the western camp.

Should Hitler not invade Yugoaslavia manintains neutrality just as Italy though silently supportive of the UK. When Hitler is defeated Yugoslavia is in the western camp and slowly on the move to become a confederacy under a joint monarch. The process started by Cvetković and Maček will continue and by late 1960's the country would probably be made out of 3 confederated states Slovenia or Drava Banovina, Croatia or Banovina Croatia and Kingdom of Serbia. The country would be have a solid industry supported by agriculture and having a bonus in turism. Sumertime in Croatia and winter time in Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. As time would go on Macedonians and Albanians would get some form cultural autonomy, though Macedonians much sooner than Albanians. Muslims in Bosnia will be inticed to declare as either Croat or Serb and by the end of 20th century both Croats and Serbs could be have significant minority of compatriots following Islam though slowly becoming christians under peer preasure. There would still be a muslim community in Bosnia that would feel separate but far less numerous than it is today. I guess probably no more than 500 000 on the 2001 census.
 
Germany would be in a stronger position and would not be sidetracked into Greece and North Africa to support the Italians so that operation Barbarossa would take place 6 weeks earlier and Hitler may have reached Moscow before winter set in. Britain would also not have had a few successes in 1940 which provided morale boosters; Calabria, Taranto, Matapan and Operation Compass. The liberation of occupied Europe would have been via Sardinia and Southern France from French North Africa assuming Russia was still in the game.

It would rely not so much on minor personal matters but Mussolini showing a bit more sense and realising that Britain wasn't finished but being Mussolini he didn't and he was lured by the prospect of a few spoils from, the British Empire. Another possibility would be facism might not be regarded as being as bad as it is because National Socialism would be regarded as something else and Mussolini might have had a better image perhaps its as well he did join in
 
I saw some numbers in a magazine I'm not sure if I believe, but interesting if true: Number of Junkers-52s lost in the battle for Crete (not necessary if Italy is neutral) = 270.

Number of Ju-52s necessary to supply the trapped German troops at Stalingrad = 300.

Number they actually had on the eastern front at the start of the siege= 30 or 40 (from a different source and old and possibly faulty memory). Most of the Ju-52s had been pulled away to North Africa to help the German buildup in Tunisia in response to Operation Torch, and weren't available for a period of time at the start of the airlift--I don't know how long that period was, but suspect it was at least ten days to get ground support and logistics back--plus not all of the transports used in the Tunisia buildup would have been available to be pulled back into the Stalingrad effort.

As I said, I'm not 100% sure these numbers are all accurate, but if they are, then with a neutral Italy the Germans would have had enough transports to supply Stalingrad, assuming that things went the same way over the period between Crete and Stalingrad. Of course that doesn't take into account other possible bottlenecks in the supply operation. Plus the Germans might well have expended those 270 planes in other ways in the first year and a half of Barbarossa.

Would 300 JU-52s have been enough? It supposedly would have taken 500 tons per day to keep the trapped German armies supplied (I've also heard 600 tons from some sources-the difference may be keeping them alive and fighting versus keeping them mobile). A Ju-52 was theoretically capable of carrying between 3 and 4 tons. The 300 sounds like a reasonable enough figure, though maybe a little tight, given that they would lose some planes to attrition and maintenance requirements and the theoretical lifting capacity wouldn't always be achieved due to odd sizes and shapes of cargo.

The further Soviet offenses after pocketing 6th Army were only possible after 6th Army weakened enough that the Soviets could pull troops away from the encircling forces for other uses. Keep 6th army strong and especially mobile, and the whole complex of the Stalingrad campaign changes.

On the other hand, it probably wouldn't matter in the long run because with Hitler in charge and most of the good German generals out, the Germans were going to lose anyway. Saving the forces at Stalingrad would also reinforce Hitler's worst instincts and probably keep him from giving Manstein freedom of action in 1943. Might actually make the Germans fold faster in the long run, though the huge number of trucks the Germans lost at Stalingrad really made them a lot less mobile, and the victory at Stalingrad did give the Soviets a huge morale boost. It undoubtedly helped the partisan movement a great deal in that if Stalin and company were coming back the people in German occupied territories who were going to have to deal with them again would be extremely wise to be conspicuously on the Soviet side.
 
Given that it all rests on the whims of one man, I'd say it's pretty plausible. Ol' Benny doesn't seem to be quite as monomoniacal as Adolf.

He wanted to recreate the Roman Empire in its fullest, with him as the new Ceasar. He was more of the "delusions-of-grandier" type than effective conquerer like Addie. (And he got his butt handed to him by Eithiopia! HA!)
 

Markus

Banned
He wanted to recreate the Roman Empire in its fullest, with him as the new Ceasar. He was more of the "delusions-of-grandier" type than effective conquerer like Addie. (And he got his butt handed to him by Eithiopia! HA!)

That wasn´t him but PM Francesco Crispi. Benny was bested by the Brits and Greeks.
 
Dale: OTL, Goering raided the training schools - I think that them being depleted more slowly (Goering being Goering, they will be raided of their instructors and aircraft) is more likely than that Stalingrad supply is doable.

OTL, with I'm not sure how many aircraft offhand, they never managed more than half of the supplies needed (290 tons once), it was usually more like a quarter. This ought to say something.
 
Germany would be in a stronger position and would not be sidetracked into Greece and North Africa to support the Italians so that operation Barbarossa would take place 6 weeks earlier and Hitler may have reached Moscow before winter set in. Britain would also not have had a few successes in 1940 which provided morale boosters; Calabria, Taranto, Matapan and Operation Compass. The liberation of occupied Europe would have been via Sardinia and Southern France from French North Africa assuming Russia was still in the game.

In early May Russia's dirt roads were hip-deep in mud. The Germans might very well have invaded then due to poor intelligence (they originally planned to), but their advance would have been slower than OTL. Maybe the early start and slower advance would cancel each other out, but it would change the dynamics of leadership and morale. A slow wade through mud is not conducive to victory disease.
 

Markus

Banned
Dale: OTL, Goering raided the training schools - I think that them being depleted more slowly (Goering being Goering, they will be raided of their instructors and aircraft) is more likely than that Stalingrad supply is doable.

Actually that had been done before. Twice. First when Norway was invaded, than for the attacks on the Netherlands and Belgium.


Originally Posted by Andrew Hudson
Germany would be in a stronger position and would not be sidetracked into Greece and North Africa to support the Italians so that operation Barbarossa would take place 6 weeks earlier and Hitler may have reached Moscow before winter set in.

There is a theory that says Germany could not habe attacked much sooner as some key infrastructure was completed last minute.
 

Cook

Banned
If Mussolini doesn’t align with Hitler there are serious consequences earlier. Mussolini initially opposed the German annexing of Austria. He then abandoned Schuschnigg when it became obvious that France and Britain would do nothing to help.
But what if Mussolini had continued to support his protégé Schuschnigg and the Austrofascist regime?
 
Top