WI/Plausibility Check: Habsburg Defeat In Austrian Succession War?

Hello guys, i'm a newcomer. :)

So, I've taken knowledge that good AH potential with a war PoD requires a fair ammount of balance between both sides fighting the conflict. Therefore, I ask two consequent questions:

-Is it possible for the "Anti-Habsburg Coalition" to win the War of Austrian Succession and, if so, on what strategic conditions?

-If they do win the war, what would be the future geopolitical consequences inside and outside of Europe? Would Maria Theresa be exiled somewhere?
 
Hello guys, i'm a newcomer. :)

So, I've taken knowledge that good AH potential with a war PoD requires a fair ammount of balance between both sides fighting the conflict. Therefore, I ask two consequent questions:

-Is it possible for the "Anti-Habsburg Coalition" to win the War of Austrian Succession and, if so, on what strategic conditions?

-If they do win the war, what would be the future geopolitical consequences inside and outside of Europe? Would Maria Theresa be exiled somewhere?

Welcome.

This is a surprisingly popular PoD. In my opinion, it is the easiest if the anti-Habsburg side acts early, which means a more decisive French government really committed to the idea of kicking the old rivals out of power.

It would also help if the three most powerful claimants (Bavaria, Saxony, Prussia) could agree on a partition scheme beforehand. As it was, they individually tried to gain as much as possible and that gave the Habsburg side the opportunities to push back.

How would the treaty look like?

The Austrian Netherlands should have become French, but with this king, one cannot know.
Further Austria, Tyrol, Austria proper, probably Stayria, Carinthia and Carniola plus Litoral would be a natural addition to Bavaria.
Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia will be split between Brandenburg-Prussia and Saxony in some unpredictable and weird way.
Milan, Parma and Tuscany: difficult to say. France, if the French Court does not want to grab Flanders et al.?
Hungary: MT and her husband will continue to reside and rule here, as no one was seriously interested in fighting there.

Basically, a broad French success. But France will need lots of money to keep the HRE pacified and on its side and the Ottomans alert to prevent ans Habsburg/Hungarian revanchism.
 
For what matters France, I don't think the ruling elites at this moment will go on a real expansion policy.
Remember that Louis XV didn't really push for their interest in 1748 while they could have done so : of course, in the case of a French success in the ASW, it could be different but the mindset for outright expansion doesn't seem to have been really present.

Eventually all depends how the war goes, and which policy Prussia adopted and I think it's likely they'll pursue the "Every man for himself and God for us all" attitude which alienated a lot their allies.
And, really, unless you fix that (maybe with Austria doing better in Silesia, making Frederick II more dependent on France and Bavaria?) I doubt you'd have a decisive conclusion.

Now, admitting a joint Prussian/Bavarian/French victory over Austria/Sardinia/Russia (I don't put Britain, because this is not really a war that could be won over it even if part of the belligerants), what would be stressed by France?

Well, giving the lack of really vital interests it went in war for, you'd probably end with some moderate conditions (Prussia is unreliable, so no post-ASW order, and Britain remains the main problem and Jacobite revolts were to comically inept to be of any use).

Probably some parts of the Netherlands, certainly not the whole of it : maybe sorta return to former boundaries before Utrecht.
Meaning Ypres, Courtrai, Tournai, Charleroi.
Lorraine is already at this point a French puppet so that's out of the way.

Maybe in the case of a clear victory, Luxembourg and/or small parts of Palatinate.

Anything more in the North is at very best calling for an early SYW equivalent, while alienating every possible ally while painting a target on France and shouting very loudly "ATTACK ME!" to George.

As for Italy, the focus would be on weakening Austria as much as possible, probably by favouring Spain (and maybe, pushing it, taking back some alpine places as Pignerol).
Favouring Bavaria is probably what would happen in HRE proper as well, but less so (less reliability).

Colonial demands is a no-no : there's neither enough money to sustain this, and not enough motivation to take on british colonial empire.

Again, the treaty shouldn't alienate possible allies : Prussia would be a shady ally at best, Austria could be still useful against Britain (France having a real european focus as the key of general conflicts) and generally searches a politic of balance to avoid a WSS-like scenario.

EDIT : Almost forgot, welcome on board!
 
Last edited:
Thanks!

Also, i have a few more questions:

-could there be an analogue to the Seven Years' War in the future of such a scenario?

-would a french victory in the war butterfly away at least some pro-enlightenment unrest?
 
-could there be an analogue to the Seven Years' War in the future of such a scenario?
That's a given. The ASW wasn't one of these really decisive wars, even at the beggining of it, and unless Britain really unleashes its forces on it (which is very unlikely), a real confrontation is to come.

Hence why France have to limit radically its ambitions if victorious : they need allies against their main opponent, and giving Prussia is as reliable as a nigerian prince back account, it means being smiley with Austria to at least prevent it being a certain opponent.

would a french victory in the war butterfly away at least some pro-enlightenment unrest?
As far as I know there wasn't pro-enlightment unrest. French Revolution was certainly influenced by, but because you had an intelligentsia that was able to influe on a general strong resentment.

In fact, the XVIIIth is noteworthy in the sense you don't have popular revolts between 1707 and 1788.
I mean you have riots, mostly caused by war taxation or speculation on tariffs, but that's relatively quieter compared to the previous century.

And no one really went into plunder and riot for "more autonomy for the judicial power" or such. Enlightenement is essentially an elite thing, not only for social reasons but because Enlightement figures wanted it as such, being extremely contemptible for what mattered vulgus pecus.

Remember, Enlightement in France is essentially a thing of salons : not that its ideas doesn't come up all the way down (especially thanks to colporteurs, press and new socialisation), but it's not at the core of common political concept.
 
In fact, the XVIIIth is noteworthy in the sense you don't have popular revolts between 1707 and 1788.
I mean you have riots, mostly caused by war taxation or speculation on tariffs, but that's relatively quieter compared to the previous century.

I intend to respond to the rest of this thread later, but for now I'll just address this because it bothers me. To say that Europe was without popular revolts during this time is not true. Throughout Europe there were revolts during this time. But I'll go ahead and discount all the ones that were proto-nationalist like those of the Poles. Instead I'll point to a prime example that actually occurred during the War of the Austrian Successsion. During the war the ruin caused by the Austrian and Sardinian invasion of Genoa caused the peasants to rise up. They quickly dispatched the bewildered Austrians, but didn't stop there. After that the peasants turned on the rich merchant class of Genoa which they saw as decadent and having failed to protect the peasantry. The revolt would end up being extinguished by further actions of the intruding foreign armies. There were some other incidents during the era, but this is perhaps the best as others were less ambitious, more passive, or on smaller scales.
 
To say that Europe was without popular revolts during this time is not true.
I appreaciate your insight and your knowledge on the period, but I was talking specifically about the situation in France at this point, and how the OP would possible change stuff this.
 
I appreaciate your insight and your knowledge on the period, but I was talking specifically about the situation in France at this point, and how the OP would possible change stuff this.

Ah sorry it seems I've been afflicted by the problem with skimming.
 
Top