WI: Pim Fortuyn survives his assassination

Before his assassination in 2002, Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn was getting a lot of attention for his unorthodox views combining promotion of Dutch liberalism with strong criticism of multiculturalism and immigration. As an openly gay ex-Marxist, Fortuyn was a strong supporter of a progressive society in the Netherlands, promoting gay rights, gender equality, liberal drug laws, the welfare state, and so forth.

However, he was a strong critic of multiculturalism and immigration throughout Europe. He particularly wanted to restrict Muslim immigration and put greater pressure on Dutch Muslim citizens to conform to Dutch culture; he argued that Muslims were refusing to sufficiently adapt to Dutch ways and were holding onto a "backward" culture that was sexist, homophobic, and undermined the societies that they lived in. This unorthodox combination of ideas caused a lot of debate throughout Europe, but was also attracting some support.

If Pim Fortuyn had not died, would he have continued to gain support? Would his ideas have become widespread throughout Europe, and affected the continent's policies on immigration and how to deal with Muslim citizens?
 
He'd very likely get lionised by a small segment of the extreme right, but quickly find that while electioneering is suited to extravagant, extroverted and flamboyant people, actual government work is hard, slow, boring, and usually unsatisfying to that type. In the medium term, he is most likely to turn into a political has-been with angry memoirs and a spate of WI-Fortuyn as PM threads on his anniversaries. He may well be remembered for some populist Islamophobic laws that later history books will view with faint dismay and bemused incomprehension.
 
So getting assassinated was the best thing to happen to him (well, minus the whole part about dying, obviously), since instead of ending up as a bitter political has-been he instead became a "martyr to the cause"?
 
His death paved the way for all sorts of anti-immigration politicians to gain support. Mostly liberals like Rita Verdonk and Geert Wilders(both split from the VVD like Fortuyn) who started their own party that focused more on nationalism and anti-islam(and populism in my opinion).

Without his death they would probably stay in the VVD and encourage a coalition with Fortuyns party. More populism and nationalism within the VVD would be the results, maybe even anti-islamism. Fortuyns policies stirred some things up, but i doubt he would have gotten the same results as his party got from the general elections after his death. The reason for the 2002 win for his party was his death, and during their time as second party in the coalition they screwed everything up that could be screwed up. Probably with Pim still alive they would have less votes, and not be included in the coalition. Perhaps they would be joining a triple coalition, or create a minority government, like we have now.

This of course, like it does now would have great influence on the Dutch Muslims and immigrants. I wouldn't like it any better anyway.
 
If he survived he could have conceivably consolidated his power.
Just getting shot should be sufficient to still get a lot of pity votes he got from dying OTL.
He would've been well represented when the Islam phobia really took off, which could mean a lot of anti-Islam votes that went to the right parties could have ended up with him. And if handled right the financial crisis could have made the LPF one of the biggest parties in the Second chamber (Congress).
It would have been awesome! He was basically a progressive socialist who happened to have a thing against immigration and Muslims. His support base right now would be massive.

MP Pimmie!
pim_fortuyn.jpg
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
His death paved the way for all sorts of anti-immigration politicians to gain support. Mostly liberals like Rita Verdonk and Geert Wilders(both split from the VVD like Fortuyn) who started their own party that focused more on nationalism and anti-islam(and populism in my opinion).

Fortuyn was never part of the VVD, Verdonk and (certainly Wilders) were never liberals but conservatives. IF Verdonk and Wilders leave the VVD they will either try to be part of the LPF or will be marginalised by the LPF and Fortuyns charisma. Look what happened with LN and other splinters. There just isn't that much space in the Populist side of the spectrum.

Without his death they would probably stay in the VVD and encourage a coalition with Fortuyns party. More populism and nationalism within the VVD would be the results, maybe even anti-islamism.

I'm not sure. The death of Fortuyn made the populist electorate much more fluid then it would have been if Fortuyn had survived. I'm not sure if the VVD goes towards populism and I'm undecided over Verdonk and Wilders leaving. Rutte has shown himself to be up to the task.

Fortuyns policies stirred some things up, but i doubt he would have gotten the same results as his party got from the general elections after his death. The reason for the 2002 win for his party was his death, and during their time as second party in the coalition they screwed everything up that could be screwed up. Probably with Pim still alive they would have less votes, and not be included in the coalition. Perhaps they would be joining a triple coalition, or create a minority government, like we have now.

I agree that the LPF would have won less seats but it would be earth-shattering nonetheless. They will still most probably be part of the government and the government will still fall pretty soon but maybe with less infighting at the LPF and more fights between Fortuyn and his coalition-partners.

This of course, like it does now would have great influence on the Dutch Muslims and immigrants. I wouldn't like it any better anyway.

Not sure, no death of Fortuyn could butterfly away the death of Van Gogh. It's is also vital to recognize that Fortuyn is totally unlike Geert Wilders. Geert Wilders sees Islam and Muslims as a fundamental problem and the cause of many problems in the Netherlands. Geert Wilders would most probably want to kick all muslims out, Fortuyn once said: "They are our people, our problem and WE will solve it." The PVV (of Wilders) is a bit of a one-issue party and one of the conservative parties right now, the LPF was much more reform party.
 
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