WI: Piłsudski's faction represents the Poles in peace negotiations?

[Hashoosh]

Basically, as the title suggests, what would happen if Piłsudski and his supporters (mainly Poles in the East) were the prime representatives for Poland at the Treaty of Riga with the RSFSR? There seems to be evidence that the Soviets would have conceded more territory than they did, but the Polish National Democrats did not want the large non-Polish populations to the East.

How would this affect the Baltic states? If Piłsudski prevails at the peace negotiations, would Ukraine be included in the umbrella of 'Intermarium'? How much would Lenin and the Bolsheviks be willing to concede? As they were in a truly tenuous position domestically with the Kronstadt rebellion on the horizon and massive unrest caused by War Communism, is it possible the borders of the Brest-Litovsk Treaty become the Soviet 1920's and 30's borders?

 

[clifton]

Basically, as the title suggests, what would happen if Piłsudski and his supporters (mainly Poles in the East) were the prime representatives for Poland at the Treaty of Riga with the RSFSR? There seems to be evidence that the Soviets would have conceded more territory than they did, but the Polish National Democrats did not want the large non-Polish populations to the East.

How would this affect the Baltic states? If Piłsudski prevails at the peace negotiations, would Ukraine be included in the umbrella of 'Intermarium'? How much would Lenin and the Bolsheviks be willing to concede? As they were in a truly tenuous position domestically with the Kronstadt rebellion on the horizon and massive unrest caused by War Communism, is it possible the borders of the Brest-Litovsk Treaty become the Soviet 1920's and 30's borders?

I don't think Brest-Litovsk borders are possible. But it's possible that they might gain more of Belorussia and Western-Ukraine. Minsk might be gained, however I don't think they will be able to gain Kiev in the negotiations.

 

[Jones777]

Basically, as the title suggests, what would happen if Piłsudski and his supporters (mainly Poles in the East) were the prime representatives for Poland at the Treaty of Riga with the RSFSR?

You have to change elections results. ND won elections and in Poland parliament is deciding about peace.

How much would Lenin and the Bolsheviks be willing to concede? As they were in a truly tenuous position domestically with the Kronstadt rebellion on the horizon and massive unrest caused by War Communism, is it possible the borders of the Brest-Litovsk Treaty become the Soviet 1920's and 30's borders?

As i good remember pre 1793 borders were maximum.

 

[Hashoosh]

I don't think Brest-Litovsk borders are possible. But it's possible that they might gain more of Belorussia and Western-Ukraine. Minsk might be gained, however I don't think they will be able to gain Kiev in the negotiations.

The Bolshies were willing to give up more than they did iOTL, IIRC Minsk was possible but the main problem was that the National Democrats didn't want the non-Polish populations to reach more than 25%.

You have to change elections results. ND won elections and in Poland parliament is deciding about peace.

Exactly, what I'm proposing is basically that somehow Pilsudski and the Federalists win the elections. They could do this by having more people in the East taking part, or by some sort of scandal rocking the NDs.

 

[Zaius]

I'll quote myself from another thread.

Once efforts to make Lithuania join willingly and to set up a Ukrainian state in Kiev failed, Piłsudski recognized that the idea of federalism had failed. I have not heard of any evidence showing that Piłsudski protested against the Riga settlement, and knowing Piłsudski he would have protested loudly. Meanwhile testimonies indicate that he actually agreed with the broad outline. He was for limiting tensions with the USSR, which Minsk or a rump Ukraine would obviously exacerbrate. So Grabski or not, the treaty will closely resemble OTL.

Grabski was not an exception, or some kind of master saboteur. At that point neither the National Democrats nor Piłsudski and friends wanted more then Poland ended up getting, and with those two factions in agreement there was absolutely zero chance of stopping them.

 

[Deleted member 9338]

I am wondering how much Lenin was willing to give up in 1917, only planning to take it back when the crises had passed.

 

[Blackfox5]

Based on what I have read, Poland could easily have gotten all or most of modern Belarus (including Minsk) during negotiations. I have not read anything to indicate Poland would have gotten most of the Ukraine, but it's possible they could have gotten most of the Ukrainian territory they lost with the Second Partition of Poland in 1793 (which excluded Kiev). So I think the Poland of 1793 could have been restored within rough borders.

If so, the idea was that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania would have been restored within three cantons. The first around Vilnius which would have been Lithuanian, but included the Polish majority in Vilnius. The second around Minsk (Belarus-Lithuania for ethnic Belarussians). The third would involve diplomatic negotiations with Lithuania (capital Kaunas) to incorporate it into Poland. Presumably most of the Ukrainian territory would have become a fourth ethnic canton.

With two parts of the old Grand Duchy of Lithuania in their possession, Poland would have turned their attention to Lithuania as it stood in 1920. Negotiations would have been heated. I think there would several possibilities - 1) Lithuania remaining outside of Poland, 2) Lithuania being forcibly incorporated into Poland, 3) Lithuania voluntarily agreeing to be part of Poland with varying scenarios of autonomy and perhaps special status compared to the territories Poland already controlled. I could see any of them happening.

In any case, this new Polish state would be much better economically and defensible than OTL's Poland. Control of Minsk and additional railroad lines would have aided economic development of Poland's eastern territories. Poland would also have some nice north-south flowing rivers to act as a defensive border.

Both Belarusian and Ukrainian nationalism would have been incubated within their cantons. Since the object of the Polish government would not have been to Polonize those regions, it might be possible to accommodate the nationalists of those ethnic groups within citizenship of the federated Polish state.

I also think Poland would have been able to make strong arrangements with the Baltic States (Latvia and Estonia; even Lithuania if it remained outside) on their mutual defense and economic cooperation. Some kind of defensive alliance and customs union might be possible.

Such a large Polish state would be a much harder target for Nazi Germany. Even if the Nazis still thought they would win, it would take longer and without a fast conquest, they would not imagine an easy fait accompli. Even in a potential division of Poland with the Soviets, Moscow would be more reluctant since they could expect more resistance then IOTL. Then again, with a much larger Poland incorporating Lithuania somehow that gave them access to the sea, the Polish government might be willing to compromise with Hitler on the Polish corridor in exchange for continued non-aggression pact. Easy predictions after 1938 are hard to come by.

 

[rob in cal]

I wonder if the final borders, if Poland had tried for more territory, would have been similar to the front lines when the cease fire was called. I believe Polish troops had occupied Minsk and were a bit east of there by that time.