WI: Phocas killed during the Balkan Campaigns

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Deleted member 67076

So what if, During Maurice's Balkan Campaigns, Phocas is killed while he's still a grunt and never gets the chance to conduct his coup and kill Maurice. What does this mean for the Byzantine Empire? How does this effect relations with Sassanid Persia?
 
So what if, During Maurice's Balkan Campaigns, Phocas is killed while he's still a grunt and never gets the chance to conduct his coup and kill Maurice. What does this mean for the Byzantine Empire? How does this effect relations with Sassanid Persia?

Soverihn

I don't know the area in detail but believe Maurice was deeply unpopular because of his attempt to save money and especially with the army having them winter north of the Danube in barbarian territory. Hence I think the most likely thing is that someone else leads a mutiny/rebellion. This could mean it fails, or at least that some of Maurice's family escape. Alternatively how would the different 'new emperor' handle the problems the empire faced. Almost certainly there would be a Sassanid invasion but possibly the alternative man would be a better ruler or at least gain more loyalty from the eastern legions?

There is a chance that Maurice survives, in which case you could have big butterflies. Without the revolt you might well have seen the Avars seriously defeated and a lot of the Slavic incursions across the Danube reduced or prevented. Also probably either no great war with Persia or one that the legions can handle probably fairly simply. This means that the eastern empire would be a hell of a lot better off going into the 7thC. Presuming that some sort of Arabic explosion occurs its likely to face much tougher opposition in the west and probably in the east.

Steve
 
As stevep has already stated, the crisis was bound to arise with or without Phocas. Peter, Maurice’s brother and the commander of the Danube armies at the time of the revolt, was an incompetent wreck, unable to defuse the situation (Priscus, who’d go on to become Phocas’ Comes Excubitorum, did quell a revolt by disobeying the exact same order to winter across the river in 593.) Now, once the rebels marched on Constantinople they publically proclaimed their willingness to have Theodosius (Maurice’s son) or Germanus (Theodosius’ father in law) be crowned in Maurice’s stead. But the Emperor mistrusting his son had him flogged, and Germanus choose to hide in Hagia Sophia. Then the situation spun out of control, and led to OTL events.

What could happen is that Maurice gives the throne up willingly to Theodosius. Problem here is, that Theodosius would be in a tough spot, and would have to make large concessions to the undisciplined troops. Same would apply to Germanus. This could certainly relieve some pressure on the Avars, as the campaign would be called off, and not continued until April-May 603; if that. Whether or not the offensive is renewed the following year, the Avars would be badly hurt, and unable to cause any trouble for a while, unless the Balkan armies are rotated to the East.

On the eastern front, Khosrau might grow bold and decide to strike during the turmoil. His casus belli would have much less legitimacy in this case, and Roman resistance might stiffen (a really messed up scenario could have Maurice calling on Khosrau to overthrow Theodosius…) Should Maurice go peacefully into retirement, the Empire would not undergo a civil war, such as it did IOTL between Phocas and Heraclius; as a result, the Great War might just become another of the many on and off engagements between the two powers, and by default leaving them in a stronger position by the time the Arabs, if Islam still develops, push north.
 
As stevep has already stated, the crisis was bound to arise with or without Phocas. Peter, Maurice’s brother and the commander of the Danube armies at the time of the revolt, was an incompetent wreck, unable to defuse the situation (Priscus, who’d go on to become Phocas’ Comes Excubitorum, did quell a revolt by disobeying the exact same order to winter across the river in 593.) Now, once the rebels marched on Constantinople they publically proclaimed their willingness to have Theodosius (Maurice’s son) or Germanus (Theodosius’ father in law) be crowned in Maurice’s stead. But the Emperor mistrusting his son had him flogged, and Germanus choose to hide in Hagia Sophia. Then the situation spun out of control, and led to OTL events.

What could happen is that Maurice gives the throne up willingly to Theodosius. Problem here is, that Theodosius would be in a tough spot, and would have to make large concessions to the undisciplined troops. Same would apply to Germanus. This could certainly relieve some pressure on the Avars, as the campaign would be called off, and not continued until April-May 603; if that. Whether or not the offensive is renewed the following year, the Avars would be badly hurt, and unable to cause any trouble for a while, unless the Balkan armies are rotated to the East.

On the eastern front, Khosrau might grow bold and decide to strike during the turmoil. His casus belli would have much less legitimacy in this case, and Roman resistance might stiffen (a really messed up scenario could have Maurice calling on Khosrau to overthrow Theodosius…) Should Maurice go peacefully into retirement, the Empire would not undergo a civil war, such as it did IOTL between Phocas and Heraclius; as a result, the Great War might just become another of the many on and off engagements between the two powers, and by default leaving them in a stronger position by the time the Arabs, if Islam still develops, push north.

Pururauka

Fascinating. I never realised that Maurice had the chance to abdicate in favour of a member of his family. Everything I had read seemed to say Phocas was in control and determined to kill the lot [as he did OTL] and claim the throne for himself. Abdication might have been a better option for the empire, and certainly for his family, than OTL. Given how badly Maurice treated Theodosius do you know why Phocas and the rebels slaughtered the lot?

Steve
 
Pururauka

Fascinating. I never realised that Maurice had the chance to abdicate in favour of a member of his family. Everything I had read seemed to say Phocas was in control and determined to kill the lot [as he did OTL] and claim the throne for himself. Abdication might have been a better option for the empire, and certainly for his family, than OTL. Given how badly Maurice treated Theodosius do you know why Phocas and the rebels slaughtered the lot?

Steve
Theodosius wouldn't pass up the chance if he was so inclined, to play the dutiful son avenging his murdered father if he had the chance.
 
Theodosius becomes Emperor with the support of Phocas, Maurice retires, and Khusrau invades on pretext of avenging his "father" against the treachery of his "false son". What's not to love about this messed up scenario? :D

I think Khusrau is quite likely to invade soon after Maurice's death, whatever the excuse is.
 
Theodosius becomes Emperor with the support of Phocas, Maurice retires, and Khusrau invades on pretext of avenging his "father" against the treachery of his "false son". What's not to love about this messed up scenario? :D

I think Khusrau is quite likely to invade soon after Maurice's death, whatever the excuse is.

Basileus Giorgios

The thing is without an obvious usurper on the throne would the legions in the east have been as unwilling to fight the Persians? I think this was one of the key factors in the Persian success. Given that its more clearly a grab for power by Khusrau and that the lands he occupies 1st [and loots] will be the ones their based in I think its more likely the legions will give him a very warm welcome.

Steve
 
Basileus Giorgios

The thing is without an obvious usurper on the throne would the legions in the east have been as unwilling to fight the Persians? I think this was one of the key factors in the Persian success. Given that its more clearly a grab for power by Khusrau and that the lands he occupies 1st [and loots] will be the ones their based in I think its more likely the legions will give him a very warm welcome.

Steve

Fair point.

One of the big reasons for the rapid collapse of the Eastern frontier was that Khusrau had with him a young man claiming to be Theodosius, who was certainly plausible enough to stop some of the main generals on the front from fighting against him. There's a large part of me that suspects that this young man was the real deal, who was quietly disposed of by the Iranians once the Roman defences were broken.
 
Pururauka

Fascinating. I never realised that Maurice had the chance to abdicate in favour of a member of his family. Everything I had read seemed to say Phocas was in control and determined to kill the lot [as he did OTL] and claim the throne for himself. Abdication might have been a better option for the empire, and certainly for his family, than OTL. Given how badly Maurice treated Theodosius do you know why Phocas and the rebels slaughtered the lot?

Steve
Maurice seems to have been in a state of disbelief at how quickly the situation was deteriorating. He tried to enlist the support of the demes to defend the capital, which seemed to work initially, but soon after, the Greens turned on him and riots broke out all over The City. Perhaps with a remnant of paternal love, Maurice took Theodosius, along with the rest of his family, and fled to Bithynia. With the Emperor gone, Germanus made his bid, and was turned down by the populace. By this point, it had become known who was leading the revolting armies, so the masses called on Phocas to deliver them from Maurice’s parsimoniousness.

With one of the candidates absent, and the other rejected, Phocas saw no problem in taking the purple. The problem with having Theodosius, or Maurice for that matter, still at large would then have been obvious. Phocas’ legitimacy as Emperor might be openly called into question should any eligible member of the Imperial family remain alive. That’s why Maurice and all of his sons were put to death at the same time.
Theodosius wouldn't pass up the chance if he was so inclined, to play the dutiful son avenging his murdered father if he had the chance.
You know it, Oh faithful reader! ;)
Theodosius becomes Emperor with the support of Phocas, Maurice retires, and Khusrau invades on pretext of avenging his "father" against the treachery of his "false son". What's not to love about this messed up scenario? :D

You just don't like that boi, do you? :p
 
Maurice seems to have been in a state of disbelief at how quickly the situation was deteriorating. He tried to enlist the support of the demes to defend the capital, which seemed to work initially, but soon after, the Greens turned on him and riots broke out all over The City. Perhaps with a remnant of paternal love, Maurice took Theodosius, along with the rest of his family, and fled to Bithynia. With the Emperor gone, Germanus made his bid, and was turned down by the populace. By this point, it had become known who was leading the revolting armies, so the masses called on Phocas to deliver them from Maurice’s parsimoniousness.

With one of the candidates absent, and the other rejected, Phocas saw no problem in taking the purple. The problem with having Theodosius, or Maurice for that matter, still at large would then have been obvious. Phocas’ legitimacy as Emperor might be openly called into question should any eligible member of the Imperial family remain alive. That’s why Maurice and all of his sons were put to death at the same time.

Pururauka

Thanks. That explains things. As you say once he's emperor he can't afford to leave any of Maurice's family alive. [Unless there was possibly a suitable female member to marry. Although the unpopularity of Maurice might counter that].

Steve
 
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