WI Philip IV of Spain lives longer

Melvin Spivak

How likely is he to have another son? If he does, as Charles’ development issues become more apparent, will he be passed over in the line of succession?
 

Kurt_Steiner

Melvin Spivak said:
How likely is he to have another son? If he does, as Charles’ development issues become more apparent, will he be passed over in the line of succession?
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Hardly possible. He was 60 when he died.

If we keep in mind what happened with Don Carlos, there may be no Carlos III. The crown may go to Juan José de Austria, but he died in 1679 without a male son.
 

Velasco

King Philip IV's survival butterflies away Don Juan José's own death (possibly by poison) in 1679. This gives both Philip and Juan time to produce more heirs, with the possibility of Juan being legitimized and married into the family (an archduchess or German princess with Hapsburg blood of her own, maybe?).
 

Vitruvius

Could he have another son? Sure, Mariana was only 31 when he died so she's certainly going to be able to have children for a few more years. Bigger question is whether another son would be healthier. Possible but not guaranteed.

As to the Spanish Empire. If Philip lives the Portuguese Restoration war is prolonged as he was NEVER going to recognized the Braganzas. The war is not winnable to so its a waste of Spanish resources. And the longer it goes on the longer someone else, like England or France gets involved. If Philip has another son and bumps Maria Theresa further down the succession line Louis probably has incentive to go back to war before Philip dies.

A shorter regency for Carlos, or no regency helps Spain a little but I don't know that Philip really accomplishes much with that time. As I said he continues the war in Portugal and probably doesn't do much to reform Spain or advance economic recovery. So I don't think it would greatly benefit Spain.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
living longer isn't ASB. 20 years is pushing it, but not impossible.

without more offspring, Spain remains more stable as long as he's capable. Once he's invalid, or dead, the same issues plague Spain as OTL. Aside from Portugal, which may cause butterflies, not much difference.

IF he lives long enough to pump out more kids, a lot changes. He lived 4 years after Carlos II was born, but no more kids. Toward the end of his life, it was becoming obvious that CII was severely handicapped. Maybe Philip climbs into the saddle to produce more heirs. Hereditary issues are a concern, but I don't think a second bewitched one is automatic. A son absolutely is a game changer. He might jump CII in line of succession (Carlos III's eldest son was bumped for being infirm), but even if not, he succeeds CII. For butterflies, see one of the many "WI CII had offspring?" threads. Same effect. A daughter (no more sons) would be interesting. She would be in line for the throne, as no salic law, yet. She probably has a harder time jumping CII, but she might be kept around as a spare. Certainly, her marriage is going to be of world interest. I wonder who it would be. The only Bourbon, or Habsburg I could find around the same age was Louis, Grand Dauphin, and that isn't happening. Some no name/lesser house who would come to Spain as consort?
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

unprincipled peter said:
Certainly, her marriage is going to be of world interest. I wonder who it would be. The only Bourbon, or Habsburg I could find around the same age was Louis, Grand Dauphin, and that isn't happening
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I think that could actually happen. Just have more siblings survive, so that she isn't the heiress yet...
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
ordinarylittleme said:
I think that could actually happen. Just have more siblings survive, so that she isn't the heiress yet...
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This could go a couple of ways, which I think would be intriguing:
Carlos II Sister as the direct heir instead of CII, or obvious heir to CII. The world is going to maneuver and wrestle to provide a husband.

Additional male Brother who is the heir, and looks like a healthy guy. Marriage of Sister is still going to be important, but not as much as above. Off she goes to some foreign country, then Brother and King Carlos II die. Louis Grand Dauphin would be a candidate, but would they dare make such a match knowing only the bewitched and Brother stand between Sister and the crown? Imagine if CII and Bro die before Dauphin/Sister can have offspring!!

Plain old Brother taking the throne is ho hum :closedtongue:


Additionally, I remembered that having a viable heir may influence France's behavior in at least one of their War of Devolution or Dutch War. Louis XIV backed off on one when everyone thought CII was about to die. Ditto for 9 Y W
 

Santo Nombre

unprincipled peter said:
The only Bourbon, or Habsburg I could find around the same age was Louis, Grand Dauphin, and that isn't happening. Some no name/lesser house who would come to Spain as consort?
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If Philip IV lives, say, 15 years more, until 1680, and has another daughter around 1665-1668 a possible candidate is:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Louis_Sobieski born 1669
If the daughter is born in 1679-1681, possible candidates are:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_I,_Holy_Roman_Emperor born 1678 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis,_Duke_of_Burgundy born 1682
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_V_of_Portugal born 1689 (big age difference but allows for another Iberian reunification, now under Portugal)
 

Vitruvius

Ugh, the Dauphin marrying a younger daughter of Philip IV and Mariana might not end well. All that inbreeding is going to catch up with the Bourbons. Louis XIV and Maria Theresa were double first cousins and now their son, the Dauphin, is going to marry an Infanta whose parents (Philip and Mariana) are uncle and niece and who is herself the Dauphin's aunt, or I guess half-aunt. That's really not much better than Leopold and Margaret Theresa.
 

Torbald

ordinarylittleme said:
Hardly the same as Don Carlos was fine before he suffered head trauma
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AFAIK Don Carlos had a lifelong penchant for cruelty as well as other signs of mental instability, long before his head trauma. I've also heard that his mother, Maria Manuela, suffered from similar afflictions before her death in childbirth.
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Torbald said:
AFAIK Don Carlos had a lifelong penchant for cruelty as well as other signs of mental instability, long before his head trauma. I've also heard that his mother, Maria Manuela, suffered from similar afflictions before her death in childbirth.
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Maria Manuela too? Where did you hear that one from?
 

Kellan Sullivan

unprincipled peter said:
living longer isn't ASB. 20 years is pushing it, but not impossible.

without more offspring, Spain remains more stable as long as he's capable. Once he's invalid, or dead, the same issues plague Spain as OTL. Aside from Portugal, which may cause butterflies, not much difference.

IF he lives long enough to pump out more kids, a lot changes. He lived 4 years after Carlos II was born, but no more kids. Toward the end of his life, it was becoming obvious that CII was severely handicapped. Maybe Philip climbs into the saddle to produce more heirs. Hereditary issues are a concern, but I don't think a second bewitched one is automatic. A son absolutely is a game changer. He might jump CII in line of succession (Carlos III's eldest son was bumped for being infirm), but even if not, he succeeds CII. For butterflies, see one of the many "WI CII had offspring?" threads. Same effect. A daughter (no more sons) would be interesting. She would be in line for the throne, as no salic law, yet. She probably has a harder time jumping CII, but she might be kept around as a spare. Certainly, her marriage is going to be of world interest. I wonder who it would be. The only Bourbon, or Habsburg I could find around the same age was Louis, Grand Dauphin, and that isn't happening. Some no name/lesser house who would come to Spain as consort?
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What about a match with someone like Max II Emanuel, Victor Amadeus of Savoy or Ferdinando de Medici if France isn't interested?

And France would be interested in a Spanish match. After all, Anne of Austria told Felipe IV at the wedding ceremony of Louis XIV-Maria Teresa that "I'd rather a son for my son than a bride for my nephew". Plus, MT had Felipe Prospero and Carlos II in front of her at the time of the match. A solitary half-sister is not necessarily a deterrent
 
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