WI Philip III of Spain had died childless

Just an idea I had: what would happen to Spain if Philip III had died young, after his coronation in 1598, but before his marriage to Margaret of Austria in 1599? His heir would be his sister Isabella Clara, sovereign of the Spanish Netherlands. But IOTL she never gave birth to a surviving baby, and we can assume she wouldn't do it ITTL also. So the next in line would the Victor Amadeus I, Duke of Savoy, son of her sister Catherine Michelle.

So, how could be the reign of Isabella? And assuming she still can't have children, how could be Spain under the House of Savoy instead of the Habsburgs?
 
well then you get rid of the war of spanish sucession also you might see spain remain somewhat more stable which in turns means more wealth....so they might not be as much of a push over country that they were in otl
 
well then you get rid of the war of spanish sucession also you might see spain remain somewhat more stable which in turns means more wealth....so they might not be as much of a push over country that they were in otl

Well, the War of the Spanish Succession happened much later, and it would already be butterflied by the POD anyway.

Thinking a bit more about it, Isabella only died in 1633, and we can assume that she would possibly live as long as IOTL. So Spain would be more than 30 years under the rule of a barren queen, and her heir would be an Italian duke. Also, if Victor Amadeus is the heir of the Spanish throne, then Savoy would also be Spanish. It would double the area of Northern Italy controlled by Spain, and possibly cause some problems with France (the French king would certainly not like the idea of have all his Southern borders blocked by Spanish lands).

Also, it would mean that she and her husband Albert would not be in the Spanish Netherlands in this period. Could it be good news to the Dutch?
 
Well, the War of the Spanish Succession happened much later, and it would already be butterflied by the POD anyway.

Thinking a bit more about it, Isabella only died in 1633, and we can assume that she would possibly live as long as IOTL. So Spain would be more than 30 years under the rule of a barren queen, and her heir would be an Italian duke. Also, if Victor Amadeus is the heir of the Spanish throne, then Savoy would also be Spanish. It would double the area of Northern Italy controlled by Spain, and possibly cause some problems with France (the French king would certainly not like the idea of have all his Southern borders blocked by Spanish lands).

Quick point. Victor Amadeus was not the heir to Savoy until 1605, when his older brother died. His older brother was 19 when he died, and there is nothing about him in wikipedia, so I'm going to go ahead and assume that was sickly and the butterflies wouldn't affect his fate.

I bet that once she realizes that she's going to be barren, Victor Amadeus starts getting associated with her rule. The all-knowing Wikipedia actually states that he was largely raised in the Spanish court, which will definitely make his ascension to the Spanish throne at least easier on the domestic front.

France's Italian border and Spanish borders wouldn't be the only ones blocked, remember that the Burgundian Inheritance (which Isabella was in charge of) pretty much completes the Spanish encirclement of France.

Also, it would mean that she and her husband Albert would not be in the Spanish Netherlands in this period. Could it be good news to the Dutch?

Victor Amadeus didn't become the Duke of Savoy until 1630, and he wouldn't become the King of Spain until 1633 (if both live to their OTL lives). So that leaves about 20 years that he could serve as a ruler for the extensive Hapsburg domains. Now iOTL it looks like he was a pretty good military commander- he beat a Spanish army in 1637 and was called the "Lion of Susa". I therefore nominate Victor Amadeus (once he's old enough- say 21) to become the Governor of the Spanish Netherlands.

It seems Victor's father had a falling out with the Spanish that I don't think would happen OTL. I would expect that Isabella II would be the one arranging the Prince of Asturias' marriage.
 

Susano

Banned
Somehow I cant see teh Austrian Habsburgs liking this, and under strict application of Salic Law they would be the heirs. Now, Salic law wasnt strictly enforced in either Spain or Germany, but it would give them enough of a claim to start a war if they think themselves strong enough. Emperor at this time was... oh, Rudolph II. Ah, hes depressive and busy fighting his brother Matthias, but then again Matthias was also Rudolphs heir, and hence also heir to the Habsburg claim to Spain... might be the two come to an understanding and Austria goes to war.

France would then be in an odd position. It doesnt want a Spanish bloc in North Italy, but it also doesnt want Habsburg encirclement. However, it would overall be a good position, as it can simply make demans on a side of its choice to enter the war...
 
Somehow I cant see teh Austrian Habsburgs liking this, and under strict application of Salic Law they would be the heirs. Now, Salic law wasnt strictly enforced in either Spain or Germany, but it would give them enough of a claim to start a war if they think themselves strong enough. Emperor at this time was... oh, Rudolph II. Ah, hes depressive and busy fighting his brother Matthias, but then again Matthias was also Rudolphs heir, and hence also heir to the Habsburg claim to Spain... might be the two come to an understanding and Austria goes to war.

France would then be in an odd position. It doesnt want a Spanish bloc in North Italy, but it also doesnt want Habsburg encirclement. However, it would overall be a good position, as it can simply make demans on a side of its choice to enter the war...

Do you think that the Austrian Hapsburg would be contesting the ascension of Isabella as Isabella II, or Victor Amadeus' position as the Prince of Asturias?

I think that the French fears of encirclement and the potential Austrian Hapsburg challenge could end up having the same solution. The Spanish Netherlands is a territory that the French really, REALLY want. So I think that Isabella might be willing to deal the S. Netherlands to the French in return for support against the Austrians (if it comes to war). In the case of Victor Amadeus, he would probably be more willing to get rid of the S. Netherlands than Savoy.

So I see a Franco-Spanish alliance against the Austrian Hapsburg in either case. The Spanish Netherlands is a valuable bargaining chip that will probably guarantee a French alliance with Spain in the case of war with the Austrians.
 

Susano

Banned
The legal claim of the Habsburgs would be that Isabella could not ascend the throne due to Salic Law, though the real reason they would oppose that would be that the heir would be a non-Habsburg. Still, due to the legal background if they protest they must protest at Isabellas ascenion. Its possible I guess that Isabella comes to an arrangment with her Austrian cousins, by a treaty stating that her heir must be a Habsburg or somesuch. However, I can see her preferring her nephew, so its also well possible it does not come to such an arrangment.

It is true France wants the Southern Netherlands, but both sides could offer it, Isabella directly and Austria as spoil of war. Its safer for France of course if its directly transferred from Isabella, but OTOH, that means France would be forced to allow the Spanish bloc in North Italy to form. Hence it might be more probable that France sides with Austria, to gain the Southern Netherlands that way, and and keep Northern Italy disunited.

Of course, on the yet other hand that means France would be forced to allow a Habsburg encirclement. On the fourth hand, thozgh ( :p ), since Rudolph and Matthias, ah, dont like each other, theyll probably split Austria and Spain betwene them anyways, so its not that large of a problem for France.
 
The legal claim of the Habsburgs would be that Isabella could not ascend the throne due to Salic Law, though the real reason they would oppose that would be that the heir would be a non-Habsburg. Still, due to the legal background if they protest they must protest at Isabellas ascenion. Its possible I guess that Isabella comes to an arrangment with her Austrian cousins, by a treaty stating that her heir must be a Habsburg or somesuch. However, I can see her preferring her nephew, so its also well possible it does not come to such an arrangment.

I don't really see what Rudolph could DO about something like this. His brother is the King of Spain, so a Hapsburg is the King of Spain, its just that the likelyhood of that continuing beyond Isabella's death is small.

Basically, although I can see mean, nasty letter being exchanged between Isabella and Rudolph, I don't see Rudolph attempting to make his point via force. The French are the far larger threat.

Actually, the Spanish Netherlands could be useful in this regard: Isabella could give the territory to Rudolph, as part of the agreement with him recognizing Isabella as the Queen of Spain and Victor as her heir, with the caveat that if Victor's line (male line maybe?) died out, the Austrian Hapsburg would inherit (a treaty that would be dead letter once Victor became King, but whatever).

How would adding Savoy to the Spanish possessions in Italy change things?
 

Susano

Banned
Well, the French still have hopes o fgaining Milan. If Milan and Savoy are united, that chance becoems rather small.

And, uh, Philipp III was Rudolphs cousin. And knowing habsburg intramarriage probably also related in other ways, but no brother. What Rudolph could do is to start a war - of course, only if he can get the support of France. WHich is possible.
 
Well, the French still have hopes o fgaining Milan. If Milan and Savoy are united, that chance becoems rather small.

And, uh, Philipp III was Rudolphs cousin. And knowing habsburg intramarriage probably also related in other ways, but no brother. What Rudolph could do is to start a war - of course, only if he can get the support of France. WHich is possible.

Isabella's husband was an Archduke of Austria, and, I thought, Rudolph's brother.
 

Susano

Banned
Isabella's husband was an Archduke of Austria, and, I thought, Rudolph's brother.

Oh, right, true. Well, how much of a King (as opposed to Prince Consort) hed be is an open question, though. I guess both is possible. More importantly, though, in 1598 Isabella is already 32. Not too old to get children, but the chances were that she wouldnt get any anymore (which proved to be true). And considering teh infighting between Rudolph and Matthias I dont think theyd care overly much for Albrecht...
 
I think speaking about the Spanish or the southern Netherlands is a bit of a anachronism in those days. Well, obviously there was a Netherlands and a southern part of it and a Spanish part of it, but all of it (all of it except basicly the Walloon areas, who were still catholic and sort of happy with the Spanish) was rebelling against the Spanish. This is almost 50 years before the peace of Munster. The Spanish had not accepted that the Netherlands would become indepent, so they would still consider all of it Spanish.
Also I am not certain of France would want a protestant country in open rebellion against their rulers, certainly not with the Hugenots back home.
The Dutch could very much profit from any unrest in Spain, possibly (re)conquering much of the Netherlands that was still Spanish, maybe even force a peace treaty with Spain including a border more to the south than in the current Netherlands
 
I think speaking about the Spanish or the southern Netherlands is a bit of a anachronism in those days. Well, obviously there was a Netherlands and a southern part of it and a Spanish part of it, but all of it (all of it except basicly the Walloon areas, who were still catholic and sort of happy with the Spanish) was rebelling against the Spanish. This is almost 50 years before the peace of Munster. The Spanish had not accepted that the Netherlands would become independent, so they would still consider all of it Spanish.

It is a convienent name for the Spanish ruled piece of the Burgundian Inheritance. And Isabella (and Albrecht) OTL was able to largely pacify the area that they ruled over, despite the ongoing war with the Dutch.

Also I am not certain of France would want a protestant country in open rebellion against their rulers, certainly not with the Hugenots back home.

The Netherlands were always a French objective. They were a center of trade and the Rhine is the "natural" eastern border for France.

The Dutch could very much profit from any unrest in Spain, possibly (re)conquering much of the Netherlands that was still Spanish, maybe even force a peace treaty with Spain including a border more to the south than in the current Netherlands

I was proposing that the Spanish basically hand over the Spanish-occupied pieces of the 17 Provinces (better name?) to the French, and recognize the French claims to the rest of it (as part of some alliance against the Austrian Hapsburg).

The Spanish would be getting rid of a troublesome territory, put the French into direct contact with the Dutch rebels, and put the French in a position to really leverage the English.
 
Oh, right, true. Well, how much of a King (as opposed to Prince Consort) hed be is an open question, though. I guess both is possible. More importantly, though, in 1598 Isabella is already 32. Not too old to get children, but the chances were that she wouldnt get any anymore (which proved to be true). And considering teh infighting between Rudolph and Matthias I dont think theyd care overly much for Albrecht...

If both Rudolph and Matthias accept that their brother Albrecht should be the king of Spain, both by his marriage and by his blood, it still might create problems. When Albrecht died IOTL, in 1621, both were already dead. If you go by an Habsburg heir then he would be the Emperor Ferdinand II.
However, Ferdinand's claim would come from his grandfather Ferdinand I, who only had that claim due to a female line (his mother Joanna of Castile). Victor Amadeus' claim, on the other hand, would come from a daughter of Philip II of Spain. As both would have claims originated from female lines, I doubt the Spanish would want again a king of Spain who also is the Emperor, and that never lived in Spain. Victor would have a more recent claim, since it comes from Philip II, and certainly would be more acceptable.
 

Susano

Banned
If both Rudolph and Matthias accept that their brother Albrecht should be the king of Spain, both by his marriage and by his blood, it still might create problems. When Albrecht died IOTL, in 1621, both were already dead. If you go by an Habsburg heir then he would be the Emperor Ferdinand II.
However, Ferdinand's claim would come from his grandfather Ferdinand I, who only had that claim due to a female line (his mother Joanna of Castile). Victor Amadeus' claim, on the other hand, would come from a daughter of Philip II of Spain. As both would have claims originated from female lines, I doubt the Spanish would want again a king of Spain who also is the Emperor, and that never lived in Spain. Victor would have a more recent claim, since it comes from Philip II, and certainly would be more acceptable.

Doesnt Philips claim also in the end came from Joanna of Castille, though? Of course the claim does go all the way back to Spanish unifcation, but so what? If Austria fidn sneough support its enough of a casus belli. What the Spaniards want is more or less irrelevant in this question - so Spain fights on the other side of the war. Happens.

However, if conclfict happens in 1598, as said, I do think anyways Rudolph and Matthias would split the domains among them. Of course, neither had children, and seeing as both were IOTL HREmperors and still had no children I guess that wont be changed. So irrelevant of wether theres a crisis in 1598 or not, theres a crisis at the next round of succession. But since nobody wants unification of the Habsburg domains, I guess they would be split (again) under Ferdinand IIs son (that is, Ferdinand II would rule one, and the other would go to a younger son, I think). IF Austria wins the ensuing war, that is.
 
Henri IV's OTL actions lead me to believe he would take the safer course and accept the Spanish Netherlands, if it were offered in return for his support. His particular policies might allow him to achieve the same effect on the Flemish that Albert and Isabella did, and France would break the Habsburg encirclement while ensuring the continued division of its rivals in Spain and Austria. There's finally the question of just what France would have to do against Austria, which might be nothing beyond token support.

OTOH, Isabella had been the Catholic claimant during the French Wars of Religions. It depends on whether or not he holds a grudge.

What might this mean for Portugal, though? They might throw out the Philippines early, if there's a conflict, but I don't think the Iberian Union had deteriorated to that point. Albert had also been the first Viceroy of Portugal, and if the Dutch are more distracted with wars against later French Kings, then Portugal's colonial empire may fare better. I think it's likely that Isabella and Albert would avoid the mistakes of the later Philippines, and Portugal may pass onto Victor Amadeus. Still, it would remain fragile, and only grow more so as time went on and Portugal became either stronger, and more capable of breaking away, or weaker, and thus more willing to.
 
Last edited:
Top