WI Philip II of Spain had died in 1580?

Now I've got an interesting idea. Let's say that the Portuguese courts decide in favour of Catherine, and it causes some trouble with Spain. In order to keep the peace between the countries the Spanish regents and the Portuguese courts decide that it would be good another marriage between both royal houses, and then the eldest son of Catherine, Teodosio, is married to the eldest daughter of Philip II, Elisabeth.
Now, if the others sons of Philip die as IOTL, but the future Philip III dies also (is not so difficult, he was the only one of Anna of Austria's children who survived), then the heir of Spain would be Elisabeth. We could see again an Iberian Union, but ironically enough under the House of Braganza.

Actually, it would be more dificult than that... ;)

Castile would be inherited by the Braganza prince, but Aragon (inc. Naples, Sicily and Sardinia), which had (Semi-)Salic Law would default to the senior Austrian line of the Habsburgs...

Could we see a War of the Spanish Succession a hundred and twenty years early? ;)
 
About the Dutch situation:
Assuming that there will be enough unrest in Spain that is not able to focus on the Netherlands, and reading the rest of the thread it seems there is good reason to suspect that will happen, I think this will happen.

First the Dutch will appeal to the new government to listen to their demands, religious freedom for protestants, lower taxes, more autonomy, etc. Assuming that whatever new government there is refuses this, a very good chance, the Dutch will continue their rebellion. I think pretty soon all the areas that had signed the union of Utrecht (basicly the Dutch speaking parts, including most of Flanders and Brabant) will be cleared from Spanish soldiers, who will be driven to the catholic and loyal south (Artois, Hainaut, Namur, French speaking Flanders). Spain is busy and unable to sent reinforces and the Dutch Spanish war continues here. Antwerp will be used as the Dutch capital. Zeeland, Flanders, Brabant and Holland will become the most important provinces, where the rich traders will be and from where colonisation will start. Because the Netherlands is still at war with Spain, but not with Portugal, it will focus on the Spanish colonies. So I think there is a chance for a Dutch Philipines and various Spanish Caribean Islands (but no Dutch Mexico or Peru, I don't think the Dutch are able to do that). The Dutch will still be interested in Indonesia and India, so trading posts will arise there, but without a Portugese-Dutch war, the Portugese colonies are safe.
A Dutch colony near New York and at the Cape are still likely to happen.

The end result might be a wealthy Dutch state including Flanders, Brabant and possibly (parts of) Limburg, Namur and Hainaut with various colonies. At the end of the troubles in Spain they will probably want to become independent and are in a lot stronger position than OTL.

Another interesting thing that could happen is that The Netherlands ask a foreign power to rule them. They did that OTL, but both France as England wheren't interested, because they feared Spain. With a weakened Spain one of them might agree to help the Dutch. So this might not lead to an independent Netherlands, but to a French or English Netherlands.
 
About the Dutch situation:
Assuming that there will be enough unrest in Spain that is not able to focus on the Netherlands, and reading the rest of the thread it seems there is good reason to suspect that will happen, I think this will happen.

First the Dutch will appeal to the new government to listen to their demands, religious freedom for protestants, lower taxes, more autonomy, etc. Assuming that whatever new government there is refuses this, a very good chance, the Dutch will continue their rebellion. I think pretty soon all the areas that had signed the union of Utrecht (basicly the Dutch speaking parts, including most of Flanders and Brabant) will be cleared from Spanish soldiers, who will be driven to the catholic and loyal south (Artois, Hainaut, Namur, French speaking Flanders). Spain is busy and unable to sent reinforces and the Dutch Spanish war continues here. Antwerp will be used as the Dutch capital. Zeeland, Flanders, Brabant and Holland will become the most important provinces, where the rich traders will be and from where colonisation will start. Because the Netherlands is still at war with Spain, but not with Portugal, it will focus on the Spanish colonies. So I think there is a chance for a Dutch Philipines and various Spanish Caribean Islands (but no Dutch Mexico or Peru, I don't think the Dutch are able to do that). The Dutch will still be interested in Indonesia and India, so trading posts will arise there, but without a Portugese-Dutch war, the Portugese colonies are safe.
A Dutch colony near New York and at the Cape are still likely to happen.

The end result might be a wealthy Dutch state including Flanders, Brabant and possibly (parts of) Limburg, Namur and Hainaut with various colonies. At the end of the troubles in Spain they will probably want to become independent and are in a lot stronger position than OTL.

Another interesting thing that could happen is that The Netherlands ask a foreign power to rule them. They did that OTL, but both France as England wheren't interested, because they feared Spain. With a weakened Spain one of them might agree to help the Dutch. So this might not lead to an independent Netherlands, but to a French or English Netherlands.

If the French king decides to support them, then he will probably go for the rest of the Burgundian inheritance...
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
About the Dutch situation:
Assuming that there will be enough unrest in Spain that is not able to focus on the Netherlands, and reading the rest of the thread it seems there is good reason to suspect that will happen, I think this will happen.

First the Dutch will appeal to the new government to listen to their demands, religious freedom for protestants, lower taxes, more autonomy, etc. Assuming that whatever new government there is refuses this, a very good chance, the Dutch will continue their rebellion. I think pretty soon all the areas that had signed the union of Utrecht (basicly the Dutch speaking parts, including most of Flanders and Brabant) will be cleared from Spanish soldiers, who will be driven to the catholic and loyal south (Artois, Hainaut, Namur, French speaking Flanders). Spain is busy and unable to sent reinforces and the Dutch Spanish war continues here. Antwerp will be used as the Dutch capital. Zeeland, Flanders, Brabant and Holland will become the most important provinces, where the rich traders will be and from where colonisation will start. Because the Netherlands is still at war with Spain, but not with Portugal, it will focus on the Spanish colonies. So I think there is a chance for a Dutch Philipines and various Spanish Caribean Islands (but no Dutch Mexico or Peru, I don't think the Dutch are able to do that). The Dutch will still be interested in Indonesia and India, so trading posts will arise there, but without a Portugese-Dutch war, the Portugese colonies are safe.
A Dutch colony near New York and at the Cape are still likely to happen.

The end result might be a wealthy Dutch state including Flanders, Brabant and possibly (parts of) Limburg, Namur and Hainaut with various colonies. At the end of the troubles in Spain they will probably want to become independent and are in a lot stronger position than OTL.

Another interesting thing that could happen is that The Netherlands ask a foreign power to rule them. They did that OTL, but both France as England wheren't interested, because they feared Spain. With a weakened Spain one of them might agree to help the Dutch. So this might not lead to an independent Netherlands, but to a French or English Netherlands.

Regarding the Portoguese colonies: I'm fairly sure that the VOC would attack the Portoguese possesions in the East Indies regardless.
 
You would still have spanish as the dominating language. It is a matter of demographics.

That's true. Castillian would still be the dominating language. But I think it would have some Portuguese influence if Lisbon is chosen as the main capital (probably some Portuguese words would be more used, as in the OTL Iberian Union Castillian words replaced older Portuguese ones).

Actually, it would be more dificult than that... ;)

Castile would be inherited by the Braganza prince, but Aragon (inc. Naples, Sicily and Sardinia), which had (Semi-)Salic Law would default to the senior Austrian line of the Habsburgs...

Could we see a War of the Spanish Succession a hundred and twenty years early? ;)

Well, I doubt they would let Aragon become independent now that Portugal was included in the union.;) I means war!:D
 
Regarding the Portoguese colonies: I'm fairly sure that the VOC would attack the Portoguese possesions in the East Indies regardless.
But it would mean increasing the number of enemies, for not so certain gains.
Besides it would bring the English (Portuguese allies) against them at the very least.
 
But it would mean increasing the number of enemies, for not so certain gains.
Besides it would bring the English (Portuguese allies) against them at the very least.

I think that the VOC (Dutch East India company) will leave the Portugese colonies alone. Generaly colonies where only stolen from other powers during a war, so why would it change (assuming the VOC isn't butterflied away).

But if the Portugese get involved in the unrest in Spain, this might change. Certainly if the Portugese are as unreceptive in the Dutch cause as the Spanish were. But if the portugese are smart they will use the Dutch for there own cause and strike a deal with them. They promise to release the Dutch from their Spanish masters if the Dutch support the Portugese in their bid for the throne of Spain.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
I think that the VOC (Dutch East India company) will leave the Portugese colonies alone. Generaly colonies where only stolen from other powers during a war, so why would it change (assuming the VOC isn't butterflied away).

But if the Portugese get involved in the unrest in Spain, this might change. Certainly if the Portugese are as unreceptive in the Dutch cause as the Spanish were. But if the portugese are smart they will use the Dutch for there own cause and strike a deal with them. They promise to release the Dutch from their Spanish masters if the Dutch support the Portugese in their bid for the throne of Spain.


The VOC destroyed English power in the Archipel without a war between the Republic and England. I don't see why the VOC (which had a independend military and diplomacy) wouldn't do the same with the Portoguese.
 
Probably an opportunity for the Portuguese (and Catalans?) to revolt.

The Catalans? No, centralization had not reached such levels in 1580 that they'd contemplate rebellion against the king. Besides, the French are in no position to support them at this point.

Also, without Philip, and with Spain probably under a regent, there would be an Armada?

I think that whatever regent or regency council Spain will have will be smart enough not to waste the country's resources like that.

You would still have spanish as the dominating language. It is a matter of demographics.

What Spanish language? This is not Portuguese vs Spanish, it's Portuguese vs Castilian. The demographics are not that one-sided and the location of the capital will make a difference.

So this might not lead to an independent Netherlands, but to a French or English Netherlands.

A French or English sovereign, that is. The Dutch would not be offering the Netherlands to the ruler or heir of those countries if things are going their way, which they would be.

War of the Aragonese Succession, anyone? ;)

More like some sort of Pragmatic Sanction to change the succession law. The Austrian Habsburgs wouldn't bother taking a shot at Aragon if they receive compensation - definitely Milan, maybe Franche-Comte or Naples too.
 
A French or English sovereign, that is. The Dutch would not be offering the Netherlands to the ruler or heir of those countries if things are going their way, which they would be.

Maybe François, Duke of Anjou would be luckier this time? He was already invited by William the Silent to be the ruler of Netherlands in 1579.


More like some sort of Pragmatic Sanction to change the succession law. The Austrian Habsburgs wouldn't bother taking a shot at Aragon if they receive compensation - definitely Milan, maybe Franche-Comte or Naples too.

Probably the Habsburgs would also try to keep the territories in Netherlands that are not conquered by the Calvinist. I doubt the Braganzas would want to spend resources to keep it. But Naples belonged to the crown of Aragon, and so it would probably follow the Aragonese fate.
 
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