Redbeard
Banned
Why would East Prussia be. Good bite? It is far away and filled with Germans and Poles. Historically Elizabeth didn't even want to keep it.
East Prussia is close to Russia and being filled with say Poles didn't really stop the Russians elsewhere.
Controlling Denmark? The intention was not to control Denmark. The intention was to take Schleswig and reunite it with Holstein.
Controlling Denmark does not necessarily mean occupying or annexing but meaning that Denmark would oppose Russian interests.
Holstein? That is definitively Danish controlled. But anyway I don't think supplies will be the big problem in a short campaign. After all it is mid summer and in a cultivated landscape. But once the Kolberg depot is empty the Russian army may experience problems as the Danish Navy will be capable of preventing its resupply.The war with be far from Russia but close to the Russian held Holstein and Kolberg, which was intended to act as a supply depot once the war started.
If the Danes retreat to Fyn then the Russians can occupy far more than just Schleswig (which is all they desire), so Russia wins the war.
The landscape leading to Holstein is rather channeling, i.e. giving an advancing army relatively few routes in between the numerous lakes, rivers and swamps. That also give the defender a lot of opportunities to select good positions. AFAIK of St. Germains plan it was to try to engage outside Holstein, and the landscape gives a lot of good opportunities to do that favourably, not just at Wismar. If a strong enemy goes up the Jutland peninsula the usual plan would be utilising your naval superiority and withdraw to one of the islands on the eastcoast of Jutland and/or a fortress like Fredericia and from there land in Jutland again in the back or flank of the invader. If the Russians had advanced up Jutland that probably would have been the plan and just occupying Jutland or S-H isn't a war winning position vs. Denmark.
[/QUOTE]The war certainly would t have been a walkover as you correctly state the Danish army was competent. However, it was against a larger, more experienced, more competent army led by one of the greatest Russian generals of the time, Rumyanstev. I mean you have to remember the Russian armies were the ones mainly responsible for devastating Prussia during the Seven Years' War.
St. Germains army was 27.000 and the Russian army when it started its march 40.000, so certainly numerically superior, but not significantly if having to break through at a place like Wismar - anything can happen. And sure the Russians gave an important contribution to fighting the Prussians in the SYW especially in the end phase, but I don't agree they were mainly responsible for devastating Prussia. The Austrians.would IMHO at least share the title.
I considder both Generals competent above average, which again makes it very difficult to predict an outcome. I must admit that I'm not deep into the SYW or the Russian army at that time, but my impression is that it mainly excelled in defensive battles.