WI Peron survives until 1976 and abort the argentinian coup

The title explains it all, what if Peron survives until 1976 (he would be 80), and the argentinian coup happens as OTL, but he defeats the coup, what would happen after that? The coup was supported by american authorities, so would he embargo the US?
 
The situation had become so chaotic, even before his death, that IMO a successful coup was inevitable. The one thing holding back the military was the belief that maybe letting Peron be president again would put an end to the violence. When it didn't--with left-and right-wing Peronists fighting against each other--I just don't see how a successful coup could have been avoided. No doubt Isabel ruined things even further, but they would have gotten worse anyway.
 
The title explains it all, what if Peron survives until 1976 (he would be 80), and the argentinian coup happens as OTL, but he defeats the coup, what would happen after that? The coup was supported by american authorities, so would he embargo the US?

If Perón would have survived beyond 80 years old, there were no chance of a coup like happened in OTL 1976. He was very pragmatic, and the guerrilla would have been resolved with a mix of legal and illegal methods. Foreign questionings about human rights would be lesser, because Argentina was a "democracy", and his figure was so big in internal matters, that a coup would alienate several sectors of argentinian life, even military ones. A coup happened because of Isabel's inhability to control the situation, and was shot because of economical factors as "Rodrigazo", who provoked the first strike of Trade Unions against a peronist government (most of trade unions were actually peronists). Peron would never accede to implement such a shock therapy and a poorly implemented as it was. As you can see in 1952 crisis, he would have made some kind of adjustment, but not in a way to erode his popularity. When Isabel Peron was reemplaced by Italo Luder during three months in 1975, the chances of a coup decreased drastically, because he was more active and seemed to know where he was standing. When Isabel returns, the attempted coup returns to the ring, because she had no idea and delegated (everything) to dangerous sectors such as Lopez Rega, who fell in disgrace when "Tripe A" was discover in their structure, by a Colonel just by chance, and after Rodrigazo's shock.

The trhuth was that by 1976, guerrilla was almost destroyed in their capacities, but still had a good capacitiy to damage. But many factors did the situation not tolerable.

There were no need to a US back for that 1976 OTL coup, the thing was so rotten that almost everybody wanted a coup in Argentina...after all, it was the easiest coup ever to do in Argentina history.
 
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So if I read things right, you don't need Perron to survive unto 1980, you need Evita to survive him instead of the other way round?
 
Wasn't Peron in pretty bad mental health by the time he died? Suffering from dementia or something similar... if you want him to survive into his eighties and be effective then he needs better health then he had.
 
Wasn't Peron in pretty bad mental health by the time he died? Suffering from dementia or something similar... if you want him to survive into his eighties and be effective then he needs better health then he had.

No, according to Vernon Walters, who had a secret meeting with him in early 1974, Perón was mentally lucid, and did not get up in the two hours of the interview or to go to the bathroom. Then I go to look for the quote of that...my books are currently in another place right now, but also everyone agrees that their ability to concentrate and work were not affected by their age. What he did have was certain physical, perhaps emotional, demands, as an old man he was. When Ricardo Balbin, the head of the opposition, asked him why he had someone like Lopez Rega .... Perón replied, "when you can't get up off the toilet, you will understand"...

Doctors told Perón in late 1972 that if he had a quiet life, he would be able to live until 1984...but if he came into poltics again, he would die within 2 years or so...and that happened eventually
 
So if I read things right, you don't need Perron to survive unto 1980, you need Evita to survive him instead of the other way round?
Evita was his second wife and died in 1952. Peron's wife during the 1970s was Maria Estela Martinez, usually known as "Isabel". Eva Peron wasn't in the line of sucession in 1952 and I don't think she'd be able to govern effectively in any case (she wanted to arm the unions, for instance).

I agree with Ruperto: the coup becomes unlikely. There will be some amount of kidnapping and torture - that was the Armed Forces doctrine at the time - but nothing in the scale of the dictatorship: Peron wouldn't consider peronist union leaders as enemies (for obvious reasons) and would have no reason to let torturers keep torturing people for months.

So less deaths, maybe trials for the left-wing terrorists (otoh the military would want to cover up the torture, though). IOTL the dictatorship had, for all practical purposes, defeated the insurgents by 1978. I don't see that "time table" slowing down. If anything, it may even be sped up, as resources are employed to go after actual armed insurgents. I'm going to guess he'd resign once that's done, or nearly done, due his health. Bonus points if he manages to get his wife to resign as VP before that, but he chose her as VP, so that's unlikely.

Diplomatically, Peron was going to accept some sort of joint administration of the Falklands the UK had proposed, so the war gets butterflied away. He should be able to achieve better economic performance (is worse than OTL really an option?) but at some point he's going to hand over the reigns to his wife and VP. I'm going to guess the economy falls, but not as much.
 
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I think a successful coup was inevitable once Juan Peron dies at old age, no matter how long you'll going to delay Peron's death, as long as the expected successor was Isabel Peron. If Isabel Peron wasn't the vice president of Juan Peron but instead Italo Luder, the coup would have been averted but even if the coup were to be averted, the economic situation in Argentina would have been still bad because of the effects of Arab Oil Embargo and the government would still try to abandon import substitution industrialization for export-based industrialization or neoliberalism.
 
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