WI Peres-Hussein London Agreement Was Ratified

[Meshakhad]

In 1987, then-Foreign Minister Shimon Peres tried to negotiate an agreement with King Hussein of Jordan where Israel would cede the West Bank to Jordan. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir killed it, and in 1988 Jordan abandoned its claim on the West Bank.

What if Shamir had accepted the deal?

It's highly unlikely that Israel would cede the entire West Bank to Jordan. However, I could easily see a scenario similar to recent proposals IOTL where Israel keeps a few settlements and most of Jerusalem, in exchange for some land on Israel's side of the Green Line. Assuming neither government abandoned negotiations, I think a peace agreement could have been reached by 1990.

The obvious loser here is the PLO. The Peres-Hussein agreement would have excluded them entirely, with Israel recognizing Jordan as representing the Palestinians. The agreement probably wouldn't avert the First Intifada (and implementation would probably have to wait until things quieted down), but it's not hard to see Jordan taking back the West Bank over the protests of the PLO.

Questions
1. What would happen to Jewish settlements? The same issue is discussed today, but perhaps some settlers would find becoming Jordanians preferable to abandoning their homes (provided Jordan grants them full citizenship, which would presumably be included in the final peace deal).

2. Jordanian custody of the Al-Aqsa Complex would probably become outright possession (even without contiguity). Perhaps Israel could be granted the Tomb of the Patriarchs in return.

3. The big question is Gaza. Egypt had already relinquished its claim on Gaza, but perhaps they could change their minds. A Jordanian annexation would be possible, but difficult to implement. Finally, Israel could simply annex Gaza itself - adding ~600,000 Arabs would not threaten Israel's Jewish majority.

4. What would the reaction of most Palestinians be? Would they accept a return to Jordanian rule and no separate Palestinian state? Or would there be an Intifada against Jordan? My guess is that most would go along with varying degrees of reluctance, but there would be plenty of diehards. Some (particularly the Islamists) might try to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy as a stepping stone towards the liberation of Palestine. We might see a Jordanian civil war sometime in the 2000s, possibly even leading to Israeli intervention. And that's without someone like Saddam Hussein stirring up trouble.

 

[CaliGuy]

1. What would happen to Jewish settlements? The same issue is discussed today, but perhaps some settlers would find becoming Jordanians preferable to abandoning their homes (provided Jordan grants them full citizenship, which would presumably be included in the final peace deal).

Honestly, I could see this going either way; after all, I am unsure that Israel would feel sufficiently confident in Jordan's ability to protect these settlers after they end up under Jordanian rule.

2. Jordanian custody of the Al-Aqsa Complex would probably become outright possession (even without contiguity). Perhaps Israel could be granted the Tomb of the Patriarchs in return.

In regards to al-Aqsa, would Israel keep the territory underground (as in, the territory with the ruins of the Jewish temple)?

3. The big question is Gaza. Egypt had already relinquished its claim on Gaza, but perhaps they could change their minds. A Jordanian annexation would be possible, but difficult to implement. Finally, Israel could simply annex Gaza itself - adding ~600,000 Arabs would not threaten Israel's Jewish majority.

What about setting up Gaza as an independent city-state? After all, in our TL, Israel doesn't have the appetite to annex the West Bank--something that I don't see changing soon--even though annexing the West Bank might not threaten Israel's Jewish majority (at least not if the Israeli TFR keeps increasing while the Israeli Arab and Palestinian TFRs keep falling).

4. What would the reaction of most Palestinians be? Would they accept a return to Jordanian rule and no separate Palestinian state? Or would there be an Intifada against Jordan? My guess is that most would go along with varying degrees of reluctance, but there would be plenty of diehards. Some (particularly the Islamists) might try to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy as a stepping stone towards the liberation of Palestine. We might see a Jordanian civil war sometime in the 2000s, possibly even leading to Israeli intervention. And that's without someone like Saddam Hussein stirring up trouble.

I suspect that the Palestinians would attempt to take over all of Jordan in this TL; after all, even without the West Bank, Jordan was already something like half Palestinian!

 

[Simon]

What would happen to Jewish settlements? The same issue is discussed today, but perhaps some settlers would find becoming Jordanians preferable to abandoning their homes (provided Jordan grants them full citizenship, which would presumably be included in the final peace deal).

I really can't see them taking Jordanian citizenship to be honest, if their homes end up on the wrong side of the line then I'd expect them to be moving back to Israel and receiving compensation - be it financial, accommodation, land, or a combination - from the government. Looking at the Genocide, edit wars ahoy!, the settler population in the West Bank excluding Jerusalem looks to be around only 60,000 or so at about this point. Even that's not too bad as until 1983 the population was only about 25,000 people when there was a surge of 30,000-odd settlers, which means they'll only have been in place for about five years or so if the deal went through. Without looking through a list of settlements, when they were founded, and their populations it at least suggests that things might be more negotiable than nowadays. This is of course balanced that whilst a number of the settlers simply moved for the opportunity of land there will also likely be a fair number of diehards who won't want to give up 'their' land quietly so swings and roundabouts.

Jordanian custody of the Al-Aqsa Complex would probably become outright possession (even without contiguity). Perhaps Israel could be granted the Tomb of the Patriarchs in return.

Certainly possible, how large an area were you thinking about?

The big question is Gaza. Egypt had already relinquished its claim on Gaza, but perhaps they could change their minds. A Jordanian annexation would be possible, but difficult to implement. Finally, Israel could simply annex Gaza itself - adding ~600,000 Arabs would not threaten Israel's Jewish majority.

If Israel were to annex Gaza then more likely they would try to strike a deal to move the Arab population to the West Bank in return for large financial payments to build new housing and infrastructure. I could see the US stumping up a large amount of financial aid for Israel, in effect paying the costs, if they thought it would help settle the Middle East.

What would the reaction of most Palestinians be? Would they accept a return to Jordanian rule and no separate Palestinian state?

Depending on how things go once the land is internationally recognised as Jordanian legally there wouldn't be any bar to Jordan deciding to hold a referendum under the UN's right to self-determination and granting the West Bank independence somewhere down the line, under a suitable government of course.

I suspect that the Palestinians would attempt to take over all of Jordan in this TL; after all, even without the West Bank, Jordan was already something like half Palestinian!

How much of that was down to the refugee camps though? IIRC Jordan hasn't granted the Palestinians citizenship due to both domestic and right of return issues. If the West Bank is available I could see a lot of them being heavily 'encouraged' to move there, with exceptions for those with qualifications or skills. After Black September the Jordanian government wouldn't be taking any chances.