WI Perdicaris Incident goes bad?

The Vulture

Banned
What if the Perdicaris Incident leads to a US-Morocco War, possibly dragging in Spain or France? Is the US up to a foreign war in 1904?

And yes, I have seen The Wind and the Lion. :)
 
Probably something like I was trying to wargame out over on CF.net...a very interesting Franco-American naval war. I tried to start a timeline based on that premise two years ago (search "Perdicaris" and you'll find it), but it garnered such little interest that I didn't bother doing anything else with it.
 

The Vulture

Banned
Probably something like I was trying to wargame out over on CF.net...a very interesting Franco-American naval war. I tried to start a timeline based on that premise two years ago (search "Perdicaris" and you'll find it), but it garnered such little interest that I didn't bother doing anything else with it.

Yeah, it's always seemed to be a POD pregnant with potential to me. Teddy Roosevelt, desert bandits, great powers, battleships, what else do you need?
 
It's not too much of a stretch to imagine this thing going bad, though I'd wager the initial conflict would be on the ground.

So let's say the Sultan opts not to accept Raisuli's demands in the hopes that by standing up to the Americans, he could win a bit of prestige on the world stage and advance his position as an independent nation (plausible?).

He issues a declaration fairly early on and Roosevelt is incensed ordering the Marines to seize the various customs houses as per the plan in OTL. This quickly turns bloody, causing the Moroccans to call on the French for aid, French forces engage the Marines, leading to the Marines calling in naval gunfire support from the American fleet. The actions of the American fleet pull the French fleet in and an engagement soon follows, with both sides saying the other shot first.

These actions in Morocco lead to Roosevelt declaring war on France (much to the dismay of Britain) and marshaling additional troops to "protect American interests abroad". Furthermore, feelers are sent out to see if America can gain any allies in the region. I could see Spain joining the US against France in Morocco and with American aid I could see them inflicting several defeats on the French, perhaps with the aid of local chieftains.

Now if Germany jumps on board, that'd be cool too, potentially being enough to start WWI. Germany supports the US/Spanish campaign in Morocco, and declares war on France, this brings in Russia to support France (Perhaps hoping for French aid against Japan?) which subsequently brings in Austria-Hungary on the side of Germany...This being 1904, there's no Schlieffen plan, so probably no invasion of Belgium meaning Britain stays out of this one...for now.
 
Now if Germany jumps on board, that'd be cool too, potentially being enough to start WWI. Germany supports the US/Spanish campaign in Morocco, and declares war on France, this brings in Russia to support France (Perhaps hoping for French aid against Japan?) which subsequently brings in Austria-Hungary on the side of Germany...This being 1904, there's no Schlieffen plan, so probably no invasion of Belgium meaning Britain stays out of this one...for now.

This sounds like the best idea for a TL that I have heard in a long time. And all of it is quite plausible. Someone please write it. Please :)
 

The Vulture

Banned
Just wanted an opinion on the odds-on favorite for a 1904 war with

France
Morocco
Russia

vs.

US
Spain
Germany
Austria-Hungary

Japan and Britain are maybes for the top, Italy and the Ottoman Empire for the bottom.
 
Vulture

If that goes ahead I can't see any result except a victory for side B. Less the US, although it will cause problems, possibly a lot, but your got a WWI without British support for the entente and with Spain meaning an extra front for the central powers. Not to mention that possibly the Italians might join in the gang-bang. At this point the British are only just mending relations with France and still very cool with Russia. They might be inclined to join the entente for reasons of power balance but that would leave Canada vulnerable from US attacks.

I think that the best bet would be either Germany having the sense to stay out of things, seeing France and America in a bitter conflict and no need to trigger a major multi-great power war. In that case you might see some clashes, chiefly at sea and ending with France securing its control over Morocco, as the US is too far away, and America conquering the French possessions in the Americas.

Steve

Just wanted an opinion on the odds-on favorite for a 1904 war with

France
Morocco
Russia

vs.

US
Spain
Germany
Austria-Hungary

Japan and Britain are maybes for the top, Italy and the Ottoman Empire for the bottom.
 
Was'nt also the kaiser interested in Morocco at the time?
The Landing of Wilhelm II in Tangier is March 31, 1905
:D the plot thickens! :D
 
Note that the Russo-Japanese War has already been underway for several months at this point.

It's not unreasonable that the 1905 Revolution might be rather more serious...
 
Note that the Russo-Japanese War has already been underway for several months at this point.

It's not unreasonable that the 1905 Revolution might be rather more serious...

Damn! I forgot that.:eek: That makes it highly unlikely that Russia would be able to support France to any degree so if Germany steps in France probably gets crushed.

Not to mention if Russia did declare war I'm not sure of the wording of the 1st Anglo-Japanese alliance. Although it may have been limited to the Far East region I know that if a 2nd power had supported Russia Britain would have been treaty bound to support Japan. May not be triggered by Russia joining a general European war but Britain might get drawn in against France as well. [Other advantages of this is that it might end things quickly and give Britain a say in the peace]. Not saying they would go for it but there could be pressure.

Steve
 
Im not that familiar with the incident so ive looked it up on wiki.
I doubt Spain would support America in this. America just destroyed them in the Spanish American war. The Spanish mood was defeatest and still recovering for the disaster of 1898.
This was a time of mistrust of Spanish leaders and rising Anarchisim and fascism. Only 5 years later the workers in Barcelona rioted due to being called up for sevice in Morocco leading to "la Semana tragica" or the Tragic week.
The politicians wont support a country that had destroyed thier empire in a time when the people and the country is in no fit state whatsoever for a major war.
 
Just wanted an opinion on the odds-on favorite for a 1904 war with

France
Morocco
Russia

vs.

US
Spain
Germany
Austria-Hungary

Japan and Britain are maybes for the top, Italy and the Ottoman Empire for the bottom.


GIven the level of understanding on a personal and formal level between the US and the UK at the time, plus the flirtation with a UK/Imperial Germany alliance, the UK would (IMO) almost assuredly be a benevolent neutral, leaning strongly toward the US/Germany/A-H.

Can't see any reason for Japanese or Ottoman involvement, especially the latter. The Japanese might hang around the edges, looking for weak colonies to pick off, and thus join opportunistically once it's established which way the wind is blowing.

The one that gets me, though, is Spain lining up with the nation who delivered a first-class ass-kicking just six years earlier. That strains plausibility a bit.
 
Can't see any reason for Japanese or Ottoman involvement, especially the latter. The Japanese might hang around the edges, looking for weak colonies to pick off, and thus join opportunistically once it's established which way the wind is blowing.

The one that gets me, though, is Spain lining up with the nation who delivered a first-class ass-kicking just six years earlier. That strains plausibility a bit.


Keep the Russians out, and you keep Japan out. Otherwise, as I pointed out above, the Russo-Jappanese War's already underway....
 
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