WI: Peninsula Campaign Successful

What happens if George McClellan is less overly cautios in 1862 and the Peninsula Campaign manages to take Richmond? Does the Confederacy fold or do they simply go on with a new capital? And does the Emancipation Proclamation happen if the Union wins in 1862?
 
Because of the rail net, Richmond and Petersburg are two of the only places the Confederates can mass an army as large as Lee's; without them, the next place they can maintain the army would be on the Roanoke river in North Carolina. This puts much of the Confederates' economic assets and recruiting grounds behind Union lines; even if the VA men in the army don't desert as a result, they're not getting many fresh recruits. Moreover, not any city can serve as a capital; there needs to be a certain level of infrastructure to support the bureaucracy.

With this in mind, it seems likely that the Confederates under Lee (if not Johnston) would fight to the bitter end to keep Richmond.
 
What happens if George McClellan is less overly cautios in 1862 and the Peninsula Campaign manages to take Richmond? Does the Confederacy fold or do they simply go on with a new capital? And does the Emancipation Proclamation happen if the Union wins in 1862?

So, what if McClellan wasn't McClellan then?

As @dandan_noodles said, the rebs are going to fight tooth and nail to hold on to Richmond. Now, in theory, I think the Union could probably bull through, with a little luck, though logistics might start to become an issue (though riverine transport would alleviate much of this difficulty). However, if and when word gets out about how bad the slaughter is, it might be called off for political reasons.
 
So, what if McClellan wasn't McClellan then?

As @dandan_noodles said, the rebs are going to fight tooth and nail to hold on to Richmond. Now, in theory, I think the Union could probably bull through, with a little luck, though logistics might start to become an issue (though riverine transport would alleviate much of this difficulty). However, if and when word gets out about how bad the slaughter is, it might be called off for political reasons.

Basically if McClellan isn't McClellan or Lincoln gives an order he can't refuse. Is there a chance Richmond turns into a prolonged siege a la Vicksburg
 
Apparently after 1862 the Confederacy built up some industrial capacity in places like the Georgian towns of Columbus and Atlanta. In 1862 what industry they had was still concentrated in Richmond and New Orleans, so they couldn't have survived long holding both. They still would have had part of the Mississippi river basin, but otherwise the situation would have been similar to what happened after Richmond fell IOTL in 1865. Probably what happens is that Davis gets them to fight on until the fall of Vicksburg and after that his generals convince him that it's over.

However, there is a big historical change if the Confederates thrown in the towel and something like the Hampton Roads conference occurs before the Emancipation Proclamation, which would be likely as Lincoln wouldn't need to worry about European and abolitionist opinion in this scenario, though the problem of what to do about slaves making their way to the Union armies would remain. If the Confederates agree to repeal all secession resolutions in return for shelving the whole slavery issue, Lincoln would likely agree. Somewhat ironically, this is exactly the sort of peace McClellan wanted and he could have gotten it if he had pressed the attack home at Richmond.
 
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