WI: Pedro II of Brazil shot in 1865

In September 1865, in the opening stages of the War of the Triple Alliance, Emperor Dom Pedro II arrived at Uruguaiana, a Brazilian border town which had been conquered and occupied by the Paraguayan army. The Brazilians were quick to react and laid siege to the town, under the command of the Baron of Porto Alegre, and the presidents Bartolomé Mitre of Argentina and Venancio Flores of Uruguay eventually arrived there with their own forces to help. The Paraguayans were helplessly outnumbered and outclassed, with low supplies, but it wasn't until Dom Pedro II offered his own terms that their commander agreed to surrender to the Allies.

However, before that happened, Dom Pedro II mounted his horse and, in a show of courage (or madness), rode up to the walls of Uruguaina, riding within the range of a common rifle. In OTL, no shoots were fired, but let's say that ITTL a nervous Paraguayan soldier aims at the Emperor of Brazil and shoots him lethally. At age 40, after a successul reign of 20 years, Dom Pedro II lays dead, assassinated by Paraguay.

What happens now? Short-term, what happens at Uruguaiana? The Emperor had brought with him his newly wed sons-in-law, Gaston d'Orléans and Louis of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, and put them in charge of the army. Will the Brazilians follow orders from these foreigners, or will they revert back to the Baron of Porto Alegre, or perhaps Admiral Tamandaré? What about Mitre and Flores?

Long-term, how does the war effort go? I imagine that the national outrage at Dom Pedro II's death will serve to guarantee, at least temporarily, the succession of his daughter as Empress Isabel I. She has no children as of now and will have trouble conceiving for a decade, so it's quite likely that her sister D. Leopoldina, now Princess Imperial of Brazil, stays a while longer here, perhaps forever. Republicanism was nigh non-existent in 1865 and, on the eve of the Paraguayan War, the Brazilian monarchy and its institutions were at their strongest. Politically, there was trouble in the clash among the ultraconservatives of the Conservative Party and the moderates of the Progressive League, which at the time was a very unstable alliance between mild conservatives and the Liberal Party. For now, I'd say that the monarchy is safe, but as the Paraguayan War drags on and on, Emperor Consort Gaston grows in impopularity and Isabel fails to birth an heir, I'm not sure what can happen.

As Empress, what does Isabel do? I can see her trying to appease the Conservatives, but at the same time picking a man loyal to her and the Crown to form a government. Could we see a renewed cabinet of (the Duke of) Caxias? Or maybe an earlier Rio Branco cabinet?
 
In September 1865, in the opening stages of the War of the Triple Alliance, Emperor Dom Pedro II arrived at Uruguaiana, a Brazilian border town which had been conquered and occupied by the Paraguayan army. The Brazilians were quick to react and laid siege to the town, under the command of the Baron of Porto Alegre, and the presidents Bartolomé Mitre of Argentina and Venancio Flores of Uruguay eventually arrived there with their own forces to help. The Paraguayans were helplessly outnumbered and outclassed, with low supplies, but it wasn't until Dom Pedro II offered his own terms that their commander agreed to surrender to the Allies.

However, before that happened, Dom Pedro II mounted his horse and, in a show of courage (or madness), rode up to the walls of Uruguaina, riding within the range of a common rifle. In OTL, no shoots were fired, but let's say that ITTL a nervous Paraguayan soldier aims at the Emperor of Brazil and shoots him lethally. At age 40, after a successul reign of 20 years, Dom Pedro II lays dead, assassinated by Paraguay.

What happens now? Short-term, what happens at Uruguaiana? The Emperor had brought with him his newly wed sons-in-law, Gaston d'Orléans and Louis of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, and put them in charge of the army. Will the Brazilians follow orders from these foreigners, or will they revert back to the Baron of Porto Alegre, or perhaps Admiral Tamandaré? What about Mitre and Flores?

Long-term, how does the war effort go? I imagine that the national outrage at Dom Pedro II's death will serve to guarantee, at least temporarily, the succession of his daughter as Empress Isabel I. She has no children as of now and will have trouble conceiving for a decade, so it's quite likely that her sister D. Leopoldina, now Princess Imperial of Brazil, stays a while longer here, perhaps forever. Republicanism was nigh non-existent in 1865 and, on the eve of the Paraguayan War, the Brazilian monarchy and its institutions were at their strongest. Politically, there was trouble in the clash among the ultraconservatives of the Conservative Party and the moderates of the Progressive League, which at the time was a very unstable alliance between mild conservatives and the Liberal Party. For now, I'd say that the monarchy is safe, but as the Paraguayan War drags on and on, Emperor Consort Gaston grows in impopularity and Isabel fails to birth an heir, I'm not sure what can happen.

As Empress, what does Isabel do? I can see her trying to appease the Conservatives, but at the same time picking a man loyal to her and the Crown to form a government. Could we see a renewed cabinet of (the Duke of) Caxias? Or maybe an earlier Rio Branco cabinet?

It depends on Isabel I handles things. If she alienates the ruling class (as she did in OTL) they will start to get restless but if she is politically savvy she may be able to avoid the coup that replaced her the Empire with a Republic. Many historians have stated that Pedro II could have stopped the fall of the Empire (which was a top down rather than a bottom up affair) but he didn't seem to care and would not fire on his people. Perhaps Isabel I and his advisors wouldn't have that problem (particularly if she frees the slaves as she did in OTL - for which she was given the name "The Redemptress" - and has a ready made political base). It is NOT a foregone conclusion that the Empire of Brasil should fall, in fact many people were surprised it did and the oligarchal governments that replaced it were not vastly popular.

Here's another twist - if Isabel I survives as Empress (and she lived to 1921) does she intervene in the Portugese Revolution that deposed her cousin, Manuel II?
 
It is NOT a foregone conclusion that the Empire of Brasil should fall, in fact many people were surprised it did and the oligarchal governments that replaced it were not vastly popular.

Many people seem to forget this which is irritating when speculation on a surviving empire. Personally my favorite POD for this is if only one of Pedro's sons survives and the empire grows.

However, with an 1865 POD I'm sure Isabella would be able to have a grip on power thanks to the fairly competent men Pedro II had advising him at this time.

Here's another twist - if Isabel I survives as Empress (and she lived to 1921) does she intervene in the Portugese Revolution that deposed her cousin, Manuel II?

That's actually fairly interesting. If anything it gives the Portuguese monarchists a place of exile and refuge where they could have a decent amount of sympathy.

Though I don't think Brazil would intervene, it would really depend on their internal problems at home and whether all is stable in South America.
 
Top