WI: Pearl Harbour Raid Fails

[SealTheRealDeal]

What if the torpedos all miss, fail to detonate, or hit well protected/non-critical/easily repaired parts of the ships?

How screwed is Japan in TL where America has its full Pacific fleet from the get go?

 

[HMS St.Lawrence]

Heads are going to roll in the Japanese Navy, hopefully (for the Japanese) the more competents officers will be spared.
Of course the US Navy has a way better starting position -which do not mean they're out of the wood.
If the Americans play by the Japanese rules and try to fight a fleet engagement, chances are the're bound for a nasty surprise. The IJN is training for exactly that since at least a decade and if the battle is delayed enough for Yamato to enter service, or even Musashi, the Japanese will have battleships the American can't compete with.
But I don't see the Japaneses achieving their victory strikes they did OTL with the pressure the US battleline will put on them, and that will only hasten their final defeat.

 

[gatordad699]

Not to be glib or diminish your question, but IMHO give or take 3-4 years later the US has firebombed 69 Japanese cities and nuked two. Maybe not Nagasaki, it was not the primary target that day.
What would change?
Sneak attack, check.
Americans killed on Sunday morning, check.
Bataan death march, check.
Japanese behave, well pretty bad, check.
US has everything they had in OTL, check.
Americans pissed off, check.
Japanese in trouble in 6 months, check.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Not to be glib or diminish your question, but IMHO give or take 3-4 years later the US has firebombed 69 Japanese cities and nuked two. Maybe not Nagasaki, it was not the primary target that day.
What would change?
Sneak attack, check.
Americans killed on Sunday morning, check.
Bataan death march, check.
Japanese behave, well pretty bad, check.
US has everything they had in OTL, check.
Americans pissed off, check.
Japanese in trouble in 6 months, check.

Well yeah, of course the Japanese still loose badly. I know this only reinforces the generals. I'm not asking about the generals though, I'm asking about the specifics.

 

[1Big Rich]

What is the nature of the failure? The fleet sortied on the night of the 6th and isn't in port?

Short and Kimmel receive the warning early and fighter are up over the various airfilds and the naval base?

Is the failure the First Wave suffers significant losses for modest damaged, and the Second Wave is called off?\

Mu thoughts.

 

[Michel Van]

The question is what about the attack on Pearl harbor is not successful at all for Japanese ?
There goal was to hit US navy hard and expand so fast as they could in Asia and Pacific
build there forces up over years, until US had replaced there losses or surrender.

But the attack on Pearl Harbor was only partial a success, since US Aircraft Carriers were on exercises on sea.
and they play a key role in Japanese fiasco of Midway !
Next to that were US shipyards already building large Battleships and Aircraft carrier.

A bigger failure at Pearl Harbor would put Japanese in hell of problems:
They attack a enemy, who has it's pacific fleet largely operational and they are extrem piss off...
Japan military have to abandon there plans of Asia and Pacific conquest.
and goes on Defence strategy against angry USA, in hope to survive.
But with dwindling resource, there military code hackt by US Navy and US economy that goes in war production overdrive,
Japan will surrenders sooner or later.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The KB rolls over a USN sub on or about the early evening of 6th Dec without realizing

The subs skipper astutely puts 2 and 2 together understanding that there is no other reason for it to be where it is and sends out a concise contact report

The USN during the night raises steam and sorties everything that can move to the south of the Island remaining under possible air cover and tightens control over the telephone exchange and radio.

The attacking first wave arrives finding itself opposed by scores of fighters, alert AAA and most of the expected targets absent.

It suffers heavy losses while only managing to damage a handful of vessels still in harbor.

Out of 183 aircraft of the first wave - 44 are shot down and many others damaged with at least 49 aircraft written off through damage (many having to be jettisoned after landing)

The Japanese leadership upon realizing the scale of the loss, bottles the 2nd raid - recovers the survivors and fearing an imminent counter attack heads back to Japan (the USN although periodically finding the fleet throughout the 7th is never in a position to attack it).

The KB has through all causes lost 24% of its air strength and 18% of its air crews (KIA/WIA/MIA) through shot down and written off aircraft of the first wave and struggles to rebuild with none of the air groups ever managing to fully recover before the decisive battles in 1942.

With the Pacific Fleet intact the Operations around Wake Island are abandoned and the Island remains in US Hands and is drastically reinforced over the next months

The Japanese not enjoying the freedom that they had expected by decimating the USN Pacific fleet have to scale back subsequent operations for fear of a reinforced USN Pac Flt making a full bloodied attack wherever they chose.

After that??? Mothras flapping wings!

 

[GTStinger]

I would guess that KB still supports Wake as per OTL. Spare aircraft are shuffled to the carriers with the most avgas available. 2-4 carriers go to Wake while the others return to the home islands. This could make for an early "Decisive Battle" if the USN attempts to resupply Wake.

IJN carriers with reduced pilot strength and fuel concerns against a cocky USN that hasn't learned to avoid turning fights..

 

[Gillan1220]

A large carrier vs carrier battle will probably occur earlier ITTL. The U.S. would still declare war on Japan because I presume the Japanese would still attack the Philippines, Guam, and Wake as per OTL alongside their offensives in Southeast Asia.

There would be no USS Arizona memorial for sure.

 

[Garrison]

Another possibility The USS Ward's report is taken seriously and Pearl Harbour goes on alert, so when the radar contact with the Japanese aircraft is made later the fighters are scrambled into action.

 

[SwampTiger]

The loss of ships' crews, cruisers and aircraft were the major results of the attack. More crews results in useful ships having better trained crews. The USN suffered from lack of adequate numbers of cruisers early in the war. Many of the obsolescent aircraft destroyed on the ground were still useful out in the central Pacific, Even P36s were viable in India/Burma until 1943, and weren't retired by the RAF until 1944. Australia would have loved such aircraft in 1941/2.

 

[jlckansas]

What does the Kido Butai loose besides aircraft? Remember the destroyers are really close to running out of fuel and might have to be scuttled if they run out. If they have some bad accidents with damaged aircraft landing you could loose a deck or two, depending on damage, for up to 6 months. In the planning stage they also expected to loose 2 or more CV’s in this operation.

Additional
If they sortie the fleet south because 1. It’s the expected direction of attack and 2. US command thinks it is a reciprical bearing because it is from the North. There would be a lot more ships surviving.

 

[Mort the Reaper]

Forget the "sleeping giant" quote*, Yamamoto's response would probably be a blunt "kuso".

*Yes, I know it's apocryphal.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

An easy way to save a lot damage would be for the USN to have placed torpedo nets and some barrage balloons when they were issued the war warning.

 

[King Augeas]

What if the torpedos all miss, fail to detonate, or hit well protected/non-critical/easily repaired parts of the ships?

How screwed is Japan in TL where America has its full Pacific fleet from the get go?

About as screwed as OTL?

Meaning that Malaya, the DEI and the Philippines are still screwed, and the USN still has to build new carriers and the fleet train required to defeat the IJN...

There'll be differences in detail, sure, most probably around the SW Pacific, but the duration and general course of the war might be pretty similar.

 

[SwampTiger]

The Kido Butai loses pilots and 'face' along with aircraft.

The threat to Guam and Midway, possible Wake is lessened. Reinforcements to these islands and the East Asian flotilla are available. More aircraft are available. Thus, an early break for American and Allied forces.

 

[NHBL]

If there were torpedo nets, then the Japanese would most likely know, and change plans accordingly. They are not total idiots, though some of their plans were less than brilliant.
Did the bombers have alternate targets in the event that there were no ships worth hitting?
If the fleet was able to sortie and evade, good bye Pennsylvania!

 

[jlckansas]

If there were torpedo nets, then the Japanese would most likely know, and change plans accordingly. They are not total idiots, though some of their plans were less than brilliant.
Did the bombers have alternate targets in the event that there were no ships worth hitting?
If the fleet was able to sortie and evade, good bye Pennsylvania!

Having initiative was not looked upon a a good trait for lower ranking pilots. If the plan said attack these ships here, even if they were sinking or sunk you still attacked them if you did not have orders to attack something else.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

If there were torpedo nets, then the Japanese would most likely know, and change plans accordingly. They are not total idiots, though some of their plans were less than brilliant.
Did the bombers have alternate targets in the event that there were no ships worth hitting?
If the fleet was able to sortie and evade, good bye Pennsylvania!

Still if torpedo nets are in place they will prevent a fair bit of damage especially if around a hundred barrage balloons make the straight paths required for accurate level bombing difficult are in place

 

[OldNavy1988]

But if Pearl Harbor failed, does the US still go to war?