WI: Pearl Harbor Was Foiled

I have always wondered what Lieutenant Kermit A. Tyler's response would have been if that flight of B-17's was not scheduled to arrive until Monday morning, 8 December 1942. Who would he have called?

Exactly which HQ was Tyler standing watch in? I'm guessing the Army Air Corps CP for Oahu, but could be wrong.

The other question is why did that flight of B-17 leave California Saturday evening? Why did they not wait until Monday morning to begin the flight?

The flight schedules were not made with weekends in mind.
 
Exactly which HQ was Tyler standing watch in? I'm guessing the Army Air Corps CP for Oahu, but could be wrong.
At the time he was the OIC of the Pearl Harbour Intercept Centre. He was later cleared after it was discovered he had minimal training, no supervision, and only a couple of barely trained radar operators to work with. In addition, IIRC the station was supposed to have been shut down at the time, but they kept it running after learning that the breakfast truck would be late, to get in a bit more training.
 
At the time he was the OIC of the Pearl Harbour Intercept Centre. ...

Any number of Air Corps officers he could have called. On PI a Colonel was in charge of the radar stations & rest of the air tracking/warning system. IIRC @ Pananma there was a Brigadier & a intercept center for each side of the Zone. There was a staff, who all were little better or less experienced than Tyler. Even if any of those had answered the phone there same problem existed with the pursuit group and squadrons. The HQ offices were manned by junior officers, few pilots were in their quarters, ground crew had to be rousted out, and all the pursuit planes the Army had at hand had slow climb rates. A warning from Tyler to the antiaircraft artillery command would have been to the same assortment of Lts or maybe a Captain in a deserted office building. Once he was convinced to take action then the gun and director crews had to be gotten to their stations and weapons readied. Probablly more realistic to think the AA units ready in 40 minutes than the pursuit squadrons. Getting the Navy alerted was equally problematic, tho 25% of the ships crews were on watch anyway and those not on liberty were sleeping only a few meters from their stations.
 

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
Firstly.

The USSAF would've been ineffective anyway, even with a few hours warning. Unbelievably most P-40's etc stationed at Hickham and at other bases were grounded due to having their .50 inch guns removed and serviced ALL AT THE SAME TIME! so would have been cannon fodder for the IJN pilots.

Secondly.

Having the fleet stationed just off Hawaii would've have cost the US the war in one stroke. Not only would the IJN have easily found the Carriers and their escorts just because of the number of ships involved making being spotted easier, but because of better tactics and aircraft compared to the USN aircraft (A5M's vs Buffalo's & Widcat's), you're looking at the USN possibly loosing all 3 of their carriers in one go.

Because the USN Fleet was parked up in Pearl Harbour and is pretty shallow, most ships that sank where refloated, repaired and put back into service plus most men who where on attacked ships that then caught fire and sunk just jumped over the side and swam to the harbour wall to be rescued, thus compared to the damage done (apart from the USS Arizona), there was a camparitively low loss rate of personnel.

If the fleet had been in deeper waters off Hawaii, most personnel would've have proberly gone down with their ships or died waiting to be rescued so you're looking at around 10,000 plus fatalities.

Regards filers.
 
The HQ offices were manned by junior officers, few pilots were in their quarters, ground crew had to be rousted out, and all the pursuit planes the Army had at hand had slow climb rates.

P-36A 2600ft/Minute to 10,000 feet
P-40B 3070ft/Minute to 10,000 feet

A6M2 Zero 3317 to 10,000 feet
Spitfire II 2985 to 10,000 feet
Hurricane II 2510 to 10,000 feet
ME-109E 3382 to 10,000 feet
I-16 Type 5 2790 to 10,000 feet

Don't know about being all that slow
 
Firstly.

The USSAF would've been ineffective anyway, even with a few hours warning. Unbelievably most P-40's etc stationed at Hickham and at other bases were grounded due to having their .50 inch guns removed and serviced ALL AT THE SAME TIME! so would have been cannon fodder for the IJN pilots.

Secondly.

Having the fleet stationed just off Hawaii would've have cost the US the war in one stroke. Not only would the IJN have easily found the Carriers and their escorts just because of the number of ships involved making being spotted easier, but because of better tactics and aircraft compared to the USN aircraft (A5M's vs Buffalo's & Widcat's), you're looking at the USN possibly loosing all 3 of their carriers in one go.

Because the USN Fleet was parked up in Pearl Harbour and is pretty shallow, most ships that sank where refloated, repaired and put back into service plus most men who where on attacked ships that then caught fire and sunk just jumped over the side and swam to the harbour wall to be rescued, thus compared to the damage done (apart from the USS Arizona), there was a camparitively low loss rate of personnel.

If the fleet had been in deeper waters off Hawaii, most personnel would've have proberly gone down with their ships or died waiting to be rescued so you're looking at around 10,000 plus fatalities.

Regards filers.

Except a lot of the P-40s in Hawaii were P-40Bs with four .30s and two .50s so they could have fought with their .30s. In fact, that is exactly what Taylor and Welch did and they got six or seven Japanese planes between the two of them. I doubt a larger number of USAAF fighters in the air would have matched the success rate of those two but the pilots would have been more than simple cannon fodder.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I suppose it would not be implausible to have an ATL where the IJN attack on PH not only fails but the IJN also suffers substantial looses. What would happen then, not at least in Berlin? Without the OTL stunning succes of PH, and we're still months away from taking Singapore, will it still be seen as an opportunity to declare war on USA?

Seen from late 1941 it appeared obvious that USA sooner or later would join the British, just like in WWI, and the OTL events at PH could be seen as an opportunity to engage USA while it was weakest. I guess Hitler hoped for some kind of separate peace with the "decadent and soft Americans that obviously had no idea of modern warfare". But if PH actually points to the opposite - and the IJN is seriously weakened - is it really an opportunity to engage USA? I know not declaring war will not necessarily remove the possibility of USA joining UK, but if you can postpone it you can at least hope to have a decision in the east before the Americans turn up in strength in the west - would there really be any reason to declare war in this ATL?
 
P-36A 2600ft/Minute to 10,000 feet
P-40B 3070ft/Minute to 10,000 feet

A6M2 Zero 3317 to 10,000 feet
Spitfire II 2985 to 10,000 feet
Hurricane II 2510 to 10,000 feet
ME-109E 3382 to 10,000 feet
I-16 Type 5 2790 to 10,000 feet

Don't know about being all that slow

From what I remember, the P-40's climb rate fell off dramatically above 15,000 feet since it didn't have a turbo-supercharger. It took something like 20-25 minutes to reach 20,000 feet. It's high altitude performance was very poor.
 
Neither of the listed aircraft (post #65) was with turbo-supercharger. IJN bombers rarely went above 15000 ft anyway.
The P-40 can be flown without rear tank filled when in air-defence role, that helps with rate of climb and all-around maneuverability. Quirk is that all, yes all interceptors require a good air-defence network if results are expected.
 
From what I remember, the P-40's climb rate fell off dramatically above 15,000 feet since it didn't have a turbo-supercharger. It took something like 20-25 minutes to reach 20,000 feet. It's high altitude performance was very poor.

Single stage, single speed supercharger on those two Curtiss fighters, along with the Polikarpov, that didn't get a two speed unit till the type 18

A single stage, single speed blower like those were more efficient: used less horsepower to make its boost than a two speed unit did when shifted to 'Low'

But they did run out of boost around 14k, so performance dropped off rapidly. But not as bad as you think, the P-40B took 12 minutes to get to 25k

Now the far heavier P-40D, it took 19.42 minutes, though its time to 10k wasn't that much different than the B model, 3.88 minutes vs 3.35

Now had development of the P-36 continued as a radial than to the Allison and the P-40, it's likely that the two speed Pratt & Whitney R-1830-76 would have been fitted
 
couple of things:
1. The expected direction of attack by the Japanese was from the Southwest toward their bases, Truk, Eniwetok, and Kwajalein. According to the intelligence that was going to be the direction they came from.
2. War warning weariness. You get put on alert enough and nothing happens you don't take them seriously.
3. Guam and points west were specifically expected to be attacked according to the current intelligence estimates.
4. B17 were expected. No one was expecting anything else from that direction, when your radar shows a large formation of aircraft and you are expecting a large group of your own planes, this is before IFF remember, you think they are yours.
5. And above all else it is still PEACETIME. No war has been declared. Look how much was still done like it was peacetime after PH, you took Sunday off during peacetime.
 
not with those torpedos

three of the subs present on the 7th were the older V boats, that had the WWI era Torpedoes that worked, two of which had the first TDC 'computer' installed, the Mk I.
One modern fleet boat was in harbor on the 7th, with 6 more on patrol in Hawaiian waters.
 
Single stage, single speed supercharger on those two Curtiss fighters, along with the Polikarpov, that didn't get a two speed unit till the type 18
A single stage, single speed blower like those were more efficient: used less horsepower to make its boost than a two speed unit did when shifted to 'Low'
But they did run out of boost around 14k, so performance dropped off rapidly. But not as bad as you think, the P-40B took 12 minutes to get to 25k
Now the far heavier P-40D, it took 19.42 minutes, though its time to 10k wasn't that much different than the B model, 3.88 minutes vs 3.35

All fine, but the bolded part.
The two-speed supercharged engine will produce more power in lower altitudes (= supercharger gear in 'low' position) than a single-speed 'highly supercharged' equivalent, it's only gear ('speed') being equal to the 'high' gear of the 2-speed S/C-harged engine. Reason being that S/C will drain less power, since it is turing at lower speed. We know that some engines have had 3-speed superchargers, like Jumo 213E/F, and we could also call the gearing on the 2-stage R-2800s as having 3-speeds (aux stage being off, then in low gear, then in high gear); the late developments of the Griffon were also tested with 3-speed gearing. Plus, there were DB engines with infinite number of speeds (601/603/605), due to the variable speed of the S/C, and Allison used similar drive for auxiliary stage on it's 2-stage supercharged engines.
There was plenty of low-geared Merlins installed in Fulmars, Seafires and Barracudas - the Merlin III and 45, 50, let alone 46/47 ('fully supercharged') were simply not as good down low as Mk. VIII, 30 or 32 ('medium supercharged'). That is before we talk about the Merlins with 'cropped' supercharger's impeller (45M, 50M).

The P-40D have had greater take off and military power than the P-40/B/C (1150 HP vs. 1040), that helped fighting the increasing weight untlil, indeed, 14k ft.

Now had development of the P-36 continued as a radial than to the Allison and the P-40, it's likely that the two speed Pratt & Whitney R-1830-76 would have been fitted

Indeed.
Though, such a P-36 would've been slower than P-40 at any altitude, especially under 10k ft.
 
P-36A 2600ft/Minute to 10,000 feet
P-40B 3070ft/Minute to 10,000 feet

A6M2 Zero 3317 to 10,000 feet
Spitfire II 2985 to 10,000 feet
Hurricane II 2510 to 10,000 feet
ME-109E 3382 to 10,000 feet
I-16 Type 5 2790 to 10,000 feet

Don't know about being all that slow

Yer right there, the Japanese attack was low & moderate level.
 
...
Having the fleet stationed just off Hawaii would've have cost the US the war in one stroke. Not only would the IJN have easily found the Carriers and their escorts just because of the number of ships involved making being spotted easier, but because of better tactics and aircraft compared to the USN aircraft (A5M's vs Buffalo's & Widcat's), you're looking at the USN possibly loosing all 3 of their carriers in one go.

This seems to assume the US admirals were stupid. That they would place the ships close where they could be easily found, and make no effort to provide a CAP. or attempt to intercept the attack. The mostly likely assembly point for the fleet was south east of Hawaii & over the horizon from Oahu. Close enough to provide fighter cover & far enough reconissance will have to be made to spot it. The US carrier were else where that morning. But, assuming one or more joined the fleet then that gives a local radar warning, and direction for the CAP.

...
Having the fleet stationed just off Hawaii would've have cost the US the war in one stroke. ....

This is absurd. The US won the Pacific war with a fleet that largely did not exist in Dec 1941. The Essex class carriers, the CVE, the modern classes of battleships, the many classes of support ships in the fleet train, were for the most part not even launched let alone worked up at the end of 1941.
 

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
This seems to assume the US admirals were stupid. That they would place the ships close where they could be easily found, and make no effort to provide a CAP. or attempt to intercept the attack. The mostly likely assembly point for the fleet was south east of Hawaii & over the horizon from Oahu. Close enough to provide fighter cover & far enough reconissance will have to be made to spot it. The US carrier were else where that morning. But, assuming one or more joined the fleet then that gives a local radar warning, and direction for the CAP.



This is absurd. The US won the Pacific war with a fleet that largely did not exist in Dec 1941. The Essex class carriers, the CVE, the modern classes of battleships, the many classes of support ships in the fleet train, were for the most part not even launched let alone worked up at the end of 1941.

I agree, but the fleet that won the war in the Pacific needed to be built in the first place. How long does it take to build aircraft carriers etc. The time this took, if Pearl Harbour was more successful it meant that Japan would have free reign to do what they want for around 12 to 18 months (Yamato's own quote). That was the premise behind the attack on Pearl Harbour in the first place, to give Japan breathing space to conquer South East Asia.

Regards filers.
 
I agree, but the fleet that won the war in the Pacific needed to be built in the first place. How long does it take to build aircraft carriers etc. The time this took, if Pearl Harbour was more successful it meant that Japan would have free reign to do what they want for around 12 to 18 months (Yamato's own quote). That was the premise behind the attack on Pearl Harbour in the first place, to give Japan breathing space to conquer South East Asia.

Still ends in Atomic Flame.
In 1942, the B-36 was put on low priority.

A Pacific War that went worse for the USA means its accelerated.

So in the ATL, a nearly untouched Tokyo gets nuked, followed by Nagoya then Osaka. In September, 4 more cities disappear in fire.
Lather, Rinse, Repeat.
 
I agree, but the fleet that won the war in the Pacific needed to be built in the first place. How long does it take to build aircraft carriers etc. The time this took, if Pearl Harbour was more successful it meant that Japan would have free reign to do what they want for around 12 to 18 months (Yamato's own quote). That was the premise behind the attack on Pearl Harbour in the first place, to give Japan breathing space to conquer South East Asia.

Regards filers.

How many more ships are the Japanese going to sink? Part of the problem is the mythology that has grown up around the Pearl Harbor attack that it sank "the entire US Pacific Fleet" or other such nonsense. OTL they sank or damaged a grand total of 18 ships and that includes a target ship (Utah) and an old minelayer (Oglala). Then you have the eight old battleships sunk or damaged. After that it was only eight more ships that took damage including two destroyers that were written off. In other words the vast majority of the fleet was untouched.

This was against a fleet sitting fat, dumb, and happy in port - stationary targets. If the fleet is at sea with room to maneuver some of the ships that were sunk in shallow water will be permanent losses but others will not get damaged at all or only lightly damaged because they are maneuvering targets not stationary targets so I highly doubt the fleet being at sea ends up in that many more permanent losses and if involves more permanent losses, it will likely be among the old battleships because the pilots will go after the capital ships first. Cruiser and destroyers losses are probably still pretty minimal.
 
... if Pearl Harbour was more successful it meant that Japan would have free reign to do what they want for around 12 to 18 months (Yamato's own quote). That was the premise behind the attack on Pearl Harbour in the first place, to give Japan breathing space to conquer South East Asia.

....

Where do you get that quote from? Costello in his 'The Pacific War' cites a letter from Yamamoto to another naval officer that estimates 'six months'. That span matches the reserves of bunker fuel of the IJN, which were largely exhausted by the end of June 1942. After that the residue at Truk, Singapore, Rabaul, the Dutch East Indies, home islands, ect... were insufficient to get the full battle fleet to sea for any sort of sustained campaign. The operations that were conducted, mostly in the S Pacific, were run off current production/deliveries from the refineries (still being repaired) and scraping the bottom of the barrels. Thats why the heavy battleships like the Yamoto sat in Truk or other harbors while the light Kongo class were shot to pieces off Guadalcanal.

Some industrial resources, like scrap iron, or coal had been stockpiled to twelve or 18 months supply, before the Pacific war, but for critical items like ships fuel there was little more than six months worth. Whatever Yamamotos opinion prewar the material at had meant the US had to be forced to negotiate peace by the end of summer.
 
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