WI: Pearl Harbor Was Foiled

The USNs best bet assuming enough lead time following a concise warning is to GTFO and head ESE under land based air cover - await the carriers and then review the situation.

Haring off north at 18-20 knots is going to end badly

Meanwhile Pearl batons down the hatches and stands too with its airpower fuelled and armed!

What is likely to happen is the IJN realise that they have been rumbled and are likely to bottle it and turn back - but the cat is out of the bag and possibly the declaration of war already sent to the Japanese Embassy (and already decoded by the US)

What ever happens the whole thing is a Casus belli and effectively places both nations at war - even without a shot being fired - after all - a IJN carrier fleet being that close to Pearl has but one purpose
 
I read a magazine called sea classic almost 18 years ago where someone wrote about this and that on the morning December 7, 1941 the radar on Opara point picked up the first incoming airstrike. The operators, Privates George Elliot Jr. and Joseph Lockard, reported a target. But Lieutenant Kermit A. Tyler, a newly assigned officer at the thinly manned Intercept Center, presumed it was the scheduled arrival of six B-17 bombers from California. The Japanese planes were approaching from a direction very close (only a few degrees difference) to the bombers, and while the operators had never seen a formation as large on radar, they neglected to tell Tyler of its size. Tyler, for security reasons, could not tell the operators of the six B-17s that were due (even though it was widely known). If the operators would have told the size to Tyler, then things would have been diferrent. Tyler would have informed to his superiors about this and maybe the fighters would have been scramble. Also seeing this the fleet would be on red alert. Then maybe things would have gone diferrently.
 
Actually, all It might take is someone listening to the radar post that picked up the Japanese strike force at least an hour outside of Oahu. They were told 'oh, it must be the B-17 Flight arriving early' (because direction finding in those early radars was pretty limited) and so it never got any higher than the Lt. in charge of the radar. If acted upon instead, there is enough time for ships to make steam, AA guns to be manned and fighters to get aloft
 
If the USN fleet is removed and the base alerted, is there a chance the IJN calls off the raid. Then we have no declaration of war by the US? But Malaya will still happen, as it's too late to turn the IJA back.
 

Deleted member 94680

What's the source?
... snip ...
Details and credibility of the information determine the levels of response (if any).

There's always been rumours the British were aware of the Japanese intent to attack. They either passed the Intel on and were ignored or FDR didn't act as he wanted the casus belli depending on how out-there you like your conspiracy theories to be. Maybe have one of those to be POD'd and make the Intel acted upon?

An actual sortie of the fleet leaving Pearl Harbor would result in a worse result as it would mean more loss of life and less likely to refloat the ships.

How do you figure that? If the fleet is out of Pearl, they can take evasive action. If they can take evasive action, the chances of being hit are drastically reduced. In 1941, air-to-ship attacks were in their infancy, what made Toranto and Pearl so effective OTL was that the fleets attacked were at harbour.
 
If the USN fleet is removed and the base alerted, is there a chance the IJN calls off the raid. Then we have no declaration of war by the US? But Malaya will still happen, as it's too late to turn the IJA back.
I'm not sure that the Japanese attack on the Philippines can be called off in time. Given that both Hawaii and the Philippines were U.S. controlled at the time, albeit with a schedule for Philippine independence, I'm not sure that the vote in Congress to declare war is much different.
 
mattIII the results wouldn't have been much different if everything had gone smoothly in the philippines and the attack order was given at 05:00. the 2 bomber squadrons from clark would have arrived over tgt to find empty airfields and more than likely have met the returning japanese fighters somewhere west of luzon straits. the 2 squadrons from del monte would have arrived at clark in time to bear the brunt of the attack there. all the fighters had spent the morning(since before sunrise) chasing various indications of enemy aircraft and were in the process of refueling/preparing for the next mission or low on fuel returning to base(3sqn/Iba). AAC pilots and equipment were just not ready to face IJN same. IJAAF same is a different matter.
 
mattIII the results wouldn't have been much different if everything had gone smoothly in the philippines and the attack order was given at 05:00. the 2 bomber squadrons from clark would have arrived over tgt to find empty airfields and more than likely have met the returning japanese fighters somewhere west of luzon straits. the 2 squadrons from del monte would have arrived at clark in time to bear the brunt of the attack there. all the fighters had spent the morning(since before sunrise) chasing various indications of enemy aircraft and were in the process of refueling/preparing for the next mission or low on fuel returning to base(3sqn/Iba). AAC pilots and equipment were just not ready to face IJN same. IJAAF same is a different matter.

Not really. If the bomber squadrons had attack Taiwan, they would have encounter bad weather. The japanese air force attacked around 12:30 pm due to the fact of climate. The american bomber would have caught the japanese on the ground. Now that would have change the out come of the Philippines. Remember in real timeline the japanese had slaughter the american air force on the first day so after that japan controlled all the air space of the philippines.
 
There's always been rumours the British were aware of the Japanese intent to attack. They either passed the Intel on and were ignored or FDR didn't act as he wanted the casus belli depending on how out-there you like your conspiracy theories to be. Maybe have one of those to be POD'd and make the Intel acted upon?
QUOTE]

One of Britain's 'double-agents' was sent to the US with questions he had been asked to find info on - regarding Pearl Harbor. Was he taken seriously at all!? No, Hoover, took an instant dislike of me and any significance of the 'questions' was either just not picked upon, or treated with disdain.
However, in the unlikely event that Britain/Churchill had more time critical information, the reaction could be just like Stalin's - perfidious Albion dragging us into their wars!!
 
If the USN fleet is removed and the base alerted, is there a chance the IJN calls off the raid. Then we have no declaration of war by the US? ...

The Japanese had already issued their DoW That was to occur with or with out the Oahu attack. So the US is at war if Congress does not vote for a DoW.
 
mattIII the results wouldn't have been much different if everything had gone smoothly in the philippines and the attack order was given at 05:00. the 2 bomber squadrons from clark would have arrived over tgt to find empty airfields and more than likely have met the returning japanese fighters somewhere west of luzon straits. the 2 squadrons from del monte would have arrived at clark in time to bear the brunt of the attack there. all the fighters had spent the morning(since before sunrise) chasing various indications of enemy aircraft and were in the process of refueling/preparing for the next mission or low on fuel returning to base(3sqn/Iba). AAC pilots and equipment were just not ready to face IJN same. IJAAF same is a different matter.
Yeah, but at least if they'd had the bombers up they could have hit the airbase infrastructure and aircraft in the air aren't half as vulnerable as aircraft on the ground. Seriously, Macarthur should have been crucified for what he did, not Kimmel or Short.
 
There's always been rumours the British were aware of the Japanese intent to attack. They either passed the Intel on and were ignored or FDR didn't act as he wanted the casus belli depending on how out-there you like your conspiracy theories to be. Maybe have one of those to be POD'd and make the Intel acted upon?

Well the Brits keep things secret a lot longer than most folks. So as unlikely as it is there could be some memo locked away that proves they with held something. The rumors seem to be based on a flurry of messages the British were sending about after their air recon spotted the Malaysian invasion fleet heading south the previous day, and their signals interception stations issued warnings. One of those messages was sent directly to Roosevelt. It described the recon report on the Japanese fleet headed south from IndoChina. Roosevelt correctly concluded the Japanese intended to attack Malaysia with that fleet, and directed a fresh war warning be sent to all US military commands in the Pacific. As we know that was delivered hours late.
 
What about a patrol submarine? I'm not familiar with the USN's sub ops at the time; could a USN patrol sub stumble upon the incoming IJN fleet? If so, then what?
 
What about a patrol submarine? I'm not familiar with the USN's sub ops at the time; could a USN patrol sub stumble upon the incoming IJN fleet? If so, then what?

There were a relatively small number base at Oahu. Nothing like the 30 boat fleet based at Subic Bay PI. If any were on patrol odds are they would have been to the South West. The US had judged that the most likely direction a attack would come from as the nearest Japanese naval base. Truk, lay in that direction.

Previous orders issued in late November directed that any Japanese warships or military aircraft sighted should be considered hostile and attack on them was authorized. This was much the same as the 'Shoot on sight' order given to the Atlantic fleet months earlier concerning German warships. It was the basis for the standing orders to the anti submarine patrol that attacked the Japanese subs near the channel entry 7 Dec. So, yes a US submarine skipper spotting the Japanese carriers on the 6th or 7th December could attack.
 
Displayed is Battle Order #2 issued by the Captain of the Enterprise for the Wake Island aircraft ferry mission in late November. Section 'a.' contains the meat of it. "..Be ready to open fire without hesitation should suspicious contacts be made." Section 'b.' confirms war time doctrine is in place. Section 'c.' reiterates the first two in the specific case of submarines. Section 'd.' repeats again for the case of aircraft. Paragrah 2. makes it clear the officer of the deck or others are not to dither about and kick a decision upstairs to the Captain. They are to Shoot, Fire, Attack, that is take imeadiate action.

I expect that were any subs on patrol some sort of similar order would have been given the skipper.
Battle Order #2.jpg
 
The USNs best bet assuming enough lead time following a concise warning is to GTFO and head ESE under land based air cover - await the carriers and then review the situation.

Haring off north at 18-20 knots is going to end badly

Meanwhile Pearl batons down the hatches and stands too with its airpower fuelled and armed!

What is likely to happen is the IJN realise that they have been rumbled and are likely to bottle it and turn back - but the cat is out of the bag and possibly the declaration of war already sent to the Japanese Embassy (and already decoded by the US)

....

Nagumos orders were to continue the attack if suprise were lost. He did have the option to modify the attack plan in that case, but he was still to attack.
 
Not really. If the bomber squadrons had attack Taiwan, they would have encounter bad weather. The japanese air force attacked around 12:30 pm due to the fact of climate. The american bomber would have caught the japanese on the ground. Now that would have change the out come of the Philippines. Remember in real timeline the japanese had slaughter the american air force on the first day so after that japan controlled all the air space of the philippines.
G3Ms T/O at 8:20, G4Ms at 9:30 it's about 3.5 hour trip for b17 clark to takao, so the (only)16 b17s would have to be fueled, bombed up, ammo loaded, crews briefed (all done after 5:00) in the air and on the way by 6:00 to even have a chance of finding anything on the ground, ---(for MattIII)not taking account of bombing from 20-30 thousand feet(u.s. bomber doctrine). either way, bomber command is going to lose half their strength. tell vt-8 how much safer it is in the air.
 
I'm sorry, I didn't realise "we might not achieve much" means "we should wait around to be destroyed". No, Kimmel and Short, with no direction, got crucified, while Dugout Doug somehow got away scot-free for an even bigger screw-up. In addition, the lack of and CAP is telling.
 
I'm sorry, I didn't realise "we might not achieve much" means "we should wait around to be destroyed". No, Kimmel and Short, with no direction, got crucified, while Dugout Doug somehow got away scot-free for an even bigger screw-up. In addition, the lack of and CAP is telling.
it's telling you that the squadron that was to be cap couldn't take off because of thick haze, and when AWS was informed, another sqn was sent in its place. no one was 'not doing anything because not much would be achieved' and no one was waiting around to be destroyed. the fighters had been active since before dawn. the bombers were trying to get ready for a mission. in a sense, they were having the same problem nagumo had 7 months later.
 
PH had happened 7 hours earlier, they had better codebreaking resources, and a war-warning that predicted an attack.

Also, they had plenty of CAP, three squadrons at one point, but it was mismanaged, so there was only a handful of aircraft up when the Japanese came in. In addition, although the raids were spotted on radar 130 miles out, the communication network was so bad that Japanese actually achieved tactical surprise when they arrived over Henderson Field. Sorry but no, Mac screwed up badly and should have been pilloried for the loss, both of those aircraft, and indeed of the Philippines.
 
Last edited:
Top