WI Pearl Harbor: Japan Times It Right

So I watched Tora, Tora, Tora! for the first time a few days ago (review in short: it's boring, insanely stiff for something made in 1970, and the whitewashing/hero worship of Yammamoto is off the charts), and was struck by how the Japanese (apparently, options differ) planned to deliver the U.S. a declaration of war, than strike at Pearl a half hour later (the film makes a great deal of Yammamoto, and by proxy Hirohito, insisting on this point). Supposedly the DoW was delayed because the typist was slow, and it wasn't delicered until the raid on Pearl Harbor was already underway/competed.

Now, I've heard it (somewhat convincingly) argued that Japan always planned to strike without a DoW, but for the sake of argument let's assume that it really was the typists fault. What happens if the Japanese had gotten the timing right, and had declared war on the U.S. immediately before the raid on Pearl had commenced? Would the U.S. be as "filled with a terrible resolve", as Yammamoto (apocraphyly) put it? How does this affect the rest of the war?
 
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jahenders

Banned
Assuming it WAS a DOW and got delivered (to DC) an hour before the attack, it would have little effect on the battle. It would have taken 10-30 minutes to get the message to Hawaii with verification and more time to get to the fleet. The fact that Kimmel was unavailable would further delay things.

So, best case, the fleet gets 30 minutes to get ready, but even then, it's a DOW, NOT a warning of immediate attack. It's uncertain what, if anything, the fleet would do IMMEDIATELY. It might allow some more planes to get aloft or even get a couple destroyers moving to patrol. Little effect on the battle.

Politically, it softens the anger at the Japanese a TINY bit and weakens FDR's talking points a tad, but we still go to war aggressively.

The one effect it MIGHT have is that it might make it possible for us to focus MORE (than IOTL) on a Germany-first strategy, delaying/reducing efforts in the Pacific.
 
I don't think if the japanese hand the message in time would make any difference, once the war started the propaganda will say anything is needs to portray the japanese as the most evil and traitorous and inferior subhuman rats and whatever else it was actually done during the war. It won't have any significant effect even if the message is a clear and simple "from now on we are at war with you". I think the fact that the message being late had any effect on the "american resolve" is just a legend. Certainly it was a detail used for propaganda purposes ("those little yellow bastards attacked us with no warning" etc.), but if wasn't that they would just find something else.
 
I'd had thought that, while it wasn't a literal "Japan declares war on the U.S.", it was enough that they felt they would be covered by the Geneva Convention.

Though it's not as if they felt strongly obliged to observe the Geneva Convention at any point during the rest of the war.
 
Though it's not as if they felt strongly obliged to observe the Geneva Convention at any point during the rest of the war.

Oh yeah, obviously. The movie (for those who haven't seen it) really goes out of its way to play up how much Yamamoto and Hirohito wanted to "play by the rules", to the point of having the characters literally say that. Considering that those sections were directed by Japanese directors, it's not surprising, but it is a little disheartening.
 
Besides, the US DID know the content of the message before Pearl - their decoders were faster than the Japanese ones.:)

Still wasn't a DoW. A real DoW was highly unlikely given the Japanese political situation. And the US still didn't believe that Pearl would be attacked by carriers.

So. Not a whole lot of difference in any realistic scenario.
 
Given only thirty minutes to prepare, I doubt the US public wouldn't still see the attack as anything less than a sneak attack.
 
Japanese Note to the United States United States December 7 said:
Thus, the earnest hope of the Japanese Government to adjust Japanese-American relations and to preserve and promote the peace of the Pacific through cooperation with the American Government has finally been lost.

The Japanese Government regrets to have to notify hereby the American Government that in view of the attitude of the American Government it cannot but consider that it is impossible to reach an agreement through further negotiations.

The note the Japanese sent ends with this and is preceded by rambling on about their desire for peace and misunderstanding of Japanese true intentions by the Chinese, the British and the US governments. Furthermore, it links the Japanese 'desire for peace' with establishing the New Order in Europe (why did they feel necessary to add this?!?).

While the bolded part can be interpreted as 'declaration of war' I think that would only be the case if Empire of Japan and the USA had an existing conflict regarding the US territory. Since they were mostly negotiating on resolving the Chinese issue, affecting US interests indirectly, the announcement of breaking off negotiations, US government can only assumed to lead to further war against China.
 
Kung Fucious said:
boring, insanely stiff
:eek::eek::eek::confused::confused: It's the most accurate & honest portrayal of the events ever made.
Kung Fucious said:
the Japanese (apparently, options differ) planned to deliver the U.S. a declaration of war, than strike at Pearl a half hour later (the film makes a great deal of Yammamoto, and by proxy Hirohito, insisting on this point).
"Opinions differ"? Not, AFAIK, from anybody who actually knows what he's talking about.:rolleyes:
Kung Fucious said:
Supposedly the DoW was delayed because the typist was slow, and it wasn't delicered until the raid on Pearl Harbor was already underway/competed.
"Supposedly"? That's exactly what happened.

It wasn't a DoW, however, tho it's commonly called one. It was actually a note breaking off negotiations. (AFAIK, Yamamoto didn't know this. Certainly Nomura didn't know the 14th Part was going to immediately precede an attack.:eek::rolleyes:)
Kung Fucious said:
I've heard it (somewhat convincingly) argued that Japan always planned to strike without a DoW
They did, in fact, plan to, & did, in fact, do it. (The actual declaration, IIRC, was delivered the next day.:eek:)
Kung Fucious said:
What happens if the Japanese had gotten the timing right, and had declared war on the U.S. immediately before the raid on Pearl had commenced? Would the U.S. be as "filled with a terrible resolve", as Yammamoto (apocraphyly) put it? How does this affect the rest of the war?
Probably not much. Getting hit at Pearl Harbor was going to piss off the U.S. pretty nicely regardless.:rolleyes: Take a look at the Zimmerman telegram: no actual attack, even.
 
It wouldn't matter if Japan's DoW came just after it launches its attack. It'll still be considered a sneak attack without a proper DoW since it gave the US absolutely jack time to prepare.

In contrast, if the Japan did give the US time to prepare for their assault, it'd only accelerate their demise by a few months to a few years. Pearl Harbour probably would have ended very badly for the Japanese, if they still initiate the attack at all.
 

I mean, a films quality isn't judged by its accuracy. To mangle a Werner Herzog quote, a film of someone reading the phone book would be the most accurate film ever, but it'd be boring as hell. As for "Tora, Tora, Tora!", I thought it was super dry, flat, and dull. Literally every scene was just hats years sitting around talking, the cinematography was old-fashioned, and the editing fairly standard. If it had been made in the 50's/early 60's, I could forgive, but for a film made in the 70's its unforgivable. I mean, compare it to its contemporary "A Bridge Too Far" and you'll see what I mean. On top of that, I didn't care for the way the film bends over backwards to portray Yamamoto and (by proxy) the Emperor in a favorable light, painting decision to go to war as a handful of assholes like Tojo leading the country astray.

As for the question, going off Wikipedia I had read that Takeo Iguchi discovered that the fourteen part message (which could have been interpreted as a DoW) wasn't delayed by a slow typist, but was deliberately delayed, and that the Japanese government had never intended to preface the attack on Pearl with a DoW, and was just stalking for time.
 

burmafrd

Banned
I mean, a films quality isn't judged by its accuracy. To mangle a Werner Herzog quote, a film of someone reading the phone book would be the most accurate film ever, but it'd be boring as hell. As for "Tora, Tora, Tora!", I thought it was super dry, flat, and dull. Literally every scene was just hats years sitting around talking, the cinematography was old-fashioned, and the editing fairly standard. If it had been made in the 50's/early 60's, I could forgive, but for a film made in the 70's its unforgivable. I mean, compare it to its contemporary "A Bridge Too Far" and you'll see what I mean. On top of that, I didn't care for the way the film bends over backwards to portray Yamamoto and (by proxy) the Emperor in a favorable light, painting decision to go to war as a handful of assholes like Tojo leading the country astray.

As for the question, going off Wikipedia I had read that Takeo Iguchi discovered that the fourteen part message (which could have been interpreted as a DoW) wasn't delayed by a slow typist, but was deliberately delayed, and that the Japanese government had never intended to preface the attack on Pearl with a DoW, and was just stalking for time.

wiki is not considered a reliable source for anyone that cares.
 
A More Interesting Question

IMHO, the (not a) DOW is irrelevant to the US conduct of the war. US propagandists would spin it as a sneak attack in any event, given the widespread anti-Asiatic prejudice at the time.

When I saw the title, I thought the timing was of another sort -- if the Japanese had managed to catch (for whatever reason) the US carriers at Pearl and sink all of them.

Again, IMHO, it would only delay the end of the war by six months, given the US ability to churn out war material almost at will. More damaging would be the loss of experienced aircrews and combat officers.
 
IMHO, the (not a) DOW is irrelevant to the US conduct of the war. US propagandists would spin it as a sneak attack in any event, given the widespread anti-Asiatic prejudice at the time.

When I saw the title, I thought the timing was of another sort -- if the Japanese had managed to catch (for whatever reason) the US carriers at Pearl and sink all of them.

Again, IMHO, it would only delay the end of the war by six months, given the US ability to churn out war material almost at will. More damaging would be the loss of experienced aircrews and combat officers.

I mean, feel free to expand the question to include the Japanese catching the carriers in port/just outside Pearl. Its totally fine to basically re-jigger this to "Japan gets everything right at Pearl". So, not-quite-a-DoW is delivered on time (assuming they actually intended to deliver the message in the first place), the strike force catches the carriers, etc.
 
Forget for a minute when the 14th Part arrives, because the U.S. is gonna be pissed regardless.

If you mean to alter what time the attack arrives, but on the 7th, you've got a vanishingly small window of when it makes sense to launch.

If you mean to alter the date, but mean to keep Japan's plan to attack on a Sunday, any earlier is borderline ASB (& more than a week really is, if that's even possible); later, you're pushing limits on North Pacific weather making it impossible.

So, Japan either goes on (very nearly) the OTL schedule or not at all: into 1942, the fuel to do it is gone, or the IJA has persuaded Hirohito to tell Yamamoto to go screw,:rolleyes: & the CVs go to supporting the DEI ops. (What this does to Japan's war effort is hard to judge, but it's just possible the U.S. doesn't declare war at all...:eek: That's probably the best outcome Japan can hope for. It's also about the worst for Germany...:eek:)
 
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