WI: Peace on Lebanon - No Lebanese Civil War
- Thread starter Alexpira
- Start date
France is slightly smarter in the '20s and does population transfers. Syria's christians to lebanon, muslims to Syria.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Lebanon doesn't allow the PLO to set up shop within their borders in the late 60s and early 70s after Black September in Jordan, perhaps in cooperation between Tel Aviv and Beirut. That probably won't ease the tension between the other ethno-religious groups but maybe it won't erupt into open warfare?
Like Cuauthemoc said,
OTL The Lebanese Civil War was the result of a long series of miserable wars.
After 1850, Theodord Hertzel (and his Zionist buddies) started the first wave of Jewish settlers moving to Palestine. Initially they bought land from Palestinians. After WW2, Jewish survivors of the Nazi Holcaust emmigrated to Palestine by the thousands!
When Jews became numerous enough to found the State of Israel (late 1940s) neighbouring Arab nations converged in an (unsuccessful) attempt to crush the new nation.
As neighbouring Arab nations re-armed for a second war in 1967, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes to win the 6-day-war. During the 6-day-war, Israel conquered all of the West Bank of the Jordan River. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled to Jordan. The Palestinian Liberation Organization geurrilla raids into Israel. When the PLO threatened to overthrow the Hashemite Royal Family, the Jordanian Srmy expelled them.
The PLO, Hezbollah, etc. used their new bases in Lebanon to launch rockets and raids into Northern Israel. The immigration of so many thousand Palestinians upset the delicate balance between: Christian Phalangists, Muslims, Druze, etc. To further complicate the issue, departing French colonials had written a constitution that favoured French-speaking Christian Phalagists, but their birthrates had declined while Muslim birthrates increased until Muslims out-numbered Christians by 1960. Israel invaded Southern Lebanon a could of times to push PLO rocket launchers out of range of Northern Israel. The United Nations sent American and French troops to calm the civil war, but various factions merely paused to turn their artillery and truck bombs towards USMC.
Iran continued their thousands of years old tradition of meddling in Middle East politics by funding Hexbollah militants.
To prevent a Lebanese Civil War, we need to derail that series of miserable events.
Moderators: please delete Cuauhtemoc’s profane last paragraph.
OTL The Lebanese Civil War was the result of a long series of miserable wars.
After 1850, Theodord Hertzel (and his Zionist buddies) started the first wave of Jewish settlers moving to Palestine. Initially they bought land from Palestinians. After WW2, Jewish survivors of the Nazi Holcaust emmigrated to Palestine by the thousands!
When Jews became numerous enough to found the State of Israel (late 1940s) neighbouring Arab nations converged in an (unsuccessful) attempt to crush the new nation.
As neighbouring Arab nations re-armed for a second war in 1967, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes to win the 6-day-war. During the 6-day-war, Israel conquered all of the West Bank of the Jordan River. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled to Jordan. The Palestinian Liberation Organization geurrilla raids into Israel. When the PLO threatened to overthrow the Hashemite Royal Family, the Jordanian Srmy expelled them.
The PLO, Hezbollah, etc. used their new bases in Lebanon to launch rockets and raids into Northern Israel. The immigration of so many thousand Palestinians upset the delicate balance between: Christian Phalangists, Muslims, Druze, etc. To further complicate the issue, departing French colonials had written a constitution that favoured French-speaking Christian Phalagists, but their birthrates had declined while Muslim birthrates increased until Muslims out-numbered Christians by 1960. Israel invaded Southern Lebanon a could of times to push PLO rocket launchers out of range of Northern Israel. The United Nations sent American and French troops to calm the civil war, but various factions merely paused to turn their artillery and truck bombs towards USMC.
Iran continued their thousands of years old tradition of meddling in Middle East politics by funding Hexbollah militants.
To prevent a Lebanese Civil War, we need to derail that series of miserable events.
Moderators: please delete Cuauhtemoc’s profane last paragraph.
Lusitania
Donor
Even if we can get the Palestinians out of Lebanon in the 1970s. The Lebanese situation will become unstable in early 1980s due to Iran arming the Hezbollah. This will result in them demanding greater say and power in Lebanon. Following Iran’s lead they will become enemy of Israel and if they either attack or provide support for those who wish to attack Israel a international and civil war is possible.
A new National Pact or Constitution, with a more balanced approach to all religious groups, would be possible by 1960s / early 70s or is just ABS?
Lusitania
Donor
The biggest hurdle to any new negotiated pact would be the demand for greater role of muslim groups and the unwillingness of Christian groups to give up their power (at least not with a war)
thatsbunkers
Banned
Its not that simple for two reasons. Hezbollah was founded to fight the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon, no civil war no occupation of South Lebanon. Also Hezbollah could only become significant and well armed with a friendly Syria. Hafez al Assad was allied with Christian groups in Lebanon until the deadly siege of a Palestinian refugee camp. No war and Assad stays allied with the Christians so Hezbollah can't get arms through Syria.
Lusitania
Donor
Hezbollah was founded to fight Israel but the Iranian revolution did have a very big impact on Shiites and many were radicalized following Irsnisn revolution. While Assad was allied with the Christians. The expulsions of the Palestinian from Lebanon in the 70s either by Lebanese or with outside (no Israeli) will still leave a fragile peace in Lebanon and it only would take a small spark for the country to collapse into civil war.
thatsbunkers
Banned
Hezbollah, until 2011, at its core was an anti Israeli party. They had plenty of Sunni support until the Syrian civil war because Sunnis saw them as a protector against Israel not a Shia sectarian group. And a civil war with the Palestinians exiled and the Christians and Syrians allied would be a way shorter civil war, its clear who would win.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
UNRWA refugee camps and points of service as set up by the UN only within the confines of Egyptian ruled Gaza and the Jordanian ruled West Bank from 1949-1950 onward. Palestinian refugees who fled in other directions (Like Lebanon and Syria) either need to make it back to Jordan or Egypt to UNRWA camps to receive support, or assimilate in the Middle Eastern states they live in or take opportunities to emigrate. Palestinian refugees, especially the critical mass needed to form and support armed groups, never become numerous enough to become numerous enough to become a power factor in Lebanon.
Lusitania
Donor
Following the Palestinian failed overthrow of Jordan many of those armed fighter andctheir supporters fled to Lebanon though Syria. Their arrival was the spark that eventually led to Lebanese civil war, Syria intervention and Israel invasion.
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
I can't speak for the background and the build-up. Outside my area of expertise. All I can speak of is the three months I spent in Beirut in 1976 and the situation as it was then and there.
By 1976, the lines were drawn fairly clearly, and all sides were committing unspeakable acts against each other. External powers were ensuring that their particular favourite band was doing unto others with great gusto. No-one comes out of it with any credit, with arguably the possible single, solitary and unexpected exception of MI6.
This situation didn't arise from nowhere, and the fault lines were there before a rather nice place was turned into Hell, the second worse place I've ever seen for inhumanity. Stopping it arising would be a Good Thing; it's also going to be pretty hard to achieve. ASB level hard? I'm not sure, but it must be getting pretty close to it. The tensions there were always going to come out somehow.