WI/PC: United Anti-Russian Containment pre-1900

United Anti-Russian Containment pre-1900

  • Plausible

    Votes: 8 53.3%
  • Implausible

    Votes: 7 46.7%

  • Total voters
    15
640px-March_of_Russian_barbarity_and_cholera_epidemic_to_Europe_%28French_allegory%29.PNG


Seems to me that many Western Europeans of the 19th century had severe Russophobia went it came to the growing power of Imperial Russia.
For context, here are some musings from political writers of the time:

"In Russia, everything you notice, and everything that happens around you, has a terrifying uniformity; and the first thought that comes into the traveler's mind, as he contemplates this symmetry, is that such entire consistency and regularity, so contrary to the natural inclination of mankind, cannot have been achieved and could not survive without violence."

- Custine 1839

"I should rather prefer such an increase in the threatening attitude of Russia, that Europe would have to make up its mind to become equally threatening—namely to acquire one will, by means of a new caste to rule over the Continent, a persistent, dreadful will of its own, that can set its aims thousands of years ahead."

- Nietzsche 1886

The reign of Europe is over, well over… The future of France seems less certain but it is unnecessary to become illusioned… I do not believe by the way that Germany might count for a much longer future… We could… envisage… the possibility that England and her immense Empire comes to surrender to the United States. The latter… is the true adversary of Russia in the great struggle to come… I also believe that the United States is appealed to triumph. Otherwise, the universe would be Russian.

- Vacher de Lapouge 1899

● Given this, what's the plausibility that a popular campaign among western nations to contain Russian growth could've arisen in the 19th century?

● If plausible, what might it look like and what would be the effects for Western Europe and Russia if such a coalition were to form?

russianexpansion.gif
 
Last edited:
The reign of Europe is over, well over… The future of France seems less certain but it is unnecessary to become illusioned… I do not believe by the way that Germany might count for a much longer future… We could… envisage… the possibility that England and her immense Empire comes to surrender to the United States. The latter… is the true adversary of Russia in the great struggle to come… I also believe that the United States is appealed to triumph. Otherwise, the universe would be Russian.

- Vacher de Lapouge 1899

Wow.
That's such an accurate prediction of the Cold War it's almost scary.
 
The reign of Europe is over, well over… The future of France seems less certain but it is unnecessary to become illusioned… I do not believe by the way that Germany might count for a much longer future… We could… envisage… the possibility that England and her immense Empire comes to surrender to the United States. The latter… is the true adversary of Russia in the great struggle to come… I also believe that the United States is appealed to triumph. Otherwise, the universe would be Russian.

- Vacher de Lapouge 1899

Wow.
That's such an accurate prediction of the Cold War it's almost scary.
I was just about to comment on that-either back then people were far more accurate in their predictions or they had crystal ball access.
 
The reign of Europe is over, well over… The future of France seems less certain but it is unnecessary to become illusioned… I do not believe by the way that Germany might count for a much longer future… We could… envisage… the possibility that England and her immense Empire comes to surrender to the United States. The latter… is the true adversary of Russia in the great struggle to come… I also believe that the United States is appealed to triumph. Otherwise, the universe would be Russian.

- Vacher de Lapouge 1899

Wow.
That's such an accurate prediction of the Cold War it's almost scary.
Alexis de Tocqueville predicted a Russian-American confrontation 60 years prior, this belief wasn't all that uncommon:

Alexis de Tocqueville said:
There are at the present time two great nations in the world, which started from different points, but seem to tend towards the same end. I allude to the Russians and the Americans. Both of them have grown up unnoticed; and whilst the attention of mankind was directed elsewhere, they have suddenly placed themselves in the front rank among the nations, and the world learned their existence and their greatness at almost the same time.

All other nations seem to have nearly reached their natural limits, and they have only to maintain their power; but these are still in the act of growth. All the others have stopped, or continue to advance with extreme difficulty; these alone are proceeding with ease and celerity along a path to which no limit can be perceived. The American struggles against the obstacles which nature opposes to him; the adversaries of the Russian are men. The former combats the wilderness and savage life; the latter, civilization with all its arms. The conquests of the American are therefore gained with the ploughshare; those of the Russian by the sword. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends, and gives free scope to the unguided strength and common sense of the people; the Russian centres all the authority of society in a single arm. The principal instrument of the former is freedom; of the latter, servitude. Their starting-point is different, and their courses are not the same; yet each of them seems marked out by the will of Heaven to sway the destinies of half the globe.

Seems to me that the people of the 19th century predicted Russia and America to come to blows because they perceived them to be polar opposites (one is a liberal republic centered around individualism and liberty and the other is a crushing despotic autocracy), so I chalk it up to just a lucky guess.
 
Seems to me that the people of the 19th century predicted Russia and America to come to blows because they perceived them to be polar opposites (one is a liberal republic centered around individualism and liberty and the other is a crushing despotic autocracy), so I chalk it up to just a lucky guess.
Not quite. They were also quite evidently very large states with immense natural resources and either large populations or large rates of population growth, along with a relatively high degree of technical sophistication (compared to, say, China) and, later on, political independence. It made sense to project that they would eventually overtake the smaller, less populous European states provided they didn't complete squander their advantages. In essence, projecting that Russia and America would, in the future, be very important states was something like the modern habit of projecting that China and India will, in the future, be very important states (okay, China is now a very important state, but it wasn't fairly recently). It makes sense from the fundamental characteristics of those states and therefore isn't very surprising when it happens.
 
Not quite. They were also quite evidently very large states with immense natural resources and either large populations or large rates of population growth, along with a relatively high degree of technical sophistication (compared to, say, China) and, later on, political independence. It made sense to project that they would eventually overtake the smaller, less populous European states provided they didn't complete squander their advantages. In essence, projecting that Russia and America would, in the future, be very important states was something like the modern habit of projecting that China and India will, in the future, be very important states (okay, China is now a very important state, but it wasn't fairly recently). It makes sense from the fundamental characteristics of those states and therefore isn't very surprising when it happens.

Not sure I'd say that about China; people have been playing at the drum of the yellow peril since the 18th century IIRC...even through China's worst humiliations at the hands of the West, people were weary about a resurgent China and only saw it as a matter of time. IIRC this ties into why China received a seat on the security council despite being in the middle of a civil war and a crippling Japanese invasion. Everybody knew the writing was on the wall.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The reign of Europe is over, well over… The future of France seems less certain but it is unnecessary to become illusioned… I do not believe by the way that Germany might count for a much longer future… We could… envisage… the possibility that England and her immense Empire comes to surrender to the United States. The latter… is the true adversary of Russia in the great struggle to come… I also believe that the United States is appealed to triumph. Otherwise, the universe would be Russian.

- Vacher de Lapouge 1899

Wow.
That's such an accurate prediction of the Cold War it's almost scary.
Alexis de Tocqueville's prediction about a U.S.-Russian Cold War was equally accurate and came more than half a century earlier than de Lapouge's prediction, though.

Seems to me that many Western Europeans of the 19th century had severe Russophobia went it came to the growing power of Imperial Russia.
For context, here are some musings from political writers of the time:

● Given this, what's the plausibility that a popular campaign among western nations to contain Russian growth could've arisen in the 19th century?

● If plausible, what might it look like and what would be the effects for Western Europe and Russia if such a coalition were to form?

For this to come true, Franco-German hostility would need to be eliminated; specifically, this would mean having Germany not acquire Alsace-Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian War.
 
Alexis de Tocqueville's prediction about a U.S.-Russian Cold War was equally accurate and came more than half a century earlier than de Lapouge's prediction, though.


For this to come true, Franco-German hostility would need to be eliminated; specifically, this would mean having Germany not acquire Alsace-Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian War.
I always wonder... does one become so accurate as de Tocqueville?
 
Thing is, some Western Europeans had Russophobia even when it came to asking Russia for help, and doing the exact opposite of anti-Russian containment. ("The French people are civilized, their sovereign is not; the sovereign of Russia is civilized, though his people are not...thus the sovereign of Russia must be the ally of the French people..." - Talleyrand, 1808.)
Most of the time, their Russophobia was relegated to a sort of background noise that meant exactly as much as the nation's interests would allow it to mean.

At the end of the day, many were happy to repeat the usual hogswash about Russian barbarism, European civilization, and so on, but only some held that belief deeply and sincerely. There is no realistic way Europe is going to forget its own conflicts and interests to contain a "threat" that's entirely imaginary to most of the continent.
 
Traditionally Russia and America were the closest of friends. From the founding to the Republic up until Teddy Roosevelt, Russia was seen as the traditional ally and Britain the enemy

As for a united anti-Russian front, that would require that France not hate Germany, Germany not to despise Britain and Russia to have designs on Europe. When Nicholas was going East, the Kaiser was happy to oblige him.

Only fear and the opportunity for gain is going to unite Europe.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Maybe have the 1840s liberal revolutions completely successful in all European countries including Britain and France (no Louis Bonarparte gaining power) and except for Russia. In this context, Russia would become the bogeyman for all newly established liberal states.
 
Create a kind of coalition of European states during the Crimean war including UK France Audtria Prussia and Sweden with big territorial promises for Prussia (baltic Area)and Austria and Sweden
 
Top