WI/PC: Pagan Russia?

Is there anyway to have a major Russian state emerge that, rather than converting to Christianity (or Islam) it retains its Pagan roots? If so, what might such a Russia look like and be organized, how would outside nations treat it and how long might it survive as its own state?
 
For a series of reasons, and while not inconcievble for a longer period, I don't think Pagan Russia is doable on the long run

1) Dynamism of Christianism in the region, and in a lesser way, Islam.
It lead to a greater pressure on the Christian/Islam borders on the pagans (whom division more or less weakened against relativly united religion) that would be hard to resist on the long run.

2) Religion as a diplomatic feature.
With Byzantium being quite the big fellah on the region, and using religion as way to tie relation, it certainly gave some room to tough for Russian princes.
The benefits of converting to Christianism, enforcing better ties, clearly counted on the historical conversion.
Of course, a rival or pretender for leadership, converting himself, could probably count on Byzantine support in the case of an opposition with pagan rulers.

3) Christianism and Islam as a political vision
Contrary to pagan impact on politics, Christianism and Islam bear a vision where the ruler was more or less associated with divine will, making his rule harder to compete. Basically monotheism was a good way to get rid of too powerful competitors, and avoiding to share the power to a given degree.

Now, as said, Russia could most possibly retain paganism longer, (more in Hungary way than Lithuania, being far less isolated than the former). Maybe up to XII century at best, but you'll have certainly christian influence and conversion before this.
It would most certainly means less relations, less alliances (no Anna of Kiev in France by exemple) and, I would think less structured, maybe making it more threatening for Byzantium eventually.
 

katchen

Banned
I can see several problems. Firstly, which paganism are we talking about?
Russia early fell under Rurik and then the Danilovs who were Swedish followers of Asatru (the Aesir). not the Slavic gods. So we already have one religious imposition on the Russians.
Basically, we would need two PODs. The first is that the Danilov kings of Novgorod stay Asatru. The second is that Ogadei Khan sends Joshi Khan and the Oirats west to conquer the West, not Batu Khan and the Kipchaks.
The Oirats convert early on to Vajrayana Buddhism from Tengriism. It takes a religious trakdtion like Vajrayana to compete with Christianity and Islam. Vajrayana Buddhism can backstop both slavic religion and Asatru without denying it altogether. And if the Gelugpa sect of Vajrayana Buddhism can crown the Khan of the Dzungars in return for the Dzungars elevating the Dalai Lama, the Gelugpa or Karmapa Sect can create a Khan rather than a Tsar of all the Russias who will be both an Asatru and a Buddhist. After all, it is asy to see Odinn as a seeker of Enlightenment and Buddhahood in his own way.
Indeed, backed up by Vajrayana Buddhism, a Buddhist /Asatru Russia and a Buddhist/Mongol trade route extending to China and India, an Asatru/Buddhist Sweden even becomes possible. --and something Christiandom simply will have to learn to live with.
 

Genghis Kawaii

Gone Fishin'
I can see several problems. Firstly, which paganism are we talking about?
Russia early fell under Rurik and then the Danilovs who were Swedish followers of Asatru (the Aesir). not the Slavic gods. So we already have one religious imposition on the Russians.
Basically, we would need two PODs. The first is that the Danilov kings of Novgorod stay Asatru. The second is that Ogadei Khan sends Joshi Khan and the Oirats west to conquer the West, not Batu Khan and the Kipchaks.
The Oirats convert early on to Vajrayana Buddhism from Tengriism. It takes a religious trakdtion like Vajrayana to compete with Christianity and Islam. Vajrayana Buddhism can backstop both slavic religion and Asatru without denying it altogether. And if the Gelugpa sect of Vajrayana Buddhism can crown the Khan of the Dzungars in return for the Dzungars elevating the Dalai Lama, the Gelugpa or Karmapa Sect can create a Khan rather than a Tsar of all the Russias who will be both an Asatru and a Buddhist. After all, it is asy to see Odinn as a seeker of Enlightenment and Buddhahood in his own way.
Indeed, backed up by Vajrayana Buddhism, a Buddhist /Asatru Russia and a Buddhist/Mongol trade route extending to China and India, an Asatru/Buddhist Sweden even becomes possible. --and something Christiandom simply will have to learn to live with.
...This is the most amazing idea ever.
 
The closest thing I could think of for a fairly modern era would be a pseudo-Nazi Russia (this would require a pre-1900 POD), based around Pan-Slavism, which propagates worship of the 'Old Gods' of the Slavs. This form of Slavic Neopaganism (quite distinct from modern Rodnovery) would be very different from actual Slavic paganism, which we only know in fragments (and scholars tend to use Norse mythology to patch up the gaps, which probably wouldn't be deemed okay in a Slavo-Fascist state, which would probably define itself by non-Germanicness).

Even then, this wouldn't permeate Russian society as a whole. Only SS-analogues.
 
...This is the most amazing idea ever.

There's some flaws however :

1) Having Russia being largely pagan up to Mongols Invasions (assuming that the PoD doesn't butterfly away this)

2) Having Mongols turning all of a sudden missionaries, while they usually didn't gave the slightest fuck about it before converting themselves.

3) A Buddhist Russia would be interesting, yes, but it would require at the very best a less powerful Islam in M-E and more dynamic Buddhism.
 

Delvestius

Banned
...This is the most amazing idea ever.

Seconded, simply awesome.

1) Having Russia being largely pagan up to Mongols Invasions (assuming that the PoD doesn't butterfly away this)

He did mention a second PoD.

2) Having Mongols turning all of a sudden missionaries, while they usually didn't gave the slightest fuck about it before converting themselves.

Easily done, say they had more of an instruction to do so by those who converted the Mongols.

3) A Buddhist Russia would be interesting, yes, but it would require at the very best a less powerful Islam in M-E and more dynamic Buddhism.

Why is this necessary? Whether Russia is Buddhist should have no effect on their ability to defend from any Arab, Turk or Persian attack, as they did.
 
He did mention a second PoD.
It's not because you know you need a second PoD, that is automatically resolves the point.

Easily done, say they had more of an instruction to do so by those who converted the Mongols.
So again, we need a PoD that makes Buddhism more dynamic and missionary than OTL, and that doesn't butterfly away Mongols Invasions (knowing these would be likely changed anyway)

Why is this necessary? Whether Russia is Buddhist should have no effect on their ability to defend from any Arab, Turk or Persian attack, as they did.
It's not for after conversion, it's for Buddhism able to convert Russians in the XII century, without having to compete with a much stronger, dynamic and closer Islam or Christianity. Period.
 

Delvestius

Banned
It's not because you know you need a second PoD, that is automatically resolves the point.

How so? butterflies are butterflies.

So again, we need a PoD that makes Buddhism more dynamic and missionary than OTL, and that doesn't butterfly away Mongols Invasions (knowing these would be likely changed anyway)

I think that the hypothetical Mongol conversion and their own personal interpretation could be enough for fit this.

It's not for after conversion, it's for Buddhism able to convert Russians in the XII century, without having to compete with a much stronger, dynamic and closer Islam or Christianity. Period.

The comparative levels of openness and freedom within Buddhism may be enough to appeal to the pagan peoples. Syncretism is surely to be a better option in Buddhism than the Abrahamic faiths.
 
Buddhism could have arrived to Russia way before the Mongols come, if the POD is early enough like No Islam - from the Soghdian heartland maybe...
 
How so? butterflies are butterflies.
Random butterfly or "Pod => Random shit"-AH is as much convincing than a 3$ banknote.
If a PoD makes possible a situation, and explain it, ok. So far it wasn't the case.

I think that the hypothetical Mongol conversion and their own personal interpretation could be enough for fit this.
That's not an explanation : that's the wanted result. How it would happen, why would it be different from OTL would be interesting.

The comparative levels of openness and freedom within Buddhism may be enough to appeal to the pagan peoples. Syncretism is surely to be a better option in Buddhism than the Abrahamic faiths.
But it didn't happened OTL for several reasons (listed above) : a TL doesn't work by wishful thinking, and even a bad reason for history to change would be appreciated.

Here, I think a weaker Islam and a more militant Buddhism could help (while, for listed reasons, I think Christian Russia is hard to avoid, at least with a PoD late enough to allow "pagan" definition to exist), but I ask how it would be done for both. For Islam, it was debated in many others threads so let's admit it's done.
How Buddhism could have a more important missionary drive westwards, and being considered as a serious competitor early enough to prevent christianisation of Russia?
 
Random butterfly or "Pod => Random shit"-AH is as much convincing than a 3$ banknote.
If a PoD makes possible a situation, and explain it, ok. So far it wasn't the case.


That's not an explanation : that's the wanted result. How it would happen, why would it be different from OTL would be interesting.


But it didn't happened OTL for several reasons (listed above) : a TL doesn't work by wishful thinking, and even a bad reason for history to change would be appreciated.

Here, I think a weaker Islam and a more militant Buddhism could help (while, for listed reasons, I think Christian Russia is hard to avoid, at least with a PoD late enough to allow "pagan" definition to exist), but I ask how it would be done for both. For Islam, it was debated in many others threads so let's admit it's done.
How Buddhism could have a more important missionary drive westwards, and being considered as a serious competitor early enough to prevent christianisation of Russia?

I still believe that without Islam, Buddhism is a potent potential, ghandarian style mahayana and all, with iranian influence.

A good competitor who offers some same similar ideas to Christianism and all.
 
I still believe that without Islam, Buddhism is a potent potential, ghandarian style mahayana and all, with iranian influence.
I don't say it doesn't have : but he would still have to deal with M-E religions, stronger Christianism (less in organisation than relative cohesion) critically with a Christianism that is less a competitor than having monopole of religious-ideological stance west of Ural.
Again, Russia is sitting (and owes its birth) on a big trade road that is very very unlikely to be ignored by great powers in East Mediterranean basin/Middle-East and to avoid their political/religious influence.

It would have needed a more dynamic Buddhism, more "militant" and ready to absorb new ideals and yes, in the form you described, it could do. But just "No Islam" isn't enough : you need inner changes for itself to have that. Not knowing well enough history of Buddhism, I ask which ones and when the PoD could take place.
 
I don't say it doesn't have : but he would still have to deal with M-E religions, stronger Christianism (less in organisation than relative cohesion) critically with a Christianism that is less a competitor than having monopole of religious-ideological stance west of Ural.
Again, Russia is sitting (and owes its birth) on a big trade road that is very very unlikely to be ignored by great powers in East Mediterranean basin/Middle-East and to avoid their political/religious influence.

It would have needed a more dynamic Buddhism, more "militant" and ready to absorb new ideals and yes, in the form you described, it could do. But just "No Islam" isn't enough : you need inner changes for itself to have that. Not knowing well enough history of Buddhism, I ask which ones and when the PoD could take place.

From what we know, Buddhism was actually quite sellable, and westwise... With the contacts around greek, and iranian ideas, it evolved quite, and became quite popular, like the Kuchan invaders.

It's possible that with no islam at all, it could have seeped to the iranian mainland (from soghdians), and northwest to early slavs, perhaps...

It's all hypothetic, granted. But I find the idea that Christianism will win out without Islam kinda.,.. weak. Why the Sassanides by example would become christians, was it really popular up to a time in the empire? Why not somethign that actually was as well very 'iranian' even if out of the old mainland?
 
From what we know, Buddhism was actually quite sellable, and westwise... With the contacts around greek, and iranian ideas, it evolved quite, and became quite popular, like the Kuchan invaders.
Yes, but what would have made him more missionary than OTL, where it didn't really was a competitor for, say Islam? Budhism CAN be a really interesting competitor to Christianism, but I think that "no Islam" isn't enough to really make it such (I would actually think that Hindouism would ends up being far more strong than OTL, being the Indian Ocean religion and possibly roots in Arabia and M-E, would it be at least by trade influence)

It's all hypothetic, granted. But I find the idea that Christianism will win out without Islam kinda.,.. weak.

Why the Sassanides by example would become christians, was it really popular up to a time in the empire? Why not somethign that actually was as well very 'iranian' even if out of the old mainland?
I didn't say it would. While a Nestorian presence in Sassanid Iran is possible, it wouldn't be easy for it to be prevalent.
But contrary to Islam or Christianism that formed a cultural-economical continuum in continental scale, Persians religions were pretty much stuck on Iran OTL.

Granted they could spread, critically in Arabia, or being "replaced" by a more militant Budhism (again, a genuine question that nobody answered, how?) but Christianism (that would probably not know a formal division as OTL, at least later ITTL) would be certainly in stronger position, being still the political/cultural/economical continuum of both Mediterranea and North Sea and therefore even more likely to impose itself in the eastern road linking both basins, aka Volga basin.

Again, for me No Islam means more stronger Hinduism, spreading from Indonesia to East Africa at least, than stronger Buddhism, if the pod is restricted to this.
 
Yes, but what would have made him more missionary than OTL, where it didn't really was a competitor for, say Islam? Budhism CAN be a really interesting competitor to Christianism, but I think that "no Islam" isn't enough to really make it such (I would actually think that Hindouism would ends up being far more strong than OTL, being the Indian Ocean religion and possibly roots in Arabia and M-E, would it be at least by trade influence)




I didn't say it would. While a Nestorian presence in Sassanid Iran is possible, it wouldn't be easy for it to be prevalent.
But contrary to Islam or Christianism that formed a cultural-economical continuum in continental scale, Persians religions were pretty much stuck on Iran OTL.

Granted they could spread, critically in Arabia, or being "replaced" by a more militant Budhism (again, a genuine question that nobody answered, how?) but Christianism (that would probably not know a formal division as OTL, at least later ITTL) would be certainly in stronger position, being still the political/cultural/economical continuum of both Mediterranea and North Sea and therefore even more likely to impose itself in the eastern road linking both basins, aka Volga basin.

Again, for me No Islam means more stronger Hinduism, spreading from Indonesia to East Africa at least, than stronger Buddhism, if the pod is restricted to this.

Buddhism IS very missionary minded, or used to be - Islam was just more... direct on some points, perhaps. Like leaving it. And Buddhism was already in the cultural sphere of the iranian and related people...

But Christianism was very much tainted by the fact it was the religion of the ennemy states, of the westerners, etc.. AND Buddhism was in the cultural sphere, if out of the 'imperial mainland', influences from Zoroastrism like the fire symbolism... AND better positioned to enter modern Russia/ex USSR territories perhaps, then, specially with a converted Iran, by examp,e.. MAYBE.

But Christianism have more chance for Arabia, and it was there already, as well as Jews.
 
Buddhism IS very missionary minded, or used to be - Islam was just more... direct on some points, perhaps. Like leaving it. And Buddhism was already in the cultural sphere of the iranian and related people...
Being in the cultural sphere isn't enough, it's being prevalent enough in a region to form a cohesive continuum, as did Hinduism in S-E Asia, Islam in Africa and M-E.
While, as I said, I could see Buddhism being the "Silk Way" religion, Christianism as a economical/political continuum is simply too close and more prevalent without Islam to be easily competited there.
It may be possible, but ask for changes in Buddhism evolution itself.

But Christianism was very much tainted by the fact it was the religion of the ennemy states, of the westerners, etc.. AND Buddhism was in the cultural sphere, if out of the 'imperial mainland', influences from Zoroastrism like the fire symbolism... AND better positioned to enter modern Russia/ex USSR territories perhaps, then, specially with a converted Iran, by examp,e.. MAYBE.
I doubt it would be better situated. Again, the penetration of religion usually follows great trade/exchange roads. Christianism, and Islam in a lesser way, penetrated OTL Russia thanks to Volga way that was the link between two dynamics basins that coexisted : North/Baltic Sea and Mediterranea/Black Sea.
You have other exemples, of course : Silk Way for Islam, Indian Ocean way for Hinduism, etc.

While a Buddhic Iran is possible (but as foreign than Christianism : Iran wasn't threatened only in its west borders, the same counted for east), it wouldn't have this access easily and wouldn't form (critically if it takes a more Iranian form, differs more than east-asian counterparts) easily a cohesive economical/political continuum on this economical basin (I don't talk about only an access there, but about a religion marking deeply an economical basin, as Christianism and Islam did)

Caucasus form a quite huge obstacle for having a trade road develloping there, and Volga does form a natural highway that it would be hard to divert.

But Christianism have more chance for Arabia, and it was there already, as well as Jews.
It's one of the reasons it may be less easy for Christianism to takeover Arabia and North Africa actually : Judaism was clearly opposed to Christianism since the III century, being seen as irreductably opposed to it, while pagan rites could and were integrated.
If Judaism was the doorstep to Christianism, you wouldn't have that much medieval Jewish communauties after all :)

And without Islam, being rivaled by a stronger Hinduism could makes things even harder when Christianity would be virtually unrivaled in Mediterranea and North Sea.
 

katchen

Banned
A :LOT of things could be different if, for example, the Yuehzhi (the progenitors of the Kushans) don't stop with Central Asia east of the Caspian but conquer and unify the Massagetae, the Goturk iron workers and the Sarmatians to create a steppe empire that extends all the way to the borders of the Roman Empire before attacking Bactria. Then attacking and unifying the Barbarians (Gepids, Gutonae--Goths, Venedae, Lugii (Vandals), Suevi, Angeles, Saxae. Heruli Even if Rome does not fall to the Kushans during Hadrian's reign, simply having the Kushans breathing down people's neck will change the James Bond franchise.
 
A :LOT of things could be different if, for example, the Yuehzhi (the progenitors of the Kushans) don't stop with Central Asia east of the Caspian but conquer and unify the Massagetae, the Goturk iron workers and the Sarmatians to create a steppe empire that extends all the way to the borders of the Roman Empire before attacking Bactria. Then attacking and unifying the Barbarians (Gepids, Gutonae--Goths, Venedae, Lugii (Vandals), Suevi, Angeles, Saxae. Heruli Even if Rome does not fall to the Kushans during Hadrian's reign, simply having the Kushans breathing down people's neck will change the James Bond franchise.

You would need

1) Conversion of Yuehzhi, I mean a total conversion and not being, as many nomad-issued empires, hosting different religions at the same time.

2) Nomad/Steppe empires doesn't unify people they encounter, not really : at best they are able to integrate them into sort of confederation as Huns were able to integrate Goths, without crushing their organisation and having a real influence on their "way of life" (for lack of a better world). Or, speaking of Sarmates, being under the thumb of Goths didn't prevented them to eventually switch against them.
So, not even talking how they would be able to crush everyone in sight (let's admit they do), such domination would end with at best 10% of actually Yuhezi people inside (with them being only partially Buddhist if they are no entierly converted before), the remaining being or Christianized, or pagans.

Admittedly, a good start would be a Kuchan Empire that doesn't fall in the III century, and able to eventually conquer Persia and Anatolia (with No Islam, it would make three PoDs : Weaker Sassanids and Stronger Kuchan), being the only real way, in my opinion, to have to nerf Volga/Caspian trade road and to benefit to the connection made with Silk Road.
And even all of that isn't a given : to be sure it would lead to a Irano-Kuchan continuum prevalent, you'll need also a much weaker ERE than OTL that, given the "No Islam" part wouldn't be a piece of cake.

3) Again "there's a PoD, so anything could happen for no given reason"-AH is bad, lazy AH*. Good AH is when you explain why and how it's changing, would it be only in passing

* I'm talking about how is done AH on the board, actually. Obviously, AH being more a background for a novel/comics etc. doesn't have (and probably couldn't) to be that precise or plausible.

Let's see the map, shall we?

Varangian_routes.png


As you can see there's two roads : Volga/Caspian, Volga/Dniepr. Eventually, to make the road benefitting to a western Buddhist continuum, an Irano-Kuchan, you have to prevent the biggest trade center in the region, aka Constantinople, to be such. That is, with "No Islam", that's going to be an hard job (hell, it was already with "With Islam" reality).
Furthermore, to have a *Russia* going Budhist, and not nerfed Bulgaria, you have to divert the road or to have a western, now secondary road dominated by Buddhists traders.

See, Russia is basically that at first : a state put in the middle of a trade road, an highway shop turning independent. No trade road from Novgorod to Black Sea, no Russia : simple as that.

So eventually and to resume , there's the challenge :
1) Make Kuchans stronger, eventually able to takeover Sassanid and form an Irano-Buddhist continuum while they didn't really suceeded to impose Buddhism to N-W India as totally prevalent (even if they DID make it influential : you "just" have to make it more missionary; converting driven, maybe altering mahanya Buddhism to make it such)

2) Having an ERE strong enough to be a commercial center and devellop the OTL Russian trade road (without Islam, it would be a piece of cake, but could happening later TOTL), but weak enough to be challenged by Irano-Kushan at the point they would be unable to dominate it eventually (and that would be a bit contradictory)

It can be a very, very interesting TL, but it would be an hard one to put in place : without really convicing explanations for both, and critically 2), I place my bet on Christian Russia eventually.
 

katchen

Banned
A pagan Russia? First you have to have a Russia.

You would need

1) Conversion of Yuehzhi, I mean a total conversion and not being, as many nomad-issued empires, hosting different religions at the same time.

2) Nomad/Steppe empires doesn't unify people they encounter, not really : at best they are able to integrate them into sort of confederation as Huns were able to integrate Goths, without crushing their organisation and having a real influence on their "way of life" (for lack of a better world). Or, speaking of Sarmates, being under the thumb of Goths didn't prevented them to eventually switch against them.
So, not even talking how they would be able to crush everyone in sight (let's admit they do), such domination would end with at best 10% of actually Yuhezi people inside (with them being only partially Buddhist if they are no entierly converted before), the remaining being or Christianized, or pagans.

Admittedly, a good start would be a Kuchan Empire that doesn't fall in the III century, and able to eventually conquer Persia and Anatolia (with No Islam, it would make three PoDs : Weaker Sassanids and Stronger Kuchan), being the only real way, in my opinion, to have to nerf Volga/Caspian trade road and to benefit to the connection made with Silk Road.
And even all of that isn't a given : to be sure it would lead to a Irano-Kuchan continuum prevalent, you'll need also a much weaker ERE than OTL that, given the "No Islam" part wouldn't be a piece of cake.

3) Again "there's a PoD, so anything could happen for no given reason"-AH is bad, lazy AH*. Good AH is when you explain why and how it's changing, would it be only in passing

* I'm talking about how is done AH on the board, actually. Obviously, AH being more a background for a novel/comics etc. doesn't have (and probably couldn't) to be that precise or plausible.

Let's see the map, shall we?

Varangian_routes.png


As you can see there's two roads : Volga/Caspian, Volga/Dniepr. Eventually, to make the road benefitting to a western Buddhist continuum, an Irano-Kuchan, you have to prevent the biggest trade center in the region, aka Constantinople, to be such. That is, with "No Islam", that's going to be an hard job (hell, it was already with "With Islam" reality).
Furthermore, to have a *Russia* going Budhist, and not nerfed Bulgaria, you have to divert the road or to have a western, now secondary road dominated by Buddhists traders.

See, Russia is basically that at first : a state put in the middle of a trade road, an highway shop turning independent. No trade road from Novgorod to Black Sea, no Russia : simple as that.

So eventually and to resume , there's the challenge :
1) Make Kuchans stronger, eventually able to takeover Sassanid and form an Irano-Buddhist continuum while they didn't really suceeded to impose Buddhism to N-W India as totally prevalent (even if they DID make it influential : you "just" have to make it more missionary; converting driven, maybe altering mahanya Buddhism to make it such)

2) Having an ERE strong enough to be a commercial center and devellop the OTL Russian trade road (without Islam, it would be a piece of cake, but could happening later TOTL), but weak enough to be challenged by Irano-Kushan at the point they would be unable to dominate it eventually (and that would be a bit contradictory)

It can be a very, very interesting TL, but it would be an hard one to put in place : without really convicing explanations for both, and critically 2), I place my bet on Christian Russia eventually.
"No trade road from Novgorod to the Black Sea, No Russia. It's as simple as that."
That is a very good point, Catalina. One of the big problem with spreading Buddhism or any of these other religions through Northern and Eastern Europe in ancient times or even Late Antiquity is that until the mouldboard plough and the horse collar came into general use in these places there just were not enough areas with cultivatable soil for civilization to prosper. That's why it a) never paid for the Roman Empire to conquer Germania or b) the Germans only with great difficulty accumulated a large enough population to threaten the Roman Empire.
And this is even more true of Venedia/Russia/Sudzalia. When I read a biography of Peter the Great, I was astounded to discover that the population of Russia AT THE BEGINNING OF THE !8TH CENTURY was only 5 million people from the Ukraine to Siberia. And Russia was made up of villages stuck out in forested plain surrounded by forest with primitive roads connecting them with each other and with a few market towns, some of which had Kremlins for local boyars. And this after 1000 years of civilization.
And up until the time of the Muscovite Grand Dukes it was by no means certain that the peoples of the upper Volga were going to be speaking Russian and not Komi or Sudzalian Finnish or Mordovian or Mariel, all Finno-Ugric languages. So even once we have a trade route along the Volga to Byzantium and/or Persia and China there are numerous PODs where a Russia as we know it can be aborted. And Alexander Nevsky's successful defense of Novgorod against Sweden and later against the Livonian Knights on the ice of Lake Piepus are two big PODs that could have resulted in far different outcomes if they had happened differently.
Likewise, if Ogadei Khan had made the relatively small decision to send Jochi Khan and his Oirats into the West instead of Batu and his Tengrist Kipchaks, this is a POD with significantly different results. The Kipchaks later under Birkai Khan converted to Islam while the Oirats had earlier become enamoured of Vajrayana Buddhism.
Now there is obviously no guarantee that Jochi or his successors would not convert to Islam or Eastern Christianity or even, if he turned out to be more successful with Subotai's help (yes, I think Ogadei would still send Subodai west even with Jochi instead of Batu) in conquering the Holy Roman Empire before Ogadei passes away, Catholicism. Mongol khans could be quite flexible when it came to taking on the religion of their subjects if it made them more effective rulers. But assuming that the Oirats manage not to do so, an Oirat Yoke could be a reasonably believable pathway to a pagan-Buddhist civilization in what we would call IOTL Russia whether or not the people who wind up living there ITTL speak Russian, Finnish, Swedish, Mariel or Oirat or a mixture of these languages.
And so far, we may have been misreading the Challenge to assume that the AH Challenge means pagan RUSSIANS. But now that I think of it, the Challenge actually READS PAGAN RUSSIA. The land area of Russia.:D And that can extend from St. Petersburg and Smolensk all the way to Cape Dezhnev.
Keeping the bulk of that land area pagan is a much easier AH Challenge to meet. It simply becomes a matter of limiting the growth of the Russian State and keeping it out of most or all of Siberia and preferably keeping the Russian State west of the Volga. There are a variety of ways of doing this that have been discussed lately. The Dzungars are more successful against the Kazakhs initially and also conquer the Russian Siberian forts at Tobolsk in the early 17th Century, perhaps conquering all the way to the Volga at Kazan or Ufa before the Russians check them. In doing so, they force the Q'ing, who are determined to wipe them from the face of the Earth come what may, to conquer more of Central Asia than they do IOTL, creating a frontier with Russia and with Europe at the Caspian Sea, the Volga, the Kama and the Urals and leaving the peoples of Siberia to be pagan or Vajrayana Buddhist while truncating the Russian State, at least until the mid 19th Century.
Again, these are relatively small PODs with far reaching consequences. And I believe that these PODs are feasible. It is far more feasible to see Dzungars on the Ob or the Volga than Kushans on the Volga or the Rhine. .
 
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