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Suppose that maximal Union incompetence leads to a brief and bumbling Secession War, after which the USA signs a treaty recognizing an independent, unscathed CSA including Kentucky, Maryland, western Virginia, and Delaware.

The politics of this state are dominated, initially, by the wealthy planters. But there is also an old tradition of Jacksonian "common man" Democracy. With no Yankees to unite against, the two factions find themselves increasingly at odds, and coalesce into two political parties: the Conservative Democrats and the Popular Democrats. Both support slavery and white supremacy, but they disagree about the distribution of the fruits of slave labor.

The late 1860's and 1870's are a rough time for the CSA. The planter class invests nothing in national improvement, and slaves remain the only significant form of wealth in the country. Poor, non-slave-owning Confederate citizens begin to advocate radical measures that would allow them to share in that wealth.

They first succeed in states like Kentucky, Delaware, and Maryland, where there are few slaves and a more diverse economic base. Popular state governments declare the remaining slaves state property, and organize them into labor brigades.

Following a disastrous attempt by the CSA to conquer Cuba, the Populars are swept into office in a climate of revolutionary fervor and anti-planter hostility. Over the next few decades, all privately owned slaves in the CSA are nationalized by successive Popular governments. Slaves are rented out to planters, but also used as laborers on railroads, factories, public works, etc.

I have two questions: (1) Is this remotely plausible? (2) Would this prolong the institution of slavery or hasten its end?
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