Inspired by Kevin Rudd's return as Prime Minister of Australia and when we are all analyzing his possible effect on the election, I want to explore into another scenario - if Koizumi's return in 2009 could possibly alter the LDP landslide defeat in 2009.
As you all know, Prime Minister Taro Aso and his LDP was extremely unpopular. For most of 2009, the DPJ was leading the LDP by wide margins. After Ichiro Ozawa's speedy resignation as opposition leader following the discovery of his scandals and his replacement by Ichiro Hatoyama, the DPJ has always been able to maintain its lead by over 10 points. Just after the LDP's landslide defeat in the Tokyo prefectural election in 2009, some in the LDP was floating a plan to ask Koizumi to retun as Prime Minister.
Junichiro Koizumi supported Yuriko Koike over Aso in the 2008 LDP leadership contest, but Aso was still able to win by huge margins. Despite being equally nationalistic, Aso and Koizumi had differing visions on the economy and reform. While polls in 2009 has shown that, after the Tokyo defeat, Koizumi's return would only have narrowed the LDP's defeat, and the LDP would actually do the best under Yoichi Masuzoe (who had virtually zero support in the LDP) or Shigeru Ishiba; I cannot but begin to think, if Junichiro Koizumi, the charismatic former prime minister could possibly have led the LDP towards a surprise victory in 2009 - or at least, to win a plurality.
There were indeed plans to dump Taro Aso after the defeat in Tokyo and just before the 2009 election, to replace him with either Ishiba or Koizumi in order to prevent a landslide defeat. It was believed that while Koizumi's influence was declining in the LDP, signaled by the poor performance of Koike in the 2008 contest; Koizumi would be able to command enough support among LDP members of both Houses to oust Aso due to the strong fear of defeat, which Ishiba or Masuzoe could not.
Koizumi simply refused, on the grounds that he has already promised to retire and pass his seat to his son. However, it was seemingly more that he did not want to deal with a distorted diet (upper house controlled by the DPJ), he did not think he could surely win and that he did not believe there was much that he could do.
What if Koizumi was convinced to take over the LDP in July 2009, do you think he could turn things around in a month, and bring a stunning upset in August? Or is it simply too late to change anything?
Had the LDP-Komeito coalition won a plurality or a narrow majority in 2009, how long could Koizumi last? Would the LDP have suffered a landslide defeat in the 2010 upper house election? How long could his government have survived? What would he try to do in office?
Had the LDP still lost, but by a much narrower margin, what would be the impact on the DPJ government? Would it be ousted by a no-confidence motion, instead of surviving until December 2012? Would Hatoyama be able to hang on longer, ironically? There were actually rumors of the prospect of a DPJ-Komeito coalition, had the DPJ won more votes and more seats but without the ability to form a government with its partners (SDP and PNP). How would it have worked out?
As you all know, Prime Minister Taro Aso and his LDP was extremely unpopular. For most of 2009, the DPJ was leading the LDP by wide margins. After Ichiro Ozawa's speedy resignation as opposition leader following the discovery of his scandals and his replacement by Ichiro Hatoyama, the DPJ has always been able to maintain its lead by over 10 points. Just after the LDP's landslide defeat in the Tokyo prefectural election in 2009, some in the LDP was floating a plan to ask Koizumi to retun as Prime Minister.
Junichiro Koizumi supported Yuriko Koike over Aso in the 2008 LDP leadership contest, but Aso was still able to win by huge margins. Despite being equally nationalistic, Aso and Koizumi had differing visions on the economy and reform. While polls in 2009 has shown that, after the Tokyo defeat, Koizumi's return would only have narrowed the LDP's defeat, and the LDP would actually do the best under Yoichi Masuzoe (who had virtually zero support in the LDP) or Shigeru Ishiba; I cannot but begin to think, if Junichiro Koizumi, the charismatic former prime minister could possibly have led the LDP towards a surprise victory in 2009 - or at least, to win a plurality.
There were indeed plans to dump Taro Aso after the defeat in Tokyo and just before the 2009 election, to replace him with either Ishiba or Koizumi in order to prevent a landslide defeat. It was believed that while Koizumi's influence was declining in the LDP, signaled by the poor performance of Koike in the 2008 contest; Koizumi would be able to command enough support among LDP members of both Houses to oust Aso due to the strong fear of defeat, which Ishiba or Masuzoe could not.
Koizumi simply refused, on the grounds that he has already promised to retire and pass his seat to his son. However, it was seemingly more that he did not want to deal with a distorted diet (upper house controlled by the DPJ), he did not think he could surely win and that he did not believe there was much that he could do.
What if Koizumi was convinced to take over the LDP in July 2009, do you think he could turn things around in a month, and bring a stunning upset in August? Or is it simply too late to change anything?
Had the LDP-Komeito coalition won a plurality or a narrow majority in 2009, how long could Koizumi last? Would the LDP have suffered a landslide defeat in the 2010 upper house election? How long could his government have survived? What would he try to do in office?
Had the LDP still lost, but by a much narrower margin, what would be the impact on the DPJ government? Would it be ousted by a no-confidence motion, instead of surviving until December 2012? Would Hatoyama be able to hang on longer, ironically? There were actually rumors of the prospect of a DPJ-Komeito coalition, had the DPJ won more votes and more seats but without the ability to form a government with its partners (SDP and PNP). How would it have worked out?