WI/PC: Argentina with an Independent deterrent?

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
Inspired by my earlier thread about a Swedish deterrent.

With a pod after 1950, put in place the events and circumstances that would allow Argentina to field an independent deterrent.

This must either be an ICBM, SLBM or both.

Bonus points if you can get these systems fully in service by the time the Falklands Crisis kicks off.

Regards filers.
 
It's too early for the Falklands, but it's possible during the 1990s if, somehow, the Argentine government has a good reason to stand up to the USA for an expensive weapons system it doesn't need.
Argentina was building, with German assistance and together with Egypt and Iraq (do you see a problem there?) a MRBM called "Condor 2" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condor_(Argentine_missile) which was supposed to carry a 500kg at a 1000 km range.

As for nuclear weapons, Argentina was pursuing independent uranium enrichment capabilities which, IIRC, were finally developed in the 1990s.

So it's a bit of a political and maybe economic POD (the military brought the nuclear program to Alfonsín in the 1980s, reportedly, he shelved it due costs. OTOH, the Condor missile and uranium enrichment program kept going so I'm not sure what he actually cancelled). The key point is why is the Argentine government standing up to American diplomatic pressure, because I doubt the existance of the nuclear program can be kept hidden from the CIA.
 
We need a period of weakness in the USA for this to occur, otherwise they'd not tolerate the nuclear weaponization of Latin America. You've sent very strict parameters on the weapons as well. SLBM? No way Argentina can construct a boomer boat and absolutely no way to make SLBMs. Even the Brits couldn't do the latter. ICBM, as in Intercontinental? Who's the target outside of the continent? The usual enemies of Argentina are Chile and Brazil, so short ranged nukes would suffice.
 
Who's the target outside of the continent?
Britain, but that's well above Argentina's budget - You don't just need mobile ICBMs, you need to detect if they are launching at you.

The other issue is that, even if Argentina was to shield herself from American diplomacy (say, partner with Israel instead of Egypt and Iraq), a nuclear armed Argentina means a nuclear armed Brazil. Even if the USA was to allow the former, it won't allow a nuclear arms race in Latin America.

Maybe keeping the USSR in existence until the Argentine nuclear program bears fruit can help, as there won't be a USA as a lone hyperpower to which the Argentine government should better bow to, but even then, the American pressure against a nuclear arms race in South America would be very strong. How do you weaken the USA so much with a POD after 1950?
 
Honestly if the Argentines spent the money on their Nuclear program then my sense is they would have gone with either Vulcans bought from the British or Scud/Scud clones as a delivery system. This is of course assuming that things went in a similar manner to OTL, and the project was begun under the Junta. That said the best way for Argentina to develop an independent deterrent would be for the Brazilians to get luck in the lat 50's or 60's so their program went quicker (Being able to get a load of centrifuges or the like without anyone blocking them...) with Brazil being a Nuclear power Argentina is not going to allow anyone to tell them that they can't have nukes. That would mean that the Falklands would be a secondary concern for the Junta and that would butterfly the Falklands war.
 
Would the United States necessarily be able to prevent the nuclearization of Argentina and then Brazil? They're both relatively prosperous countries with the raw materials, human and otherwise, needed for nuclear programs.
 
Have Communism stand up in the 30s, 40s and 50s and eventually triumph in Argentina by the 70s (the USA too distracted in South East Asia) with the country becoming communist through a popular revolt after decades of misrule by a mix of incompetent corrupt governments and near fascist Military Juntas.

The USSR is quick to offer support for the new 'Socialist Argentina' (with basing rights etc) and through them they get access to (among other things) Scuds B and C - basically to threaten her neighbours (whom the US had very quickly backed after Argentina's switch to communism).

Not sure if the USSR was in the business of arming her 'vassal states' with nukes (did East Germany have Tactical Nukes?) but this idea might serve - perhaps if only Conventional (like Saddams Scuds!) Apartheid South African and or Israeli assistance might allow them to be 'up armed' ?

So Tactical Nukes - does that serve the ops premise?

Edit: Ahhh - ICBMs and SLBMs.

Let me have a think
 
Have the junta harden its position after the defeat of the Falklands War, rather than allow democratization under Bignone, a hardliner stays in power like Alfredo Saint-Jean, with massive repression and international isolation Argentina would draw closer to the Soviet Union out of necessity of the regime for survival.
(IRL the Soviets became the largest trade partner of Argentina briefly after the Falklands War and even offered timid support during it, even as the military regime was still calling itself "anti-communist" and murdering left-wing people... the Carter grain embargo on the Soviets had already drawn Argentina closer to the USSR in the late 1970s)

You would also need to avoid the rise of Gorbachev, so the Cold War continues in full force until at least the early 1990s, giving time for Argentina to develop its nuclear program and medium range Condor ballistic missile even in the face of likely US and European economic sanctions in this scenario.

It is important to remember Brazil would also develop nukes in such a scenario. (And vice-versa)

A nightmarish scenario, to be sure.

A more benign version would be to butterfly away the 1930 coup, allowing Argentina to join the Allies in WW2 and follow a normal democratic path, Argentina becomes a major NATO ally, signs a defence treaty with the USA and gets placed under the US nuclear umbrella in exchange for allowing US telemetry tracking bases in Patagonia, much like Australia in OTL. However in this case it wouldn't be an indigenous deterrent but one owned by America.
 
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