WI/PC: Alternate outcomes to the Munich Agreements

[Hashoosh]

1. The British and French administrations under Chamberlain and Daladier decide before the conference that there will be no territorial concessions. If they stand by this conviction, how would Hitler and Mussolini act during the talks? Is it likely an ultimatum similar to Danzig would be issued for the Sudetenland?

2. The Czechs refuse to accept the terms, forcing Germany to either invade or back down. How do parties of the agreement, and the Soviet Union, react?

How plausible are either of these scenarios? I can see a war resulting from the second being Germany vs. Czechoslovakia, with France and Britain initially washing their hands of the matter. Poland, Hungary, the Soviets and Romania would all have to make very difficult choices at this point.

War resulting from the first PoD, with Germany having no diplomatic cover and facing the prospect of a swift defeat could potentially lead to the Oster Conspiracy being set in motion.

Anyways, I'd love to hear what everyone's thoughts are based on an alternate Fall 1938. If there are timeliness based on these Pods, could someone link them? Sorry if both of these have been posted before, I'm not very good at using the forum search tools.

 

[Hashoosh]

Bumping

What would the actual war looked like if it was just Germany vs. Czechs, with the French and British washing their hands. I'm inclined to think that there would certainly be a military coup should the French and British make clear theyll fight for Czechoslovakia at Munich.

What were Warsaw, Budapest, Bucharest and Moscow all thinking at this point?

 

[Gudestein]

Its an interesting question. It strikes me as highly embarressing for the British and French if the czecks decide to fight. What kind of pressure did they put on them?

 

[Resurgam]

They were told by Chamberlain you're on your own, and don't look to us for help.

All of my ESL students were born well after the end of the war, and several have openly used the word "betrayal" to describe what happened.

 

[spkaca]

1. The British and French administrations under Chamberlain and Daladier decide before the conference that there will be no territorial concessions. If they stand by this conviction, how would Hitler and Mussolini act during the talks? Is it likely an ultimatum similar to Danzig would be issued for the Sudetenland?

2. The Czechs refuse to accept the terms, forcing Germany to either invade or back down. How do parties of the agreement, and the Soviet Union, react?

How plausible are either of these scenarios? I can see a war resulting from the second being Germany vs. Czechoslovakia, with France and Britain initially washing their hands of the matter. Poland, Hungary, the Soviets and Romania would all have to make very difficult choices at this point.

War resulting from the first PoD, with Germany having no diplomatic cover and facing the prospect of a swift defeat could potentially lead to the Oster Conspiracy being set in motion.

Anyways, I'd love to hear what everyone's thoughts are based on an alternate Fall 1938. If there are timeliness based on these Pods, could someone link them? Sorry if both of these have been posted before, I'm not very good at using the forum search tools.

My TL (sigged) takes scenario 1, though I am afraid I used an ASB to make it work - I just can't see any way the British would take a hard line at Munich. I tried to make the rest of the scenario as ASB-free as possible beyond that point, though.
In scenario 2 it gets awfully messy very quickly as you note. With no Nazi-Soviet Pact in place the temptation for Stalin to Do Something would be strong even though the purges are still going on. And if Stalin acted that might force the hand of others, including the Western powers, who would at that point be even more scared of a Stalin-dominated Central Europe than of a Hitler-dominated one. Churchill in his memoirs said that the Czechs should have fought even after their abandonment, since the war was unlikely to remain local for long.
The role of Poland would then also become vital and interesting (in the Chinese-proverb sense).

 

[Shinsu]

What would the actual war looked like if it was just Germany vs. Czechs, with the French and British washing their hands.

It would have been rather short yet bloody. The Germans only had enough fuel for around three weeks and both the German and Czech armies were about the same size. The Germans had an equal number of guns to the Czechs (around 2,000) an advantage of 6:1 in tanks and 3:1 in aircraft. You have to realize that the weather would be a major factor too (the month of October which is when the attack was going to happen was very rainy and bad for aircraft usage.)

What were Warsaw, Budapest, Bucharest and Moscow all thinking at this point?

Warsaw wasn't going to get involved unless it was on the last legs of the war. They didn't want to get invaded by the Soviet Union or Germany.
The Hungarians had only one year previously been allowed to re-arm and they at the time could only muster 450,000 men at most with only around 90,000 with actual training, combined that with them having only 150 tanks and around 300 aircraft, their fighting ability isn't very high
Romania was an avid Czech supporter and actually raised their army in 1939, as to whether or not they would send their troops to help is a question I can't answer though.
The Soviet Union claimed that they would support Czechoslovakia with 350,000 men (transported through Romanian territory) if a war occurred between them and Germany.

 

[Hashoosh]

It would have been rather short yet bloody. The Germans only had enough fuel for around three weeks and both the German and Czech armies were about the same size. The Germans had an equal number of guns to the Czechs (around 2,000) an advantage of 6:1 in tanks and 3:1 in aircraft. You have to realize that the weather would be a major factor too (the month of October which is when the attack was going to happen was very rainy and bad for aircraft usage.)



Warsaw wasn't going to get involved unless it was on the last legs of the war. They didn't want to get invaded by the Soviet Union or Germany.
The Hungarians had only one year previously been allowed to re-arm and they at the time could only muster 450,000 men at most with only around 90,000 with actual training, combined that with them having only 150 tanks and around 300 aircraft, their fighting ability isn't very high
Romania was an avid Czech supporter and actually raised their army in 1939, as to whether or not they would send their troops to help is a question I can't answer though.
The Soviet Union claimed that they would support Czechoslovakia with 350,000 men (transported through Romanian territory) if a war occurred between them and Germany.

Short yet bloody. Does this mean you think Germany would prevail quickly?

 

[zert]

In 1938 I am not sure if Italy would join in any fighting. I think Mussolini might play neutral and trade with both sides. he might even try to negotiate concessions for staying out of any fighting.

I think Germany would bloody the Czechoslovakians but in the end would not prevail. Now if the Soviets start to make a run against Germany, maybe deciding to barrel through Poland, we might get England and France into the fighting and see some really crazy alliances and sub wars.

 

[NoMommsen]

Taking szenario 2 from the OP :
The agreement between Hitler, Chamberlain, Daladier and Mussolini will be settled. The Czechs are told : accept or stay stay by yourself. The Czechs reject it.

With the - more or less - backing of a war or ... military execution of the agreement against Czechoslovakia, would the Oster-conspiracy still kick in ?

I would assume, that the generals back down and go with the "Führer" on this "small war" since the big war with the wallies seems to be avaoided - for the moment.

Italy would stay away as it did in Sept./Oct. 1939.

Dunno really if Romania would allow sowjet troops to enter the country at all. They would have to fear they stay ... at least in Bessarabia. And without a "thumb up" by the wallies I would assume zhey also woudn't dare to be drawn into war on themself.

The power and possibilities of the Wehrmacht - army as well as Luftwaffe (in terms of bombing capacity) - were overestimated at that time.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

In a pure Germany vs Czechoslovakia situation, the Germans crush the Czechs quickly like they did Poland. German military studies of her defences after the occupation found them ill equipped and positioned in ways that left them vulnerable to German artillery, while the historical Czech deployments would have played into German hands and likely seen most of their army destroyed near the border. Arguments that postulate the heroic Czechs repulsing the Germans in a bloody slaughter are based on rosy pre-war assessments by military officers who looked favourably on rows of Czech fixed fortresses (which could have been bypassed by the Germans anyways as a function of the annexation of Austria) and had no concept of the kind of fighting WWII would bring.

In fact the same assessment goes for a more general war since the Anglo-French aren't going to be launching any offensives given how early into their mobilization they were and how cautiously minded their military kinds were. The big difference is what happens afterwards: an invasion is going to be more destructive to Czech industry which Germany sorely needed to fuel her 39-40 campaigns. There is also the question of what the Soviets do. Munich's biggest disaster was really that it convinced Stalin to come to an accommodation with Hitler. The Anglo-French actually declaring war over Czechoslovakia could convince him no to abandon the united front policy. However, geography would be in the Soviets way, even with their agreement with Ronania, unless they attack Poland if the Poles try to play vulture on Czechoslovakia like they did OTL (although with the Anglo-French DoWing Germany for that, they might not do so)... which would then ironically make Poland and Germany into Allies. Even then though, shaking off the effects of the purges is going to take awhile. Regardless, without Soviet resources Germany is screwed by 1940-1941 even more so then they are without Czech resources even if they do manage to overpower France in 1939-40.

With the - more or less - backing of a war or ... military execution of the agreement against Czechoslovakia, would the Oster-conspiracy still kick in?

They probably wouldn't have kicked off even if Germany got into a more general war. Halder actually had little faith that his coup attempt would succeed, since he was sure it would be opposed by most of the rank and file, but he felt it was necessary to at least try so as to avert disaster. Some historians have portrayed it as a sure thing, but it was really a crazy roll of the dice, and all the odds were against its success, particularly if war had just been declared, an act that would rally the soldiers more closely behind Hitler. Halder quickly cancelled the attempt once the Munich agreement was announced, but had he proceeded his chances of success were, by his own estimation, low.

Given how Halder flinched from further coups and attempts on Hitler, it is likely that even had the Allies gone to war in 1938, he'd have flinched then as well. We have to remember that Halder wrote most of those histories, so we get a rather more favourable view of him than we would otherwise.

If they do give it a try, though, it would be immensely disruptive to the German war effort regardless of whether it succeeds or fails.

The power and possibilities of the Wehrmacht - army as well as Luftwaffe (in terms of bombing capacity) - were overestimated at that time.

Contemporary fears were indeed overblown, but it is also true that Germany was well into her own mobilization while her enemies were just starting their own.

 

[Shinsu]

while the historical Czech deployments would have played into German hands and likely seen most of their army destroyed near the border.

This would only happen if the second and fourteen army did their job quickly. The second army had the task of breaking the lines at Ostrava and they contained five divisions and one Panzer division and drive south until they hit Dimutz. The Fourteen army (which was made mostly of the Austrian army) had one division, 2 mountain brigades, one light division, one motorized division, and one panzer division. They were to break the lines at Breastslava and head north towards Dimutz. Both of those sections had very heavy fortifications and large garrisons.

The only other army that was even support to move was the 10th, which consisted of three divisions, three motorized divisions, one panzer division, and one light division. The 12th, fifth, and 8th armies were to stay put. This is also going to be happening in October, and it was rather bad weather during that period of time, so the use that the Luftwaffe would have could be very limited. The Czech airforce would also play a very minor of course, they were outnumbered ~4:1 in aircraft.