WI Pazzi conspiracy was succesfull?

Salviati and Francesco de' Pazzi put together a plan to assassinate Lorenzo and Giuliano de' Medici. Cardinal Riario himself remained in Rome. The plan was widely known, Pope Sixtus IV was reported to have said, "I support it — as long as no one is killed." In 2004 it was revealed that Feserico da Montefeltro, Duke of Urbino, a renowned humanist and Condotierre for the Papacy, was deeply embroiled in the conspiracy and had committed himself to position 600 troops outside Florence, waiting for the moment.
On Sunday, 26 April 1478 during High Mass at the Duomo before a crowd of 10,000, Giuliano de' Medici was stabbed 19 times by a gang that included a priest. As he bled to death on the cathedral floor, his brother Lorenzo escaped with serious, but non life-threatening wounds. Lorenzo appeared shortly after, locked safely in the sacristy by the humanist Poliziano. A coordinated attempt to capture the Gonfaloniere and Signoria was thwarted when the archbishop and head of the Salviati clan were trapped in a room whose doors had a hidden latch. The coup failed, and the enraged Florentines seized and killed the conspirators.
WI the Pazzi conspiracy was succesfull and Medicis were overthrown? How is this affects Italy and History? Any thoughts?
 
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Well i think that France would have much more power in Italy then it did in the real world and the religious landscape of Europe because the pope that was in power when the Protestants movement started was a Medici. The Spanish and Austria might have a little less power because the lose of a puppet state.
 
Well, the Medicis both being killed, and the Medicis being overthrown are different proposition. Its possible that both brothers are killed in the assassination attempt, but if that happened, then I think you would see the killers probably hunted down and killed in the same manner.

The plot against the Medici was inspired by a similar plot in Milan, which attempted to end the Sforzas' rule of Milan. The plot succeeded in killed the Duke of Milan, but didn't bring down the Sforzas.

I think you would see the Medici probably remain in some kind of prominence, since at this point the Medici were very popular among the populace of Florence.
 
Well, the Medicis both being killed, and the Medicis being overthrown are different proposition. Its possible that both brothers are killed in the assassination attempt, but if that happened, then I think you would see the killers probably hunted down and killed in the same manner.

The plot against the Medici was inspired by a similar plot in Milan, which attempted to end the Sforzas' rule of Milan. The plot succeeded in killed the Duke of Milan, but didn't bring down the Sforzas.

I think you would see the Medici probably remain in some kind of prominence, since at this point the Medici were very popular among the populace of Florence.

I think that if both Medicis were killed and the assassins were hunted down Pope Sixtus IV would have called Ferrante I King of Naples to invade Florence (which he did in OTL and only the intervention of Lorenzo Medici saved Florence). Without Lorenzo Don Ferrante would have overran Florence and offered it to the Pope...
 
How is a stronger Papacy (which would have annexed Florence after Don Ferrante's invasion) affecting Italy? Especially if Alexander VI is elected Pope as per OTL...
 
How is a stronger Papacy (which would have annexed Florence after Don Ferrante's invasion) affecting Italy? Especially if Alexander VI is elected Pope as per OTL...
Somehow, I dont see the pope getting away with annexing florence, especially in the long run (Neapolitains occupying it is a bit more likely). Attempting to do so makes martyrs out of the Medicis and will probably lead to open conflict with the conspirators and their backers.

Where it gets interesting is if and who Florence decides to call upon for aid. For instance, asking a foreign power such as france could spark a larger war for hegemony in italy. Alternativly, you might see the conflict confined to a few italian states, but either way the effects will be felt.

i wonder how the government of a medici admiring by not medici lead florence would turn out.
 
Somehow, I dont see the pope getting away with annexing florence, especially in the long run (Neapolitains occupying it is a bit more likely). Attempting to do so makes martyrs out of the Medicis and will probably lead to open conflict with the conspirators and their backers.

Where it gets interesting is if and who Florence decides to call upon for aid. For instance, asking a foreign power such as france could spark a larger war for hegemony in italy. Alternativly, you might see the conflict confined to a few italian states, but either way the effects will be felt.

i wonder how the government of a medici admiring by not medici lead florence would turn out.

Naples was a Papal fief and Pope's military arm... So i see Don Ferrante offering (or exchanging perhaps for something else) Florence to the Papacy... France's intervention would be interesting if they engage to war against the Pope... If Alexander VI is elected Pope France would react since they would feel endangered by a large Papal State and a Spanish Pope... Maybe they would give more money to Cardinal Sforza to secure his election as he was openly pro-french...
 
If the Pope has both the Medici brothers killed, then France would surely intervene. Lorenzo wore the French King's insignia as part of his family crest. The vacuum of power in Italy with the Medicis gone and Florence on the verge of falling would be too much too keep the over-the-Alps out of Italy.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The French aren't likely to intervene much sooner than they did in OTL if only because at the time France was under an unstable regency with various factions involved in the Mad War. In the mean time Florence might end up under some kind of loose Papal control but I have to agree that the Papacy/Naples is eventually going to come into conflict with their Florentine co-conspirators. Perhaps Savonarola comes to power a bit earlier in attempt to through out the city's corrupt overlords/occupiers.

So when France does move in to Italy one side trip might be to restore the Medici assuming that at least one of Lorenzo's children survives in exile. Thus the Medici might still be installed as Dukes although this time as French rather than Spanish clients. Probably this means they get tossed out again a couple times during the back and forth of the Italian Wars especially if France is ultimately forced out by Spain as in OTL.
 
A clash between Papacy/Naples/Spain against France? That would be interesting... But i see that France would try and influence the next Papal elections and elect a French or a pro-French Cardinal as Pope (maybe Cardinals De Foix or De Bourbon or Cardinal Sforza as a compromise candidate) in order to break the alliance between Papacy and Naples...
With a French Pope France has Florence in her pocket...
 
Naples was a Papal fief and Pope's military arm... So i see Don Ferrante offering (or exchanging perhaps for something else) Florence to the Papacy... France's intervention would be interesting if they engage to war against the Pope... If Alexander VI is elected Pope France would react since they would feel endangered by a large Papal State and a Spanish Pope... Maybe they would give more money to Cardinal Sforza to secure his election as he was openly pro-french...

Regardless of how close Naples is to the pope at the time, i am having trouble accepting that Ferrante would hand Florence over so meekly. Although keeping it and giving it to the pope produce roughly the same reaction, in the medium term.

i think you are all wrong
How so?
 
I think people are underestimating Florence. Lorenzo's diplomacy of OTL was to keep Florence's holdings intact. With the Medici brothers' both dead, Florence's leadership would be looking to simply keep the city from being occupied.

The Mad War ended in 1488, and that would seem to free up the French Regency to intervene in Florentine affairs. Though Charles VIII won't gain his majority for three more years, I can see a French show of force in order to keep Florence at least free of direct Neopolitan or Papal domination. In fact, I can even foresee Charles VIII gaining his majority sooner. He had massive ambitions in Italy, and with Florence in disorder this would seem an excellent time to intervene. Charles VIII's intervention would force both the Pope and Naples to back off.

In fact, Charles VIII might even use the Florentine-Naples war to justify his intervention in Italy. Claiming to be defending "the patrimony of my father's dear friend Lorenzo de Medici" he marches into Italy, saves Florence, then proceeds south to depose the King of Naples. Milan can't oppose Charles VIII because of an unstable regency, the Spanish are involved in Granada, Maximilian might be able to, but he's going to have issues accessing Italy since King Matthew of Hungary is sitting in Vienna as the Duke of Austria.

Charles can play politics in Milan, either opposing Ludovico Sforza's regency or promoting it, or even threatening the Sforza althougher with the promotion of his cousin Charles' claim on the Duchy of Milan.
 
I corrected the dates... I mistyped by mistake 1487 instead of the correct 1478...
Even if Don Ferrante doesnt hand over Florence to the Papacy France would have intervened in Italy fearing that it could be lost to Spanish... Especially with Cardinal Rodrigo de Borja scheming in Papal court and promoting Spanish interests...
It could be far fetched but its a thought... How about France deciding to kill the Pope (a swift assassination) and try to influence the election by electing a pro-french Pope (Cardinal Bessarion is a choice although he fell out with the French King in OTL a promise of a Crusade against Ottomans by the French could lure him to the French side...other potential candidates i see Cardinal GOnzaga or Cardinal Di Montferrato)
 
With the correct date of 1478, Louis XI intervenes in order to save the family of his friend, Lorenzo de Medici. This in turn would probably be relatively unopposed by the other concerned powers. Mary the Rich and her new husband Maximilian (of Hapsburg) will be left to consolidate power, which Louis XI doesn't really care about because Mary made massive concessions to get her possessions to back her- Maximilian's father is poor and weak and unable to intervene in Italy. The future Most Catholic Monarchs of Spain are either not on the throne yet (Ferdiand won't succeed until 1479) or fighting to keep their throne (Isabella was involved in the War of Castillian Succession that wouldn't end until 1479).

So long as Louis XI doesn't threaten doesn't threaten Don Ferrante I think that Ferdiand or Isabella would be drawn into a war in Italy. Granada is right there, and the Most Catholic Monarchs would start their OTL war on that kingdom in 1480.

So Louis could probably get France involved in Italian politics early. The intervention and presumable reordering of affairs in Florence (perhaps with Piero, the son of Lorenzo, made Duke of the city, under the regency of those close to the family who were already ruling?), and maybe an intervention in Milan. I think the creation of a hereditary Duchy in Florence actually makes sense under the conditions. The Medici are VERY popular, the city has almost been seized by outside forces, clearly there is a need for a more forceful sort of government. The young Piero as Duke would allow the regents to rule for a while, and create a system that would (theortically) restrain the power of the Duke.

Milan was disordered by the assassination of its duke in 1476, and in 1478 Ludovico Sforza did not have absolute power as regent. Louis XI would probably want to resolve that situation in France's favor- possibly by becoming involved in the regency. Maybe a marriage could be arranged to the young Gian, who in OTL married the granddaughter of Don Ferrante. Florence and Milan both made VERY amenable to French interests would certainly unset the balance of power in Italy, but not in the really major (land-grabbing) way that Charles VIII and Louis XII did.
 
So Louis could probably get France involved in Italian politics early. The intervention and presumable reordering of affairs in Florence (perhaps with Piero, the son of Lorenzo, made Duke of the city, under the regency of those close to the family who were already ruling?), and maybe an intervention in Milan. I think the creation of a hereditary Duchy in Florence actually makes sense under the conditions. The Medici are VERY popular, the city has almost been seized by outside forces, clearly there is a need for a more forceful sort of government. The young Piero as Duke would allow the regents to rule for a while, and create a system that would (theortically) restrain the power of the Duke.

Milan was disordered by the assassination of its duke in 1476, and in 1478 Ludovico Sforza did not have absolute power as regent. Louis XI would probably want to resolve that situation in France's favor- possibly by becoming involved in the regency. Maybe a marriage could be arranged to the young Gian, who in OTL married the granddaughter of Don Ferrante. Florence and Milan both made VERY amenable to French interests would certainly unset the balance of power in Italy, but not in the really major (land-grabbing) way that Charles VIII and Louis XII did.

In the case of Milan, couldn't Louis XI push to install the Duke of Orleans (future Louis XII) as the new Duke? After all, he had a claim to those lands.
 
In the case of Milan, couldn't Louis XI push to install the Duke of Orleans (future Louis XII) as the new Duke? After all, he had a claim to those lands.

Thought of it, the whole getting the bothersome Duke Louis out of France, but then I thought, why would Louis XI purposefully set up someone who could be a 'Charles the Bold mark II' with a claim on the French throne?
 
Louis XI had a claim on the Kingdom of Naples through his mother Marie d'Anjou... If Don Ferrante became too annoying in Florence he could put forward the claim to his crown...
 
So long as Louis XI doesn't threaten doesn't threaten Don Ferrante I think that Ferdiand or Isabella would be drawn into a war in Italy. Granada is right there, and the Most Catholic Monarchs would start their OTL war on that kingdom in 1480.

Don Ferrante of Naples felt Louis XI as a threat to his Kingdom since Louis had a claim on Naples through his mother Marie d'Anjou... Even if Pope Sixtus IV doesnt call the Neapolitans to his aid Don Ferrante would have intervened if Louis XI was engaged in Florence on behalf of Lorenzo Medici's children...
 
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